The early rounds of the French Open are coming to a close, as are the days of enormous thirty match Tennis DFS slates. Friday’s slate has sixteen matches, putting more emphasis on ownership. Top value plays will get more looks from the field, as will the spend-ups. But even though the pricing and value options are tight, Stokastic’s Tennis DFS projections are still showing strong targets to consider.
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French Open Tennis DFS Projections & Plays: Stephens, Musetti Cruising
Hubert Hurkacz, $9,000
Rinse and repeat. Hubert Hurkacz was the top points-per-dollar play in Stokastic’s Tennis DFS projections a couple of days ago, and returns to the top of the board for Friday’s slate. Hurkacz’s $9,000 salary is roughly commensurate with his 70% implied win probability, but he stands out for his ability to rack up aces.
Even on clay, the opportunity to reach the 15-ace bonus is a huge boost to Hurkacz’s ceiling and floor. He was one of the few players to do so in the early days at Roland Garros. The feat significantly helped his score in a match that went the full five sets. That wouldn’t be enough on a 28-match slate, but on tomorrow’s 16-gamer win equity and floor are much more attractive. The field is sharp, and a significant portion will understand that value. Hurkacz projects for 30.41% ownership, just below Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas, but don’t be surprised to see that number come in higher when the slate locks. Tomorrow’s smaller field will be comprised of more sharp players than the early days of French Open Tennis DFS.
Sloane Stephens, $8,300, Lorenzo Musetti $8,200
Sloane Stephens and Lorenzo Musetti rank 5th and 7th in points-per-dollar projection on Friday’s slate. Sandwiched between the two is Elina Svitolina at $8,500. What sets Stephens and Musetti apart from Svitolina is the ownership. The three players are extremely close in projection in salary. However, the slight boost in average projection for Svitolina– 53.82 compared to 52.6 and 51.24– is bumping Svitolina’s ownership to 26.03%. Give up the one or two points of projection and take the one or two percentage points of ownership discount on Stephens and Musetti. It’s minor, but you get the same players for less ownership and price.
There may be some upside to Stephens and Musetti, as well. Both have look to be playing incredible tennis. Stephens won her Round 1 and Round 2 matches in straight sets. Her last match was a 6-2, 6-1 beatdown of Varvara Gracheva in which Stephens recorded no double faults. She cruised by Karolina Pliskova 6-0, 6-4 in Round 1, also without double faulting.
Musetti has similarly won his first two matches of the French Open in straight sets. He completely dominated Alexander Shevchenko 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 on Wednesday. He didn’t double fault versus Shevchenko and recorded just one DF in his Round 1 victory over Mikael Ymer. You are going to need Musetti or Stephens in your lineup to win GPPs if one or both players posts a similar outcome on Friday.
Karolina Muchova, $7,800
The mid-range plays continue to show the best value for tomorrow’s slate. Stokastic’s Tennis DFS projections have Karolina Muchova at 48.34 fantasy points, which turns in solid points-per-dollar value at $7.800. Her points projection is only slightly lower than Anastasia Potopova‘s, but you’ll gain a bit of salary and a very slight ownership edge. Muchova projects for 22.72% ownership. With pricing and salaries efficient for Friday’s slate, it’s fine to take the discount, which can also allow more differentiation and make it a tad bit easier to avoid duplication.
Muchova’s odds and ownership may be depressed by her up-and-down play in the first two rounds at Roland Garros. She started the French Open with a victory over Maria Sakkari in straight-sets. However, both needed tiebreaks and could have easily gone the opposite way. Muchova defeated Nadia Podoroska in Round 2 in thee sets. She won the first and the third sets 6-3, but in between she suffered the 6-0 “bagel.” Nevertheless, the price and ownership are right for Muchova. And if she is that volatile, it could be a good thing for GPP upside.
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