From the Slot: Divisional Round Sunday NFL Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

The Divisional Round presents one of the best short slates of the year, as we get eight elite teams going at each other over the course of two days. As such, it’s great to see some of the big sites offering big prizes, with DraftKings leading the way with a $3.5 million guaranteed Milly Maker event. Saturday starts off with the lowest totals of the weekend. The Rams – Packers have a 45-point over/under attached to it as of writing, although you can always go and check out the Oddsshopper tool (by Awesemo) and check out what each book is offering. The Rams also have three key players listed as questionable (Jared Goff, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp). It looks like all three will play, but there could definitely be a trickle down effect from Goff’s thumb — he looked terrible throwing it last week — and there’s also the chance both Kupp and Donald won’t play a full complement of snaps. So where are we going for our NFL DFS picks?

Other than the Rams, though, there’s not a ton of injury news to keep track of this week, which is a real nice change given all the COVID news we’ve had to deal with this year. Kansas City – Cleveland has the largest over/under at 57.0. This line opened around 55.5 and has seen some of the biggest movement of the week. It’s not a huge shock after the Browns and Steelers combined for 85 points last weekend. Ultimately, for DFS purposes, we will be getting eight teams at or close to the height of their powers, which should make for competitive games across the board. Expect high totals as we close out the second-to-last multi-game slate of the year this weekend.

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NFL DFS: Divisional Playoffs Picks, Grades & Values

QB: Patrick Mahomes Grades: A, Values: A

While there is a Josh AllenLamar Jackson battle coming up on Saturday, it’s quite clear from the Awesemo model this week who it prefers at quarterback. Mahomes doesn’t just grade out as the top projected points getter at his position, but he’s the clear cut No. 1 with an over 3-point differential between him and second place. The 29.06 projection is definitely an eye-catching number given that we have so many elite quarterbacks to choose from, but it’s also one that shouldn’t shock us. Mahomes clearly has the best matchup on the board of all eight quarterbacks given Cleveland’s defensive issues of late, particularly against the pass.

The Browns allowed 501 yards passing last week and are still dealing with depth issues at pass rusher and in the secondary, where they’ll be under constant barrage from the Chiefs speedy receivers. Despite being in such a good spot and $500 less in salary than his last time out, Mahomes doesn’t project with outrageous ownership, so we don’t really need to think about fading him either. He’s also easy to stack with either one of his main targets — Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, in case that wasn’t clear — and you can even think about adding in lower-owned fliers like Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman. You can get fancy elsewhere, but starting fantasy lineups with Mahomes makes almost too much sense this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 28.9%

RB: Aaron Jones Grades: B, Values: B

The Rams were a top-five rush defense this year, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game, but they were actually easier to run against than pass. Running backs opposing the Rams also did well in the pass game as Los Angeles gave up the 13th-most receptions to the position during the regular season. For his part, Jones has come on since his mid-season injury and averaged 6.25 yards per carry over his last four games. The Packers ran the ball well down the stretch, and they did it against some good run defenses like Philadelphia and Tennessee too.

The tendency here might be to avoid paying up for the Packers skill players this week, but don’t forget that they come in as big favorites with a decent enough 26-point implied total. The matchup could easily end up producing a great game script for Jones, who will undoubtedly be the man the Packers look to to ice the game for them if they are up late. He ranks second in overall point projections on Awesemo this week and also is also tied with Alvin Kamara for the top-graded running back (no A’s were awarded), making him the perfect high-end GPP pivot.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 26.4%


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WR: Stefon Diggs Grades: A, Values: A

Diggs has essentially been unstoppable/unfadeable of late. He has now produced 27 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games and schooled a decent Colts defense last week for 128 yards on just six catches. The Ravens secondary is one of the best in the league, but even the athletic Marcus Peters, who likes to take risks, is in danger of being burned here. Diggs has matched up with some of the better secondaries in the league down the stretch — Pittsburgh, New England, Miami — and came out on top each time.

While he was the uber-chalk last week, Diggs’ ownership, while still projecting in the top three at his position, will be at least somewhat suppressed here due to the inclusion of Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill on this slate. The Bills threw the ball the fourth-most times per game in the regular season and will undoubtedly keep that same high-volume pass offense going here, especially with Zack Moss out. Diggs is a great pay-up candidate and the best combo of pure point projection and value score at wide receiver this week on the site.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 30.3%

TE: Austin Hooper Grades: C, Values: B

Perhaps you just want to fade the insanely high ownership that is likely to be attached to Travis Kelce, or maybe you just want to target the Chiefs wide receivers instead. Either way, lets pretend Kelce doesn’t exist for a second and talk about the other tight end in this game.  Hooper comes in averaging 9.5 targets now over his last four games as the Browns have moved to a more tight-end-centric offense late in the season to balance out the Odell Beckham departure. Hooper has also become a solid red zone target for the Browns and leads all Cleveland receivers in that area the last three games.

One or two of the Browns receivers here are likely to see 10 targets in this game — given the 10-point spread — and with Kansas City as the opponent, you have to like Hooper’s chances of leading the Browns receivers here. The Chiefs allowed a 71% completion rate to tight ends this year — and nine touchdowns to tight ends too — and also allowed the fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers. Hooper rates out well on Awesemo too, with the third-best points and value score (second best in both behind Kelce) and ownership levels projected to be under 15% (as of writing). He’s a solid pay-down target, and you could even consider stacking him with Kelce in the Flex.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.9%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Tom Brady/Chris Godwin

Godwin projects as the top wide receiver from the Buccaneers’ elite trio and has the sixth-best points projection for wide receivers on the slate as well. The plus athlete is likely to see the most time in the slot of the three (as he normally does), which should mean he’ll be matched up against nickel corners most of the game. The Saints secondary is deep, but Buccaneers wide receivers have been tough to stop of late as Tampa wideouts have now accounted for 17 touchdowns over their last seven games. Godwin also burned the Saints last season for three touchdowns in a similar role alongside Mike Evans, whom Godwin grades better than on Awesemo in both value score and points projection.

As for Brady, he comes in averaging 29.90 DraftKings points over his last four outings. Tampa Bay clocked in with the sixth-most pass attempts per game in the regular season, and Brady has now thrown the ball 40-plus times in three of his last four starts. The Saints are a tough matchup and likely why Brady is only the fourth-ranked quarterback in points projection this week on Awesemo, but he still has a great value score and will bring very palatable ownership when paired with Godwin, who led the team in targets last week.


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