DraftKings MLB DFS Cheat Sheet For August 19: Projections, Ownership, And Stacks
By Sam Smith
August 19, 2026
Tonight's free DraftKings MLB DFS cheat sheet from Stokastic opens with rare agreement: the field and the Sims both make Cleveland's Parker Messick (18.7 projected points, 35.2% ownership, 41.3% top-150 exposure) the settled SP1. The disagreement starts at the second pitcher slot and runs through the bats, and that is where August 19 gets won. The Eugenio Suarez build I keep coming back to is below.
The Quick Answer
Messick against the Giants is the SP1 I'm not moving off. The second slot is a real trade: Logan Gilbert projects 18.5 to Dustin May's 15.6, so the pivot costs about three projected points. What it buys is the field — Gilbert's 28.3% ownership essentially matches his 28.0% top-150 exposure, while the sheet doesn't print May's ownership, but exposure minus leverage implies roughly 14%. In a large-field GPP I pay the points and make May my SP2; in cash, take Gilbert. Stack Houston or the Dodgers at Coors, tied at 8.0%, and center the bats on Suarez, the board's top leverage play at 15.7%. The full panels and a Suarez-centered example build are below.
Today's Board: Messick Is Settled, Nothing Else Is
| Panel | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Projections (Proj FP) | Parker Messick 18.7 | Logan Gilbert 18.5 | Chase Burns 17.0 | Dustin May 15.6 | Drew Rasmussen 15.5 |
| Highest Ownership (Own%) | Parker Messick 35.2% | Logan Gilbert 28.3% | Shohei Ohtani 25.7% | Mookie Betts 18.2% | Chase Burns 17.9% |
| Top Values (Value) | Austin Wells 2.86 | Josh Lowe 2.78 | Michael Toglia 2.68 | Colton Cowser 2.68 | Alex Call 2.62 |
| Top Exposures (Exp%) | Shohei Ohtani 41.3% | Parker Messick 41.3% | Logan Gilbert 28.0% | Dustin May 26.7% | Eugenio Suarez 25.3% |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Eugenio Suarez 15.7% | Shohei Ohtani 15.3% | Dustin May 12.4% | Salvador Perez 12.2% | Daulton Varsho 12.0% |
| Top 5-Stacks (5-Stack%) | HOU 8.0% | LAD 8.0% | STL 4.7% | LAA 4.7% | BAL 4.0% |
DraftKings rosters two pitchers, and Gilbert and May oppose each other in Milwaukee, the pairing question the correlation guide walks through: only one of them collects the win bonus and a slugfest sinks both, though a clean duel can pay both sides. I still take just one, mostly for salary and roster room, and the ownership math above says that one is May. Chase Burns (17.0) is the third arm at 17.9% ownership, though the same Sims build St. Louis stacks at 4.7% against him, a two-sided Cardinals-Reds game.
The stack panel is a tie at 8.0% with opposite personalities. The Dodgers at Coors against lefty Kyle Freeland are the ceiling play and the field knows it: Shohei Ohtani (25.7% owned, 41.3% exposure) and Mookie Betts (18.2%) both crack the ownership panel, with Dodger Alex Call (2.62 value) as the salary-saving fifth bat DraftKings' five-batters-per-team limit demands. Houston earns the same 8.0% of Sims builds against Walbert Urena with Daulton Varsho (12.0% leverage) its only bat on any panel — and no Astro cracks the top-five ownership board, which is the appeal: the same stack rate without the visible ownership. Full projections, ownership and stack tables live in MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub.
Worked Example: The Suarez Row Into A Build
Suarez leads the leverage panel at 15.7% with 25.3% top-150 exposure, and exposure minus leverage implies roughly 10% ownership: a quarter of the Sims' best lineups on a bat one in ten opponents rosters, a right-handed power hitter at home against lefty Matthew Liberatore. So my roster shape, salary and positions allowing: Messick and May at pitcher, five Astros including Varsho, then Suarez with Reds teammate Michael Toglia (2.68 value) as the two-man mini-stack. That fills nine spots, and catcher Austin Wells (2.86), the value panel's leader, is my tenth. One five-stack, one mini-stack, two leverage pillars — the shape the tournament guide argues for.
FAQ: August 19 Slate
Can I stack the Reds instead of playing Suarez naked? The Sims say two bats, not five: Suarez and Toglia are the only Reds on any panel, and Cincinnati never cracks the 5-stack board against Liberatore.
What if Kyle Freeland gets scratched? The Dodgers' 8.0% is built on the Coors-plus-lefty matchup; a scratch reprices that whole stack, so recheck the sheet at lock.
The Sims Behind The Free Sheet
The cheat sheet is free. The paid layer is Stokastic Sims, the engine that built it: the exposure panel above is the visible top of the ROI-ranked lineup pool, and the full product adds Ownership Projections and Boom/Bust ranges for every bat on tonight's board, walked through in the MLB DFS Sims guide. Code CHEAT discounts a Stokastic MLB DFS weekly or monthly package. 21+.