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Is Novak Djokovic -130 a Lock to Win Wimbledon? 2021 Expert Wimbledon Odds, Picks & Predictions for ATP & WTA




Wimbledon Tennis Odds expert betting picks predictions best bets today England 2021 Roger Federer

The third major of the 2021 tennis season is upon us as Wimbledon begins in England on Monday, June 28. This is always my favorite tennis tournament to watch — the closest American sports comparison is the Masters, with the club that’s impossible to get into and the traditions that are simultaneously stuffy and charming. The last major, the French Open, saw a total of five new semifinalists, and this tournament should be just as unpredictable. We’ll be breaking down the entire 2021 Wimbledon field, as well as finding some of the best tennis odds and expert betting picks. 

Here’s a look at how my model expects this tournament to unfold.

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Wimbledon Betting Preview: Tennis Picks & Odds

Rafael Nadal withdrew from this tournament, leaving Novak Djokovic a massive -130 favorite to win it outright. There is no real value in that number despite Djokovic’s dominance, and the likelihood that he is going to roll through this tournament easily. While Djokovic is unlikely to lose, there are some outright prices that I like taking a stab at.

ATP Outright Odds

Felix Auger Aliassime +6600, Quarter +800: Lost in all of the talk about Auger Aliassime being 0-8 in his career in ATP Tour Finals is the fact that at age 21 Auger Aliassime has made it to eight tour finals. For reference, by age 21 Djokovic reached 12 finals (won nine of them), Stefanos Tsitsipas reached eight (won four), Daniil Medvedev reached his first final a month before turning 22, and Alexander Zverev reached 10 (won five of them). Grass is favored surface because he can use his huge serve and flat groundstrokes to overwhelm his opponents. His odds are depressed due to the quarter he was drawn into with Matteo Berrettini and Zverev. Berrettini is certainly a massive threat to reach the final, as he is in arguably the best form of anyone on tour outside of Djokovic. There are some questions about Zverev’s form on his least favored surface as he barely beat Dominik Koepfer and lost to Ugo Humbert in his only two matches on grass this year. Auger Aliassime also lost to Humbert in the semifinals at Halle but in the process beat Roger Federer in three sets. At some point he is going to 1) make a deep run in a major and 2) win a final, so why not do it at the biggest major of them all?

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Roger Federer +1100: There is not much left to be said about Federer at this point in his career. This price is as low as it is purely because of the questions surrounding his ability to stay healthy playing best-of-five tennis for two weeks. However, do not forget that he just made it to the Round of 16 at Roland Garros before withdrawing — not due to injury but due to his goal of being healthy for Wimbledon.

Roberto Bautista Agut Quarter +1000: It is tough to back Bautista Agut to win the entire tournament given he’s in the same half as Djokovic. However, he can win a wide-open quarter, especially considering Tsitsipas’ last appearance at Wimbledon (and last match on grass) saw him losing in the first round.

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Marin Cilic +6600, Quarter +850: Backing three 30-year-olds outright is very much not on brand. Yet it is impossible to overlook Cilic’s current level since the tour switched to grass. He has also long been known as a big-tournament player and is one of the very few active major winners on the men’s tour. 

As has been the case for the last few WTA majors, this tournament is wide open. The biggest favorite is Serena Williams, who hasn’t won a 1000-level or major tournament since 2017. If interested in betting on Williams to win her eighth Wimbledon title, her outright price is +600. The next shortest prices are Ashleigh Barty, Aryna Sabalenka, Garbine Muguruza and Iga Swiatek in some order. 

WTA Outright Odds

Ashleigh Barty +700: For as good as she is on clay, Barty’s best surface is actually grass. Tennis Abstract has her ELO on grass a full 100 points higher than anyone else on tour. Assuming she can manage to stay healthy for two weeks, she should be favored in every match. She also got an extremely favorable draw too, especially now that Johanna Konta was forced to withdraw due to COVID.

Angelique Kerber +5000, Quarter +1100: It has been a long few years for Kerber. After winning Wimbledon in 2018, she has struggled with form and injuries and simply hasn’t been able to find any consistency. She appears to have found some lately, though, as yesterday she won her first tournament since 2018 Wimbledon in Bad Homburg. She has won Wimbledon twice before and lost to Williams once in the final. This is her best surface, her favorite tournament, and she appears to be finding herself just in time for it. 

Garbine Muguruza +1400: This bet came before the draw was announced, and it is even better now. This setup for Muguruza is very similar to the Australian Open, where she lost to Naomi Osaka in a thrilling three-set match in the Round of 16. It would not shock if the winner of her match against Sabalenka in the Round of 16 ends up being the champion of this tournament as well. Muguruza has won here before, and before suffering a couple injury scares in her loss to Alize Cornet two weeks ago, she looked like she was in the best grass form of any woman on tour.

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Amanda Anisimova +6600, Quarter +1600: Prior to the tragic death of her father before the 2019 U.S. Open, it was Anisimova and not Coco Gauff or Iga Swiatek that was considered the most promising teenage prospect in the WTA. Anisimova was just coming off of an appearance in the semifinals of the French Open and looked like she was going to dominate the tour for years to come. She hasn’t been able to rediscover that form in the two years since, but recently there have been promising signs. She also hasn’t completely displayed it yet in her career, but this surface in theory is the one that suits her powerful game best. She also was somewhat fortunate in drawing Elina Svitolina in her section of the draw, a player Anisimova has had success against before. Svitolina is always a tough out in majors, but her counterpunching style means that the outcome of her matches mostly reside on her opponent’s racket. The matchup could be perfect for a red-lining Anisimova, and if she manages to get through that, then she has a huge chance to make a quarterfinals run at least. 

Top Round 1 Bets

Frances Tiafoe +2.5 sets, Moneyline +508: This is going to be Tsitsipas’ first match on grass in over two years. Tiafoe has played well since the surface change and may be able to pounce early and get a lead, offering up some live betting opportunities for hedging the moneyline.

Marton Fucsovics +150: Jannik Sinner is being priced as a -170 favorite despite having never won a match on grass at the ATP level in his career. Fucsovics has become known as an upset specialist in these big tournaments, and despite this not being his preferred surface either, he has a lot more experience he can work off of to get another upset here.

Alize Cornet +125: Bianca Andreescu just hasn’t played many matches on grass either, and Cornet just beat her on this surface two weeks ago. 

Moneyline Favorite Parlay Pieces

Roberto Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet, Benjamin Bonzi, Kevin Anderson, Marc Polmans, Karolina Pliskova, all the big favorites over -1000

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Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing [email protected].

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