MLB DFS Primer for DraftKings and FanDuel

What is spring without fantasy baseball? Baseball has always been one of my favorite DFS sports, both for how fun it is and for how profitable it can be. It's the least predictable of the major sports, which makes it the perfect proving ground for advanced strategy. I've been grinding MLB DFS since the Awesemo.com days (Awesemo.com is now Stokastic.com), and this is the MLB DFS primer I wish someone had handed me when I started. It covers DraftKings MLB DFS and FanDuel MLB DFS, and it's built to hold up season after season, including the current 2025 season.

The first thing to understand is that accurate projections matter less in baseball than in any other sport. In NBA, LeBron James scores between 20 and 35 points the vast majority of the time, so a precise projection is gold. In baseball, even the best MLB DFS projections can't tell you whether Bryce Harper goes 0-for-4 or hits two homers tonight. Lineups built with less-than-perfect point projections can still win. The real keys are correlation, ownership leverage, and sifting through a mountain of data: ownership projections, rankings, confirmed lineups, and weather.

In summary

• Correlation beats raw projection. Stack batters from the same team so one big inning lifts your whole lineup. The MLB Sims build that correlation in for you.
• Pick stacks off implied team totals. Use sportsbook over/unders to find the offenses most likely to have an outlier night, then lean into large slates where outliers happen.
• Project players with a few high-signal stats. On-base percentage and ISO for bats, strikeout rate and WHIP for arms, then layer in matchup, park, weather, and batting order.
• DraftKings and FanDuel reward different builds. FanDuel's run/RBI scoring makes correlation even more valuable; FanDuel's quality-start bonus rewards deeper-pitching arms.
• Leverage ownership in GPPs. Be different where the field is chalky. The Ownership Projections and Top Stacks tools show you where.
• Process over results. MLB is brutally high-variance. Judge yourself over a season, not one slate.

MLB DFS Stacking and Correlation

I learned early that simply playing the highest-projected lineup in GPPs is not profitable in the long run, no matter how good the projections are. Instead, you want to force correlated players into your lineup rather than chasing projection alone. The core correlation in baseball is between batters on the same team, and it comes from several real mechanics.

First, the number of at-bats a team gets varies, and every successful at-bat creates another opportunity for points. Second, batters earn extra points with runners in scoring position. Third, pitchers shorten their delivery from the stretch with runners on, which makes them less effective. And finally, once a game gets out of hand, the trailing team brings in the back of its bullpen instead of wasting innings from its best relievers, so the leading offense feasts. That is why a single team can erupt and carry every hitter you stacked from it.

For a stack to pay off, you need a team (or two) to post an outlier performance that night. That's more likely on a large slate, so stack more aggressively when there are more games to choose from. The best way to choose a stack is the team's implied total, which you get from sportsbook over/unders and win probability. I track implied totals all day on the MLB DataHub, and the Top Stacks tool ranks the offenses with the highest ceilings.

The most popular approach is to stack at least one team, usually two, with the maximum players allowed in each. The caps vary by site and even by contest type: DraftKings classic contests typically let you go up to five from one team, and FanDuel typically caps you at around four, but always confirm the stacking rule for your specific contest before you build. If you fully stack and choose teams with reasonable projections, you'll have a strong shot in the largest-field tournaments. There's a drawback to over-stacking, though. You can sometimes raise your lineup's overall projection by subbing an overpriced bat in a stack for an elite one-off, say a Mike Trout, and rigid stacking rules can blind you to strong combinations. Suppose two teams play at Coors Field but neither lists a shortstop that day. If you hard-set two full stacks, you'll miss that favorable spot entirely. This is exactly why I stopped building stacks by hand and let the Stokastic MLB Sims assemble correlated lineups for me: it keeps stack members near each other in the batting order automatically instead of scattering them.

A strategy I've used for years is multiplying my batters' projections by a constant before building, which spends a higher percentage of the salary cap on hitters. The theory is that high-priced bats are more volatile relative to cheap bats than high-priced arms are relative to cheap arms. For a hitter to be truly volatile he needs power or speed; pitchers are all extremely volatile by nature. There's something to this, because a team is often overpriced yet still projected to do very well, and it gets overlooked by people optimizing on median projection alone. If the odds that a team is the night's best stack exceed its ownership, it's usually a good play regardless of "value."

