MLB DFS Live Before Lock Picks: August 4, 2026
August 4, 2026
MLB DFS Live Before Lock Picks: August 4, 2026
Tuesday's 11-game DraftKings main slate is exactly the kind Eric Lindquist wants ("I love myself 10 plus games"), and his read is that the marquee storyline isn't actually where the edge is. Tarik Skubal's Dodgers debut at a wind-aided Wrigley Field is the headline, but Lindquist plays that one at the field. The real conviction shows up one tier down: Mackenzie Gore at more than double the field against a Giants lineup he calls "a cesspool of broken dreams," and Jared Jones doing the same against Milwaukee. The full pitcher board, the Diamondbacks lefty-power stack, and the pitcher he wants none of are below.
Mackenzie Gore, one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindquist's Tuesday build runs Mackenzie Gore (WSH) at more than double the field, about 75% of his total pitcher pool, against a San Francisco lineup missing Heliot Ramos, Bryce Eldridge and Casey Schmidt, and doubles up Jared Jones (PIT, 27.9% K rate) against Milwaukee. Tarik Skubal's Dodgers debut at Wrigley Field gets played at roughly the field's 22% rather than as a stand. His stacks run Tampa Bay at about a third of lineups, Minnesota against a since-traded Randy Dobnak, the Yankees off the Luis García Jr. addition, and a contrarian lefty-power boost on Arizona. The full pitcher board, the stack math, and why he's fading Davis Martin outright are below.
- Mackenzie Gore (WSH) vs. San Francisco is the slate's chalkiest pitcher, and Lindquist is jamming him anyway: "more than double the field."
- Jared Jones (PIT) vs. Milwaukee is the other double-the-field arm, backed by a 27.9% strikeout rate and the slate's top fastball velocity.
- Tarik Skubal (LAD) at Wrigley Field is a wind-out, total-up storyline Lindquist plays at the field rather than overweight: "holding hands with the field."
- Randy Dobnak (KC), a former Twins pitcher now facing his old team, is the fade behind Lindquist's Minnesota stack.
- Davis Martin (CWS) is a hard no: "I have no Davis Martin interest. None," despite pitching for the hottest team in baseball.
Watch The Video
Eric Lindquist builds the full 150-lineup portfolio live below, from the Gore decision through the Diamondbacks leverage swing right up to Tuesday's lock.
Pitching: Two Chalk Plays Doubled Up, Skubal Played Straight
Skubal making his Dodgers debut is the story the slate is built around: 77 degrees, the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, and a total that has climbed from 8.5 to 9.5. Lindquist's actual stance is more measured than the hype: 22% pool ownership, matching the field rather than fading or overweighting it. He's overweight the cheaper, less-owned Logan Henderson (MIL) against a Pittsburgh lineup that's been top-three in wRC+ against right-handers all year, made easier by Ryan O'Hearn's absence.
Here's the board as Lindquist played it:
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Salary | Lindquist's exposure | The read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | WSH | vs. SF | Sub-$8,600 (DK) | ~75% of pitcher pool, 2x the field | Giants missing Ramos, Eldridge, Schmidt |
| Jared Jones | PIT | vs. MIL | 2x the field, pushed above 13-14% | 27.9% K rate; slate's top fastball velocity | |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | vs. PIT | Overweight to the field | Sims prefer him to Skubal; no Ryan O'Hearn | |
| Tarik Skubal | LAD | at CHC (Wrigley) | At the field, ~22% | Dodgers debut, wind out, total up to 9.5 | |
| Ryan Weathers | NYY | vs. STL | Pushed to ~20% | 26.1% K rate, 3.46 SIERA | |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | at COL (Coors) | Capped at 12% | 15.5-out prop, wide range of outcomes at altitude |
The Gore number is the one worth sitting with. San Francisco is down Heliot Ramos, Bryce Eldridge and Casey Schmidt, leaving Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Daniel Susac, Buddy Kennedy and Grant McCray to carry the lineup. "It takes a lot of very unfortunate breaks for Mackenzie Gore to get completely shelled in this spot," Lindquist said, calling him a no-doubt cash-game option even on FanDuel, something he admitted he didn't expect to say about Gore in 2026. That thin Giants lineup is also why he's comfortable devoting roughly three-quarters of his combined pitcher pool to one arm across a 150-lineup build.
Every projection on this board comes out of the Stokastic MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, the same screens the show runs live. Code MLBLBL takes 10% off any MLB or All Access package.
The Fade: Davis Martin, Despite The Hottest Team In Baseball
Davis Martin gets zero shares. "I have no Davis Martin interest. None," Lindquist said, even with Boston riding a 24-win July as the hottest team in the sport. His case against Martin is entirely process, not results: a 21.7% strikeout rate that doesn't generate enough swing-and-miss, and a 6.3% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio he calls unsustainable given how hard Martin's contact allowed has been. "When it gets hit, it gets hit really, really hard." Boston's bats catching up to that regression is the whole thesis, and it's why Lindquist is willing to pass on a strong-record starter that a chunk of the field will treat as chalk.
