It is the first full Saturday of the NHL DFS season and there are 24 teams from which we can make our picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. That requires a lot of sifting through our projection, ownership, and stack data that are all available for Stokastic subscribers. Perhaps more importantly, there are a few teams in back-to-back situations as well as key injury news, which makes our subscriber-only Discord so valuable. Non-subscribers have one more day to take advantage of our NHL promo to get seven days of our NHL+ package for just $7. Use the promo code POWERPLAY at checkout to see what we’re all about.
Alright, let’s get to the slate.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
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Jack Hughes (NJD vs. DET): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,300
It was a tough first game for New Jersey, losing in Philadelphia, but Jack Hughes skated nearly 23 minutes in that contest. A potential return of Nico Hischier would temper that ice time level a bit but he’s still expected to skate heavy minutes as he did last season.
Of note here is Jesper Bratt being moved alongside Hughes. In over 460 minutes together at 5-on-5, they generated 3.4 expected goals and 3.1 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are very good offensive numbers and speak to the chemistry they have together. Hischier entering the lineup could shake up the lineup so Stokastic members should check our Discord through the day for updates but having Bratt and Hughes together is a boost for both.
On the day, Hughes is third in expected value for centers over $6,000 on DraftKings per our projections, and fifth on FanDuel. The expected ice time combined with good offensive numbers and catching the Red Wings on the second night of a back-to-back means Hughes is very much in play for us tonight. He makes a lot of sense in a two-man stack with Bratt for tournaments, or just full stacking the entire top line, adding Yegor Sharangovich.
Dylan Strome (WSH vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $4,900
It has been a tough start for Washington, losing their first two games and being outscored 8-4 over the span. Those were against Boston and Toronto, though, and Montreal is in town tonight, having played last night in Detroit. That means a backup goalie and a (hopefully) tired Canadiens team for the Capitals to take advantage of.
The tough Washington start has led to line changes, and that has pushed Dylan Strome to the top line with elite left wing Alex Ovechkin. Those two also skate together on the power play so now there is significant correlation here and with the line change coming at morning skate, Strome’s price hasn’t adjusted across the industry. He isn’t super-elite, but he usually has good zone entry and playmaking stats. That is a profile that can help Ovechkin’s, and by extension Strome’s, production.
At his price, with the new line mate and in this matchup, Strome should carry a lot of ownership tonight. He and Ovechkin could end up among the highest-owned players on the slate. However, with 12 games tonight, there should be plenty of opportunity to differentiate lineups and that brings them both square into play for us in all formats.
Winger
Timo Meier (SJS vs. CHI): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $7,200
To put it bluntly, San Jose has not looked strong to start the year. The team is winless in three games and are struggling to generate offence consistently. They are on a back-to-back, having played last night at home, but are hosting a Chicago team that has yet to score at 5-on-5 in their two games. It is a battle between the stoppable force and the movable object.
With all that said, Meier and Tomas Hertl have had very good chemistry over the years. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons, the Sharks generate 3.0 expected goals and 3.3 actual goals per 60 minutes. Meier is also one of the highest shot-volume players in the league: sixth among all forwards, just behind Ovechkin, in shots per minute over those same three years. Skating over 20 minutes a night so far this season, he has 14 shots in three games. That is a lot of peripheral value.
Despite San Jose’s tough start, they are hosting what should be a weak Blackhawks team and Meier is grading out as our top value winger over $6,000 on either site. He needs to be considered in all formats for this slate.
Pavel Buchnevich (STL vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $6,600
Across the two sites, Pavel Buchnevich ranks third and eighth, respectively, in value among mid-priced wingers. There are a couple reasons for that.
First is that they’re hosting a Columbus team playing their second game in as many nights, and their third in four. Though starting goalie Elvis Merzlikins is expected to make his season debut, the Jackets have been as bad defensively this year as they were last year (bottom-3 in the league by many metrics). It is a prime situation for the Blues’s home opener.
Second, Buchnevich is skating with arguably the team’s two best offensive options in Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko. In their near-370 minutes together at 5-on-5, they’ve generated 3.1 expected goals and 5.4 actual goals per 60 minutes, which are huge offensive numbers. They all skate together on the power play as well.
