MLB DFS Perfect Lineup: DraftKings Picks and Stacks for Tuesday, June 23

Yesterday almost got there. The pitching was spectacular, and the Dodgers were the one piece that let us down. So our MLB DFS picks on Tuesday's nine-game slate run a lot of it back, because the spots that worked are still good spots. Here is how the MLB DFS Perfect Lineup comes together today: the two DraftKings starters we keep going back to, the stack we are spending up for, and what it all looks like once the Stokastic Sims do the heavy lifting.

In Summary

• Nine-game main slate on Tuesday, June 23 for MLB DFS on DraftKings.
• SP1: Shane Baz ($8,200) against the Angels; SP2: Sean Burke ($7,000) against Cleveland. Sean Burke carries the highest top-two pitcher probability and the highest value score in the Stokastic DataHub.
• Primary stack: the Los Angeles Dodgers against Twins lefty Kendry Rojas, with the salary to spend up for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Max Muncy.
• The completed build graded out at 51% Sim ROI and a 33.5% cash rate in the Single-Lineup Simulator.
• New to the Stokastic Sims? Code PERFECT10 takes 10% off any weekly or monthly plan.

Watch the Video

Josh Ingram and Dave Lochran build the whole thing out on the Perfect Lineup show, pitchers first, then the stack, then straight into the sims. Watch on YouTube.

Today's Top DraftKings Plays

The Pitching: Two Spots We Keep Going Back To

The theme tonight is simple. The matchups we trusted yesterday are still on the board, so we are not overthinking the two starting pitcher spots.

SP1: Shane Baz ($8,200) vs the Angels

Kyle Bradish was our SP1 yesterday and dominated, eight scoreless frames with nine strikeouts and the win for 35 DraftKings points at $8,500. We are not pretending Shane Baz is the same pedigree of strikeout arm, but the shape of the spot is similar, and the recent form backs it up. Over his last month, six starts, Baz has struck out 22% of batters with a 3.02 xFIP, a 6% barrel rate, and less than half a home run per nine allowed. The number that stands out most is innings: he is averaging six and a third per outing, so he is getting deep enough to mitigate damage and pile up the strikeout chances. His K prop sits at a respectable 5.5 today.

Yes, we are cherry-picking the date range a little. But the matchup is the point. Baz is the fourth-highest projected pitcher on the slate and the fourth-highest in top-two pitcher probability in the Stokastic DataHub, so he is priced and projected exactly where he should be. The real tell is how tight the top of the board is: there is not a single pitcher between the highest-projected arm and Baz separated by more than 0.6 fantasy points. That is a logjam, and at $8,200 he sits right in the middle of it.

SP2: Sean Burke ($7,000) vs Cleveland

This is the spot we love most. Cleveland's offense has not been good all year, and it is more pronounced now with injuries piling up; Jose Ramirez is out for at least another five weeks. Their active roster ranks 26th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching and 29th in ISO, and they strike out at the sixth-highest rate in baseball. The game total is just 7, and Cleveland owns the second-lowest team total on the slate at 3.6.

Despite all of that, Sean Burke is only $7,000 with a 5.5 K prop that has juice to the over. The Stokastic DataHub absolutely loves him: he carries the highest top-two pitcher probability and the highest value score on the entire slate. Whether Burke goes the distance or runs into trouble, the price is the edge. At $7,000 against this lineup, he is objectively too cheap given the projections, the prop market, and everything Cleveland has shown this year.

The Pivot: Parker Messick

If you want to get off the chalk in the $8K-plus range, Parker Messick is the preferred pivot. He runs about $1,100 more expensive than Baz, but he draws a perfectly good matchup against the White Sox. Either way, we are anchoring to Baz and Burke.