Stacks: Tampa Bay Again, Then A Contrarian Push On Arizona
Tampa Bay is the favorite stack again, landing at almost exactly a third of Lindquist's lineups. Junior Caminero anchors it, but his preferred leverage swap is Yandy Diaz over Caminero in that stack ("some definite utility there"), alongside catcher Liam Hicks, his favorite play at the position across either site.
| Stack | Opponent | Lindquist's exposure | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | ~33% (a third of lineups) | Favorite stack again; Diaz-over-Caminero is the leverage swap | |
| Minnesota Twins | Randy Dobnak (KC) | 2nd-favorite stack | Dobnak's former team; unsustainable 47.6% ground-ball rate, zero HR/FB, 13.2% K rate allowed |
| New York Yankees | Hunter Dobbins (BOS) | 3rd stack | Luis García Jr. addition brings a sub-16% strikeout rate to the lineup |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Randy Vasquez, then a piggyback (SD) | Boosted to ~10% | Lefty power vs. two righties, ahead of San Diego's elite 8th-9th relief pairing |
| Kansas City Royals | Joe Ryan (MIN) | Boosted from 6% to 15% | Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez; not rostering Ryan himself |
The Minnesota stack is personal for Lindquist. Randy Dobnak used to pitch for the Twins, and now he's on Kansas City facing his old team. "This absolute dum dum is just running circles around my Twins for no reason," Lindquist said of Dobnak's last start, before pulling up the season profile: a 47.6% ground-ball rate, a zero home-run-to-fly-ball ratio and a 13.2% strikeout rate. "I'm guessing regression is probably due." Minnesota lands as his second-favorite stack on that read.
Arizona is the leverage play. Facing Randy Vasquez and a piggyback arm behind him, Lindquist is stacking the Diamondbacks' left-handed power, Corbin Carroll, Lars Nootbaar, Max Kepler and Ketel Marte, with Geraldo Perdomo in the mix, because Arizona leads baseball at avoiding strikeouts against left-handed pitching. The catch is San Diego's bullpen: once the game reaches Yuki Matsui and Robert Suárez in the 8th and 9th, "you're just flat out dead." Lindquist boosted his Arizona exposure to about 10% anyway, betting the damage gets done before the Padres' relief duo ever enters. He gave Kansas City a similar bump, from 6% up to 15%, leaning on Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen and Salvador Perez against Joe Ryan, without playing Ryan himself on the mound.
Two more notes from the build: Shohei Ohtani swung from 0% ownership on the prior slate to 36% here, and Kyle Tucker is one of Lindquist's highest-owned outfielders as a contrarian one-off batting seventh back at Wrigley Field. Miguel Vargas at third base came up as a lean he'd play if he weren't building live on stream, but he never fired it into the 150. For the stacking logic behind builds like this, see our MLB DFS stacking guide and our MLB DFS correlation strategy guide.
Worked Example: How The 150 Fits Together
Gore at roughly 75% of the combined pitcher pool means the rest of the board differentiates the field: Jared Jones doubled up, Henderson overweight, Skubal at the field, Weathers pushed to 20%, and Peralta capped at 12% given Coors Field's volatility. On the stack side, Tampa Bay at a third of lineups is the floor play, Minnesota is the regression bet on Dobnak, and the Arizona and Kansas City boosts are the pieces built specifically to beat lineups that lean too hard on the obvious chalk. Sizing a 150-max build this way is the subject of our MLB DFS multi-entry strategy guide.
FanDuel: One Pitcher Seat, Same Answer Plus A Value Play
On FanDuel's single-pitcher format, Gore is still the call: "your no-doubt cash game option" at $8,600. Behind him, Lindquist likes Troy Melton (DET, $9,800) against Seattle's lineup, which now includes Taylor Ward alongside Cal Raleigh, Dominic Canzone and Colt Emerson, for roughly 10% exposure and length that plays well on a site that pays for deep outings. Liam Hicks is his favorite catcher play on either site, batting cleanup for Tampa Bay well under 5% owned, and Miami's leadoff man at $3,000 is his top one-off value play on the site.
FAQ
Who is the top MLB DFS pitcher play for August 4? Mackenzie Gore (WSH) against San Francisco. Lindquist calls the Giants lineup a "cesspool" with Heliot Ramos, Bryce Eldridge and Casey Schmidt all out, and runs Gore at more than double the field across his pitcher pool.
Is Tarik Skubal a good DFS play in his Dodgers debut? Lindquist plays him at the field rather than overweight, about 22% pool ownership. The wind blowing out at Wrigley Field is real, but he prefers Logan Henderson and Mackenzie Gore for actual leverage on this slate.
What is the best MLB DFS stack for August 4? Tampa Bay at roughly a third of lineups is the floor play, with Minnesota (fading Randy Dobnak) as the second-favorite stack and a contrarian lefty-power boost on Arizona as the leverage swing.
Where can I build these MLB DFS lineups myself? The Stokastic MLB DFS Sims, ownership projections and Top Stacks live in the Stokastic MLB DataHub, the same tools used on the show. Our MLB DFS glossary covers every term in this recap.
The Through-Line: Play The Quiet Chalk, Fade The Loud Story
Skubal's Dodgers debut is the headline the whole slate is dressed around, and Lindquist's build is a reminder that the loudest storyline isn't always the sharpest exposure. He plays Skubal at the field, then puts his real conviction into Gore and Jared Jones, two pitchers doubled up against lineups that are quietly worse than the ones drawing attention, and into stacks built to beat the field's chalk rather than join it. Davis Martin gets nothing despite pitching for the hottest team in the sport, because the process numbers don't back the record. For the full pitcher board and every stack update through lock, see our MLB DFS picks hub, and for Thursday's board, check back for the next edition of this series. Eric Lindquist is back with tomorrow's slate.
Build Your Own Lineups
Every number on Tuesday's show came out of the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims: refresh projections as lineups drop, cap or boost any pitcher the way Lindquist capped Peralta at 12%, and watch which stacks the simulations keep building around before lock. Try it on the next slate with code MLBLBL for 10% off any MLB or All Access package.