NHL DFS Picks Today: Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel; Connor McDavid and the New Jersey Devils (October 18)

It’s an 8-game slate in the NHL tonight which gives us a sizable sample from which to pluck our DFS picks. We will be covering options on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though players are often good values/plays on both sites. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check our subscriber-only Discord periodically, most importantly at warmups, for lineup changes or injuries.

NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Connor McDavid (EDM vs. BUF): DraftKings – $8,600 | FanDuel – $10,400

Connor McDavid has picked up where he left off last year after winning the scoring title with four goals, five points, and nine shots in his first two games. In typical Edmonton fashion, the team has shuffled their lines around and McDavid is skating once again with Evander Kane. With those two on the ice together since Kane landed in Edmonton, the Oilers score 4.1 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, considerably higher than when McDavid is on the ice without him (2.9). Having Kane back on his wing brings a whole new dimension of offensive threat to that line.

Buffalo is in town and McDavid should see lots of minutes against Tage Thompson on Buffalo’s own top line. Though Thompson and Jeff Skinner have been very successful offensively, they are allowing nearly three expected goals and four actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. McDavid is getting a great offensive matchup against the Sabres and that’s why he finds himself at the top of our list, as he is most nights when he plays. He is fine to use by himself or with his line mates in any format tonight.

Boone Jenner (CBJ vs. VAN): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $5,200

Injuries and underperformance have forced Columbus to shuffle their lines a bit. Of late, Boone Jenner is skating not only on the top line with Johnny Gaudreau but he’s also on the team’s top power-play unit as well. Jenner is skating over 20 minutes a night so far this season as he did last year and he can post solid shot rates when he’s getting that much ice time; he was at 2.7 shots per game last year and his early rate this season sits at 3.7.

Vancouver played last night in Washington with Thatcher Demko in net. That puts the Canucks on a road back-to-back with backup goalie Spencer Martin in net. Columbus has struggled to open the season but this matchup isn’t overly difficult.

At his price, Jenner comes fifth in value by our projections for mid-range centers on DK priced between $4,000 and $6,000, and top in value on FD for centers between $5,000 and $6,500. He is solid by himself but of course can be used with his correlated wingers in tournament stacks.

Winger

Nikita Kucherov (TBL vs. PHI): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $9,200

Philadelphia has won both of their games to start the year but they should be thanking their goalie. They have allowed just two goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 against 3.4 expected goals against. The overall team save percentage (.940) is flirting with the top-5 in the league and most teams can’t rely on great goaltending like this every night. Regression comes for us all.

Though Tampa Bay has struggled defensively to start the year, it has been a fine offensive start for Nikita Kucherov. He has 12 shots and three assists through three games and though he has no goals, with that shot volume, it’s a matter of time before the dam breaks. He has shot at least 14% in seven straight seasons and his level of production should tick up sooner rather than later.

When Kucherov is skating with Brayden Point this year, the team controls 59% of the expected goals and generate 2.9 per 60 minutes. They should continue to generate offence against a defensively weak Flyers team, it’s just a matter of getting through the goaltending. Even at his huge price, Kucherov is one of our top values on both DraftKings and FanDuel among expensive flanks.

Andrew Mangiapane (CGY vs. VGK): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,800

It has been a good start to the 2022-23 season for the 35-goal scorer from a year ago as Andrew Mangiapane has a goal and an assist through the team’s first two games. What is more important is that he and newly-signed center Nazem Kadri have shown early chemistry, generating 4.8 expected goals per 60 minutes in very limited minutes. Both players are excellent in areas like controlled zone entries and scoring chance assists, both areas that help teammates generate offence consistently. That they’re both capable of 30-goal seasons only adds to their dynamic offensive profile.

Vegas is visiting Calgary this evening and the Golden Knights have looked strong to start the year, starting with three wins in three games and controlling nearly 64% of the expected goals at 5-on-5. However, the second-line duo of Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone have been a weak link defensively, posting 3.5 expected goals against per 60 minutes. They should improve but we want to take advantage of subpar defensive play while we can.

The Flames spread around ice time a lot and that can make relying on expensive players difficult. With Mangiapane’s reasonable price, he should be considered as a one-off for tournaments tonight, or even alongside Kadri.

