It’s Day Three of this tennis DFS week, and we get to see some star players in action right from the start. The third slate of this tennis DFS week has 16 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka, so let’s dive in.
Roger Federer (DraftKings $11,000; FanDuel N/A)
Roger Federer, the GOAT of the tennis world, is looking to capture another title in his home country this week. Federer is 26-5 on hard courts this year while taking home two trophies. The Swiss started out hot this week, firing down aces at a 24% rate in a 6-2, 6-1 win over Peter Gojowczyk. I don’t see anyone stopping him this week, and he has another favorable matchup tomorrow.
Federer has a meeting with Radu Albot, the ATP world number 49. Albot started the year off on a good note, taking down the title in Delray Beach. However, his level of play has dropped significantly. Albot is just 2-6 in his last eight matches, losing 29 service games in the process. He is a solid hard court player when his game is on, but I don’t see that happening against Federer. Federer should win this match fairly easily, while getting a hefty ace bonus.
Stan Wawrinka (DraftKings $9,900; FanDuel N/A)
Stan Wawrinka is back in action after having a stellar tournament at the U.S. Open. Wawrinka gave Novak Djokovic a straight-set beatdown before falling short to eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev. Wawrinka reached the finals in Antwerp last week, and arguably played his best tennis all year. He had the finals won before he completely fell apart in the second set, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Wawrinka has a first-round match against Pablo Cuevas, the ATP world number 45 from Uruguay. Cuevas is one of the game’s best clay court players, but he’s had a hard time matching that level of play on hard courts. He is 8-8 on the year on hard surfaces while taking down only one player ranked inside the top 50. These two have never played on hard courts, but Wawrinka is clearly the better player on this surface.
Borna Coric (DraftKings $8,300; FanDuel N/A)
Borna Coric was one of the top players on the ATP tour in 2018, as he took down top-10 players left and right. He has not had a great year in 2019, however, but he’s slowing finding his rhythm. Coric reached the finals in St. Petersburg last month before falling short to Medvedev, and he hasn’t had the easiest competition since. He is 1-2 since that tournament, but he ran into two hot players in Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev.
Coric has a first-round meeting with Mikhail Kukushkin, the ATP world number 57. Kukushkin has had a solid hard court campaign this year with a 15-14 record. He was 8-3 to start the year, but things have fallen off since. In his last three losses, Kukushkin faced 34 total break points while losing 14. His serve is one of the weakest on the tour and it shows in his 75% hold rate. Kukushkin is 3-0 against Coric with all matches coming on clay courts, and I think this is a perfect spot for Coric to get a confidence-boosting win.
Possible upset/value plays: Pablo Carreno Busta (DraftKings $7,300; FanDuel N/A)
Pablo Carreno Busta has been stellar since the U.S. Open with a 13-4 record while capturing a title in Chengdu. He’s taken down five top-40 players in straight sets during this run and I expect another deep run this week. Carreno Busta is winning 77% of first serve points while holding serve 85% of the time and he’s been even better on the return end. He had 68 break point chances during his last five matches while converting on 25 of them.
Carreno Busta will go up against Denis Shapovalov, the ATP world number 27 from Canada. Shapovalov is coming off of his maiden ATP title, as he took home the title in Stockholm. Denis didn’t drop a single set in that tournament while winning 92% of first serve points. I haven’t seen that level of play from him before and I’m sure he’ll be a popular play because of it. However, we’ve seen too many times where a tournament winner from the previous week takes a loss in the first round. I’m thinking that happens once again today.
Best of luck!