Who’s going to make it into the final week? We are into the sixth day of the fourth and final major of the year, as the US Open will be finishing up over the next week. The sixth slate of this tennis DFS week has 16 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We’ve got thoughts on Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios, so let’s dive in.
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Rafael Nadal (DraftKings $11,400; FanDuel $26)
Rafael Nadal has been outstanding on the hard courts since the end of Wimbledon, with a 6-0 record while capturing a title in Montreal. Nadal is 16-2 in 2019 on this surface, with the losses coming against Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. He’s lost just one set outside of those two losses, and at this rate, it’ll take a top five player to make him sweat. The world number two is looking to capture his fourth US Open title, and having three days of rest will certainly help his cause.
Nadal will have a third round meeting with Hyeon Chung, the ATP world number 170. Chung has played a ton of tennis here at the US Open over the last week, winning all three qualifying matches and then playing two epic five set matches. He won three straight sets to pull off the comeback Fernando Verdasco in his last match, and while he has confidence, I think the fatigue will show in this match. Chung lost six service games in that match while winning just 73% of first serve points. Nadal is going to make him run all over the place, and he should be able to get it done in straight sets.
Nick Kyrgios (DraftKings $8,500; FanDuel $17)
While he might be the most hated player on the ATP tour, Kyrgios has displayed some amazing tennis as of late. The ATP world number 30 is arguably the most talented player in the world, it just comes down to his mentality. Kyrgios is 9-2 on the hard courts over the last month while taking down a title in Washington. He is yet to drop a set at the US Open, and he has 48 aces to his name. Kyrgios is winning 80% of first serve points and 73% of second serves, which is good enough to beat anyone.
Nick will go up against Andrey Rublev, the ATP world number 43 from Russia. Rublev has been playing out of his mind over the last three weeks, with a 10-2 record while taking down two top 10 players. He is striking the ball at a ridiculous pace and players can’t seem to counter it. During this 12 game run, Rublev is winning 78% of first serve points while holding serve 89% of the time. However, hitting the ball as hard as he does can lead to a lot of unforced errors, and it’ll catch up with him eventually. Kyrgios is 1-0 against Rublev, with the one match coming on a hard court last October. I’m rolling with Nick to win in straight sets.
Bianca Andreescu (DraftKings $8,400; FanDuel $18)
Bianca Andreescu is the player to beat on the WTA tour, as she is 53-7 on the hard courts over the last 12 months. Bianca has lost just two matches since the Australian Open in January, while capturing three titles since that time. She is currently riding an 8 match win streak, and I don’t think anyone will be able to stop this train. Andreescu has been outstanding on the return end at the US Open. She’s converting on eight of her 18 break chances and she is yet to drop a set. She’s winning first serve points at a 73% rate, which is good for the WTA tour numbers.
Bianca has a third round clash with Caroline Wozniacki, the WTA world number 19 from Denmark. The former world number one hasn’t been great in 2019, with an 8-6 record on the hard courts. Caroline hasn’t had an easy road to the third round, as she had two three set matches against both Danielle Collins and Yafan Wang. She lost a total of five service games in those matches, and neither of those players matches up to the skill of Andreescu. These two met on December with Bianca coming out on top in straight sets, and I expect the same result in this match.
Possible upset/value plays: John Isner (DraftKings $7,300; FanDuel $18)
John Isner will be the chalk play of the slate tomorrow, and he’s almost a lock in all contests. The American big man is firing aces left and right, while blowing his way to six straight set wins here at the US Open. Isner has served 51 aces in this tournament and winning 86% of first serve points, while being broken just once. The ATP world number 14 is trying to get back to the quarterfinals for the second straight year. Given his playstyle and the hometown crowd behind him, Isner will be a tough out.
Isner is up against Marin Cilic, the ATP world number 22 from Croatia. Cilic has been nothing short of inconsistent over the last year, with a 14-13 record on the hard courts. He is 2-5 against top 20 players, and given the way he’s been playing, he’s going to be a tough player to roster in DFS. His stats in this tournament are all over the place, as Cilic is winning 84% of first serve points while double faulting 20 times. Cilic was arguably outplayed in his last match against Cedrik Stebe, the ATP world number 256, and that just doesn’t look good for him going forward. Cilic is 5-2 against Isner in his career, but he also hasn’t played this poorly in a long time. I’m going with John to win in four sets, while firing down a ton of aces.
Best of luck!