Alexander Holtz (NJD vs. ANA): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $5,000

It has been an uneven start for Alexander Holtz, as he’s been moved around the lineup. He’s still managed six shots and one goal in two games playing under 12 minutes a night. The 20-year-old had a high shot rate last year in the minor leagues as he’s a prospect the team hopes to be a high-end goal scorer for them in the near-future.

We find Holtz in this column because he has finally been moved back to the top line alongside Nico Hischier. Hischier had a breakout season in 2021-22 with 60 points in 70 games and is one of the top young two-way centers in the league. It is a good spot for Holtz to be as he gets a reliable offensive center but should not have to be overly concerned with the defensive side of the puck.

More than anything, of course, is Holtz’s price here; he is the stone minimum on DraftKings. He may carry reasonable ownership because of this but Anaheim is on the second night of a back-to-back with their backup goalie likely to start. Given all the positives for Holtz and his matchup tonight, he’s hard to ignore in any format whether by himself or alongside Hischier.

For a cheap option on FanDuel, Joel Farabee (PHI – $4,000) is the only winger we have projected for over 10 FD points tonight but priced at $4,000 or less.

Defense

Roman Josi (NSH vs. LAK): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $7,500

It has been a bit of an unlucky start to the year for Roman Josi as he’s been on the ice for five Nashville goals yet has just one point, an assist. Historically, he registers a point on 60% of goals scored with him on the ice, not 20%, and that’s the unlucky part here. He is sure to turn it around and as long as the team keeps tallying with him on the ice, the points will come.

Josi brings more than just potential point production, though. He has 14 shots and seven blocks in four games, hitting the DK shot bonus once and the block bonus twice already. It is his versatile fantasy profile that makes him so valuable, and that Los Angeles is in Nashville on a back-to-back makes this a good matchup for the Predators’ captain. Josi leads our defense projections on both sites which is what makes him palatable as the most expensive blue liner on the slate.

Chris Tanev (CGY vs. VGK): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,800

With Vegas going into Calgary tonight, there could be a lot of opportunity for the shot-blocking for Chris Tanev. Over the previous three seasons, he has averaged over two blocks per game and hit the DK block bonus on 25 occasions in 2021-22. He has been skating a bit more per game (21:47) than he did a year ago and more ice time usually leads to better peripherals. The reason for using Tanev tonight is quite simple: he is very cheap and could rack up shot blocks against the Golden Knights.

Over on FanDuel where blocks aren’t as important, Cody Ceci (EDM, $3,900) is a cheap defenseman that should be considered. He is playing huge minutes early in the season, skating over 23 minutes in each of his first two contests. As mentioned in the section on McDavid, this is a good matchup for the top Oilers skaters and Ceci’s price on FD means he doesn’t need much for a successful fantasy evening. He leads cheap FD defensemen ($4,000 or less) in value by our projections.

Goalie

Anton Forsberg (OTT vs. BOS): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $7,200

Though it’s not a large sample, Anton Forsberg has a high-danger save percentage of .847 at 5-on-5 in his 56 games with Ottawa. Across the league, that is tied for fifth and the four goalies ahead of him are mostly the top goaltenders in the world. We need to see more from Forsberg to make a determination but for now, he’s played very well for Ottawa, which has carried into this season. Boston played last night and that makes this a road back-to-back for the Bruins. Our goalie stats have Forsberg first in projected saves tonight by a comfortable margin and that makes him a good value for his price on both sites.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Today

NJD2: Sharangovich-Hughes-Bratt

While it was Holtz discussed earlier in this column, the duo of Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt also needs strong consideration tonight. When New Jersey has had those two on the ice over the last three seasons, the team has generated 3.5 expected goals and 3.2 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, very good offensive numbers. Hughes has been playing huge minutes early in the season and the trio as a whole are reasonably priced tonight. This forward group has positive leverage by our Top Stacks tool, which is always a good sign when looking for stacking options.

TBPP: Point-Kucherov-Stamkos

A year ago, the Philadelphia Flyers were 26th in the league by both expected goals against and actual goals against while on the penalty kill. They have been better to start this season but it’s only been a pair of games and Tampa Bay has been top-10 on the power play over the last couple campaigns. This particular combination is expensive tonight but it is a good matchup for the special teams. Even on separate lines, Steven Stamkos and Kucherov are top-5 by our DK projections and top-3 on FD.

*Additional stats from Corey Sznajder’s Patreon and Natural Stat Trick

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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