NFL Player Props are an incredibly fun — and profitable — way to bet on the NFL. Sportsbooks have so much ground to cover, given the massive number of options and player’s they post lines for. Using the OddsShopper NFL Player Props Tool, lets take a look at some of the best Week 16 options.
Najee Harris Receiving Yards: Under 22.5 (-115)
Betting unders on yardage props is generally a better way to go. Sportsbooks tend to base their lines on median outcomes — the average number of yards a player accrues. However, those medians are propped up by big outlier games. Using Harris as an example, it’s way more likely he racks up 50 receiving yards than negative five. However, it’s also more likely he finishes at 20 than 25. The mean is higher than the median — the number that half of all performances will fall under.
Harris specifically has been less active in the passing game as of late. He’s fallen short of 22.5 yards in four of his last five games. He went over that mark in six of his first nine games, but the recent results are the relevant data point here. This bet has the best expected return on investment (xROI) of all the NFL player props in week 16.
Samaje Perine Receiving Yards: Under 13.5 (-110)
Perine’s prop is another great example of the mean vs. median discussion. OddsShopper has his mean outcome pegged at 12.1 receiving yards — but still expects him to come in at 13 or less 70% of the time. Perine’s receiving role has shrunk this year, as Chris Evans (not that one) cuts into his target share when healthy.
The overall passing volume for Cincinnati should be a bit lower than normal this week as well. They’re three point favorites to Baltimore, and will likely to be content to run the ball should they play with the lead. Joe Burrow has topped 30 pass attempts in only tow of the Bengals eight wins this season. At Perine’s 7% target share, he’s likely to be held under three total targets. This bet has an xROI of 34%.
Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards: Over 26.5 (-118)
The third pick from the OddsShopper NFL Player Props Tool is an over. Courtland Sutton is the Bronco’s leading receiver (by yardage) as they take on the Raiders. Las Vegas has the league’s 25th ranked passing defense by DVOA, so efficiency should be up for the Broncos passing attack. This game is also a toss-up, so it’s unlikely Denver controls the game to the point of being able to run the clock out on the ground.
It’s also beneficial that Drew Lock is in at quarterback for the Broncos. He’s far more aggressive than Teddy Bridgewater, which is ideal for the deep-ball specialist Sutton. While Lock is mistake prone, that doesn’t matter for the prop. All it would take is one downfield connection to cash this over early. OddShopper gives this bet a 68% chance of winning, for an xROI of 26%.
