MLB DFS 7/27: Wheeler Locks FanDuel, Burns Faded
July 27, 2026
Monday's slate has one true problem to solve before anything else: a Cincinnati Reds-Cleveland Guardians game sitting under a severe thunderstorm watch, with the slate's single most expensive pitcher on the mound in the middle of it. Eric Lindquist spends most of MLB DFS Live Before Lock managing that one risk, and the way he does it, dropping the arm's exposure to almost nothing without ever pulling him out of the simulation pool, is the through-line for the whole build. On FanDuel, the weather problem barely matters, because the alternative is close to a mandatory play regardless. That FanDuel answer, and what it took to get there, is below.
Zack Wheeler — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) is drawing 31% ownership on FanDuel against a Miami Marlins lineup that's lost in bunches on the road, and Eric Lindquist is playing him in 100% of his FanDuel lineups with zero exposure to the field's other popular arm.
- Chase Burns (CIN), the slate's priciest DraftKings arm, is facing a severe thunderstorm watch in Cincinnati. Lindquist filtered him (and the whole Reds-Guardians game) down to near-zero exposure without removing the game from his simulation pool, so he can restore it fast if the game is confirmed clean closer to lock.
- Curtis Mead (BOS), acquired from Washington for left-hander Connelly Early just two days before this slate, is in the Red Sox's No. 2 hole at $3,200 on FanDuel, adding to what was already Lindquist's favorite stack of the day against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins (ATH).
- Pittsburgh (PIT) against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly (ARI) is the show's favorite contrarian FanDuel stack, leaning on lefty bats against a shorthanded Diamondbacks bullpen after left-hander Brandyn Garcia (ARI) threw 25 pitches a day earlier.
- Houston (HOU) against the Los Angeles Angels, with Tatsuya Imai (HOU) on the mound, and the Toronto-Washington game marking the return of Max Scherzer (TOR) from the injured list round out Lindquist's favorite stacks on both sites.
Watch The Video
Eric Lindquist runs the full DraftKings-to-FanDuel build live below, weather calls and lineup swaps included, right up to Monday's first pitch.
Zack Wheeler Is About As Close To A Lock As FanDuel Gets
FanDuel locks at 6:40 p.m. Eastern (3:40 p.m. Pacific), 30 minutes before DraftKings' 7:10 p.m. Eastern lock, and Lindquist wants that extra half hour spent on the Reds-Guardians weather call, not on second-guessing his top FanDuel pitcher. Wheeler is already the field's most popular arm at 31% ownership, well ahead of Chase Burns (CIN) at 15%, and Lindquist is fine with that: Miami's lineup leans heavily left-handed (Kyle Stowers (MIA) and Griffin Conine (MIA) both carry real strikeout risk against right-handers) and has been losing at a brutal clip on the road into a pitcher-friendly park. "Zack Wheeler is on another planet," Lindquist said, going 100% Wheeler across all five of his FanDuel lineups with zero exposure to Burns on that site. Kyle Bradish (BAL) at $9,500 is the other arm getting real ownership, and Lindquist called him fine, just already priced for the field to find him.
The Chase Burns Weather Call
DraftKings is where the real decision lives. Burns projects as the highest-scoring pitcher on the board, but Cincinnati is sitting under a severe thunderstorm watch that Lindquist tracked for most of the broadcast, and a home Guardians lineup fueled by a returning Jose Ramirez (CLE) gives the matchup real two-way risk even before the rain. Rather than deleting the Reds-Guardians game from his player pool, Lindquist ran his exposure caps to zero on both Burns and Cleveland's hitters (Jose Ramirez included) while leaving the game inside his simulation run. That keeps his 150-lineup build competing against the field's Burns exposure without committing salary to a game that could get rained out, and it means he can undo the whole filter in seconds, rather than rebuilding a full pool, if the forecast clears before lock. His stated plan: come back in with 5-10% Burns exposure if the game looks likely to play clean, and stay at zero if it doesn't.
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Salary | The read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | CIN | vs. Cleveland Guardians | Slate's priciest arm | Nerfed to ~0% pending the Cincinnati storm watch |
| Tatsuya Imai | HOU | vs. Los Angeles Angels | Mid-tier | Angels are brutal vs. RHP and short on scary lefty bats (Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto) |
| Max Fried | NYY | vs. Chicago White Sox | Mid-tier | Threw only 57 pitches last time out; workload capped again |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | — | $9,500 | Fine arm, but ownership is already priced in |
That table's real tension is Imai versus Fried as the safety valve if Burns gets pulled entirely: Imai gets a Los Angeles Angels lineup that strikes out at an elite clip and simply doesn't have the left-handed power to punish him, while Fried is playable but capped by a short recent workload against a White Sox lineup that includes a productive Miguel Vargas (CWS) and strikeout-prone rookie Colson Montgomery (CWS).
