The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Cincinnati Bengals in Sundays AFC Championship game with the winner punching their ticket to Super Bowl LVI. The Bengals find themselves once again on the road after beating the 1 seed Titans last week, while the Chiefs look to defend their home field in their fourth straight AFC title game appearance. The game will kick off at 3:00 P.M. EST live on CBS from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The betting lines currently sit at Chiefs -7.5 with an over/under coming in at 54.5. Be sure to stay tuned to OddsShopper throughout the day to ensure you get the best possible lines when placing your bets.
When analyzing this game as a whole, it is going to be tough for it to top what we seen last weekend between the Chiefs and Bills. Although we may not get the fireworks that game brought us, there is still plenty of opportunity in the market to make money. The lines for this game are very sharp and thus, no official plays will be coming on a side or total but rather in the player prop market. The best bet for this game is Joe Burrow over 288.5 passing yards. This bet is not only appealing at first glance, but it gets even better when you really dig deep into the matchup.
Joe Burrow is coming off of a game against the Titans where he was pressured all game long and sacked a total of nine times. In a game where he was essentially running for his life, he turned in a stat line of 28/37 with 348 yards passing. 348 yards passing in a game where they only scored 19 total points. A one-week sample size is not sufficient to make a bet so let’s rewind back to earlier this month when Burrow went 30/39 with 446 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. Who was that against you may ask? That was against these very same Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs defense is fresh off of a dominating performance by Josh Allen who threw all over them up and down the field resulting in 329 yards and 4 touchdowns. With the current state of the Chiefs secondary and the nature of the way the Chiefs win games, Burrow will be looking to exploit the leagues 27th ranked pass defense.
Going back to Burrow and the Bengals, they are coming into this game as 7.5-point underdog which means they have a good chance of playing from behind for a majority of this game. When you mix playing from behind, Burrow’s recent success against the Chiefs, how poor the Chiefs defense has looked against capable quarterbacks and finally the fact that this game should be high scoring game decided through the air you get one bet that makes a ton of sense.
Official Play: Joe Burrow Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-110)