The one concern is ice time. Buchnevich skated less last season per game (18:11) than he did in his final season with the New York Rangers (18:44). But this is a wonderful matchup for him and his line mates and he has very reasonable prices tonight, particularly on DraftKings.
Craig Smith (BOS vs. ARI): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,200
A big issue with using Craig Smith in DFS historically is a lack of ice time, and sometimes quality line mates. He hasn’t skated 16 minutes a night in nearly a decade and has been under 15 minutes a game for four season (including this one). It could change tonight as he’s been moved to the top Boston line, alongside Patrice Bergeron, due to the injury to Jake DeBrusk. He may or may not earn many more minutes, but he will get good line mates.
Smith is always considered in DFS because of his shot rate; going back to the start of the 2021 season, he’s in the 90th percentile for shot rate in the league. Despite skating less than 14:30 a game last year, he hit the DK shot bonus on eight occasions. At such a cheap price across the industry, he has a lot of upside in one of the best matchups Boston will have with Arizona in town.
Of course, because of his price and matchup, he will carry a lot of ownership tonight, even on a 12-game slate. Regardless, he is still at the top of our list for punt-type wingers tonight and his new line could help him have a great night on a per-dollar basis.
Defense
Dougie Hamilton (NJD vs. DET): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $5,400
We don’t like to double up on players from the same team in this article on a slate this size, but Dougie Hamilton’s price on FD tonight is too good to ignore. Among mid-priced blue liners on FanDuel ($4,500 – $5,500), Hamilton is second in projection and fifth in value. He often relies on peripherals, which matter more on DraftKings, but he has a good home matchup tonight as does Hughes mentioned above. He skated over 22 minutes in the team’s first game and will be running the team’s top PP unit. Hamilton requires our attention on FanDuel tonight.
On DraftKings, teammate Damon Severson ($3,500) could earn the most ice time of any Devils defenseman and has a very cheap price.
Adam Larsson (SEA at VGK): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $4,200
Seattle has looked good defensively this year, but Adam Larsson has still managed to rack up five blocked shots in two games. Over the prior three seasons, he averaged 1.9 blocks per game, meaning he’s a block-bonus threat on DK every night. He has skated near or over 23 minutes in the team’s first two games and being on the road in Vegas should give him lots of opportunities to block shots. The team’s offensive potential means he could even chip in an assist to give him a very good night – he grades out as our top projected and value defenseman at $3,000 or less on DK.
On FanDuel, at a similar price, Mark Giordano (TOR, $4,300) projects very strongly for us tonight, leading the way for bargain blue liners.
Goalie
Juuse Saros (NSH at DAL): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,700
These two teams matched up a couple days ago and we were on the opposing goalie for virtually the same reason as we should consider Juuse Saros tonight: cheap price. He has the second-highest projection for any DK goalie priced $7,500 or less and is fifth at $7,800 or less on FD. Over the last three seasons, Saros is fourth in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5, one indicator of goalie talent. This is a very good goalie at a cheap price that can have a big night on any occasion. He warrants strong consideration for tournaments this evening.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
STL1: Buchnevich-Thomas-Tarasenko
As mentioned in the section on Buchnevich, this trio has been excellent offensively for the Blues and get a great home matchup tonight. Our early ownership runs have them around 7-8% owned on DraftKings and much lower on FanDuel. Such a big slate can dilute ownership and that is good news for those of us intending to use this particular St. Louis line. Columbus coming to town presents no matchup issues at 5-on-5 for the penalty kill so there are a lot of things favoring this threesome tonight (phrasing?). Torey Krug is expected to be their power-play defenseman for anyone looking to get a bit different or go full power-play stack.
TOR2: Malgin-Tavares-Nylander
The duo of John Tavares and William Nylander have had a lot of third wheels over the years, but Denis Malgin is a great addition here. When he was in Florida, Malgin tended to have good zone entry and playmaking data but was infrequently given good line mates. He has great line mates here and the trio has been dynamite early in the season, generating roughly four goals and four expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Toronto is hosting Ottawa and though the Senators got stronger offensively in the offseason, the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Our Top Stacks Tool has this trio under 5% on both DK and FD tonight, even though they’re not overly expensive and have a great matchup. Malgin can be left off in favor of adding more expensive PP options like Auston Matthews, but the Toronto second line checks a lot of boxes for projection, value, matchup, and ownership tonight.
Additional stat from Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder’s Patreon