The Stack: Dodgers vs Kendry Rojas

We are going back to the Dodgers, who let us down a touch yesterday but profile right back into a great spot against Twins lefty Kendry Rojas. Rojas is a prospect with an electric fastball who is unlikely to go especially deep, and the Dodgers grade out second in top stack and fourth in stack score in the Stokastic data. They sit 11th in top value, which is fine, because this build is about spending up rather than saving.

Los Angeles is technically worse against lefties, but "worse" is relative for this offense. Against left-handed pitching they rank 14th in wRC+, ninth in ISO, and 10th in walk rate, so they still profile as a top-10 unit, and they are only 25th in strikeout rate, meaning Rojas should not pile up free outs. With pitching this cheap up top, we want the best bats possible: give us Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman ($5,200), Mookie Betts ($4,500), and Max Muncy ($4,500). Betts and Muncy at $4,500 are unusually cost-effective for the names, and the lefty-versus-lefty matchup keeps Freeman's ownership reasonable while we still get the production.

Building It in the Sims: A Worked Example

Here is exactly how we put it together in the Stokastic Single-Lineup Simulator. We locked Shane Baz and Sean Burke at pitcher, then dropped in a five-man Dodgers stack: Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman, Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, and Shohei Ohtani. That left about $3,300 per remaining spot for a catcher, a third baseman, and an outfielder.

Rather than guess, we used the Complete This Lineup feature to pull the optimal plays for the open spots. It rounded the build into a 5-2-1: the five Dodgers, a pair of Boston Red Sox bats, and Colton Cowser as a one-off Baltimore Orioles bat, which brings a little correlation alongside Shane Baz.

Then we ran the simulation. Across thousands of simulated contests, the build came back at a 51% Sim ROI, a 0.2% chance to win, and a 33.5% cash rate, a profile that looks a lot like the one that nearly got there yesterday. Those are simulated ranges, not promises: MLB is high-variance, so even a strong pre-lock build can finish anywhere on a given night, and the point is the long-run process rather than one slate. The beauty of the single-lineup tool is the flexibility: if you would rather move off Freddie Freeman at $5,200 to spend up elsewhere, you pull him, drop in a different bat, re-run the simulation, and see what you have in a couple of clicks.

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How We Use the Stokastic Tools

Everything above starts with the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and projections. The tool surfaces the value automatically: the DataHub's top-two pitcher probability is what flagged both Baz and Burke as priced right, and the value score is what made Burke at $7,000 stand out as the slate's best DraftKings MLB DFS arm. From there, the Single-Lineup Simulator builds and grades the actual roster so you are not just stacking names, you are checking how the build performs across thousands of simulated contests before lock. Ownership and leverage still matter in tournaments, so use the projections to find the spots the field is underrating, then let the sims confirm the construction and your MLB DFS stacks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the SP1 play in the June 23 MLB DFS Perfect Lineup? Shane Baz at $8,200 against the Angels. He is the fourth-highest projected pitcher on the slate and sits inside a tight top tier where no arm above him is more than 0.6 fantasy points clear.

Who is the best value pitcher on the slate? Sean Burke at $7,000 against Cleveland. He carries the highest top-two pitcher probability and the highest value score in the Stokastic DataHub, with a 5.5 K prop juiced to the over in a game with a total of just 7.

Which team should I stack on June 23? The Los Angeles Dodgers against Twins lefty Kendry Rojas. With cheap pitching up top, you have the salary to spend up for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Max Muncy.

What is the promo code for the Stokastic Sims? Use code PERFECT10 for 10% off any weekly or monthly Core, Max, or All Access subscription, which unlocks the full DFS Sim suite for every sport Stokastic covers.

The Bottom Line

The plan on Tuesday's nine-game slate is to lean into the spots that keep working: Shane Baz and Sean Burke at pitcher, where the price and the projections agree, and a Dodgers stack we can afford to load up because the arms are so cheap. Build it, simulate it, and adjust to your contest before lock.

New to the Stokastic Sims? Pull up the Single-Lineup Simulator, and use code PERFECT10 for 10% off any weekly or monthly plan, including All Access.

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