Build tonight's board before you lock anything — see where the field is landing on Wheeler, Burns, Imai and Fried in the Stokastic MLB DataHub, the same projections and ownership data the show uses live.
Get 10% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBLBL.
Boston's Stack Gets A Same-Day Trade Boost
Boston was already Lindquist's favorite stack against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins (ATH), and it got better once the lineup posted: Curtis Mead (BOS), acquired from Washington for left-hander Connelly Early two days earlier, is starting at $3,200 on FanDuel and batting second, ahead of Masataka Yoshida (BOS) and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). Caleb Durbin (BOS) at just $2,900 is the other cheap piece in that same lineup. "This slate turned to dog crap real quick," Lindquist joked about the weather, "but I need Zack Wheeler to just ball out on FanDuel, and Boston is still my favorite stack of the day." He's also on the Athletics for leverage in the same game, calling them one of the more interesting stacks on the board against a Boston starter he expects the field to also be attacking.
On DraftKings, the same idea extends to two more offenses he's willing to pay for: Houston (HOU) against the Angels, where Imai's matchup doubles as a green light for Jose Altuve (HOU) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Toronto (TOR) at Washington (WSH), where Max Scherzer (TOR) is on the mound in a game sitting at 60% humidity. Lindquist's framing on Scherzer is conditional, "if we're getting the old Max Scherzer," not a certainty, and he likes both sides of that specific game regardless: Washington's CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH) and Dylan Crews (WSH) against Scherzer, and Toronto's lineup against a Nationals staff, because neither offense is heavily owned relative to how good the matchup looks.
The Contrarian Stack: Pittsburgh Against A Tired Arizona Bullpen
The stack Lindquist keeps coming back to as underowned is Pittsburgh (PIT) against Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly (ARI) at PNC Park. Arizona left-hander Brandyn Garcia (ARI) threw 25 pitches out of the bullpen a day earlier, and Lindquist wants exposure to Pittsburgh's left-handed bats specifically for that reason: Nick Gonzales (PIT) and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) both profile well if Kelly needs to hand the game to that same bullpen early. "Pittsburgh is getting no love against Merrill Kelly. Why?" he asked, calling it his favorite contrarian stack on the entire FanDuel slate, ahead of Boston and the Athletics on a pure ownership-versus-quality basis. On DraftKings, he named Pittsburgh again as his single extra stack for anyone building beyond the obvious plays, over the field's presumptive Washington-at-Scherzer chalk.
Worked Example: Building Around The Wheeler Cash Play
Here's how that translates into an actual build. Start FanDuel with Wheeler locked at 100% and Miami off the board entirely; that's the one non-negotiable seat. From there, Boston (Mead, Durbin, Yoshida, Rafaela) fills the offensive core, with Pittsburgh's Gonzales-O'Hearn pairing layered in as the contrarian counterweight so the whole roster isn't leaning on one game environment. On DraftKings, the build stays more fluid until closer to lock: Burns and all of Cleveland-Cincinnati sit at zero exposure inside the simulation, Imai and Fried share the pitcher pool in the meantime, and Boston, Houston and Pittsburgh again anchor the stacks. If the Cincinnati forecast clears in the final minutes, the plan is to raise Burns back to roughly 5-10% and re-introduce Jose Ramirez and Cleveland's lineup rather than rebuild from scratch, exactly what the zero-exposure filter (instead of a full removal) was built to allow.
The Through-Line: Manage The One Real Risk, Play The Rest Straight
Every call tonight traces back to the Cincinnati forecast. Wheeler is close to a lock precisely because the field's alternative comes with real doubt attached; Boston, Houston and Pittsburgh get built out fully because none of those games carry that same risk; and Burns himself never gets removed from the simulation, just zeroed out, so a clean forecast at lock doesn't mean starting over. For more on building a stack-first pool like this one, see our MLB DFS stacking guide, our MLB DFS correlation strategy guide and our guide to using the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims. For the prior board, see the July 26 Live Before Lock recap, and for spreading exposure across more than one lineup off this same slate, our MLB DFS multi-entry strategy guide and MLB DFS contrarian strategy guide cover sizing a build like this one.
Build Your Own Lineups
Everything on today's show, run live by Eric Lindquist, ran through the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims: build the player pool, filter to your pitchers, see which stacks the Sims keep building around, and grade your lineup before lock. Try it on tonight's board with code MLBLBL for 10% off any DFS or Props package.