A worked example: how to pick a stack from implied totals

Here's how I actually choose a stack on a typical slate. Say the day's highest implied team total on the MLB DataHub is a team sitting at roughly 5.5 runs, well above the slate-average implied total closer to 4.3. That gap is the signal. On DraftKings I'd roster a 5-man stack from that offense (the top of its order, where the at-bats concentrate), then build a 3-man secondary stack off the next-best implied total around 5.0. That 5-3 shape gives me two correlated shots at a big inning while staying differentiated.

Now I check the Ownership Projections, which the tool surfaces for every hitter and arm on the slate. If that 5.5-run offense is also projected at 35% ownership, half the field is on it, so I'll keep it but get different at pitcher and in my secondary stack to leverage off the chalk. If instead a 5.2-run offense is sitting at only 12% ownership because the storyline is quieter, that's the spot I attack: similar ceiling, a fraction of the exposure. Then I drop the pool into the Contest Sims, simulate the tournament tens of thousands of times, and read the simulated ROI the tool surfaces for each lineup to confirm whether the under-owned build actually grades out better. (Use illustrative numbers here; pull the real implied totals and ownership off the DataHub for tonight's slate.)

Projecting MLB Player Performance

Baseball has the most stat-obsessed culture of any sport I've studied. There are so many advanced metrics that you can drown trying to use them all, so start with a few that carry real signal.

For batters, my favorites are on-base percentage and ISO (isolated power), which together capture a hitter's ability to reach base and to do damage. Batting average is underrated in fantasy too; it gets a bad rep, but walks just aren't as valuable for DFS scoring as hits are.

For pitchers, strikeout rate and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) have the strongest relationship to fantasy output in my experience. Because variance is so high, it's also worth checking how much luck is baked into a stat line. BABIP for hitters and xFIP for pitchers help you separate a player's true skill from his current results.

Once you've settled on your stats, weigh the player's matchup, park factors, weather, and lineup order. For matchups, watch handedness: hitters have the edge against opposite-handed pitchers, and pitchers have the edge against same-handed hitters. Teams frequently field different lineups against lefties than righties, so prefer hitters in a favorable handedness spot. It isn't as simple as splits, though, because starters usually only go five or six innings. Watch out for "platoon" players who get subbed for a same-side reliever late, which quietly caps their upside.

Park factors matter as much as anyone who has watched a Rockies home game can attest. The main lever on hitting is air density. When the air is dense there's more resistance and the ball doesn't carry; when it's thin, hits and power spike. Temperature and elevation drive air density, and both thin the air as they rise. That's why Coors Field in the Mile High City is such a hitter's paradise. (I didn't have the same luck in the batting cages there, so it won't turn just anyone into Barry Bonds.)

While you're checking temperature, watch the precipitation reports. I use live radar to make my final call. If a game looks like it could lose more than a couple hours to rain, discount those projections. Sometimes a game is likely to start but only has a short clean-weather window, which crushes the upside of stacks in that game because high-scoring innings take longer to play. I post weather risk right alongside my projections.

The final input is the confirmed lineup. A few hours before first pitch, each team releases its batting order, telling you exactly who's playing. Lineups don't just confirm who's in; they tell you how many opportunities each hitter gets. Much like minutes in the NBA, at-bats drive baseball scoring, and once you know a hitter's batting-order slot, at-bats are far more predictable than NBA minutes. Not all No. 6 spots are equal, though: the away team gets more at-bats at the bottom of the order because of the extra half inning on average, and favorable hitting conditions mean more baserunners and therefore more plate appearances for everyone.

If building your own projections still feels overwhelming, lean on the free Stokastic projections to start, or read our deeper guide on how to make DFS projections. For cash games, pack in as many high-value plays as possible while spending your full salary. For tournaments, balance strong value stacks with lower-owned sleepers, and use each player's value plus projected ownership to weigh the risk and reward.

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DraftKings MLB DFS vs. FanDuel MLB DFS

Most sports share strategy across sites, but baseball scoring is different enough that DraftKings and FanDuel reward different builds.

On DraftKings, runs and RBIs are worth relatively less compared to bases, so the marginal value of stacking is a touch lower than on FanDuel. On FanDuel, each additional base tends to coincide with a run scored, and high-scoring performances draw a larger share of their points from runs and RBIs. The takeaway: batter correlation is significantly more valuable on FanDuel, and you can weight it more heavily relative to projection and ownership there than you would on DraftKings.

FanDuel's quality-start bonus also creates an incentive to roster pitchers who throw more pitches. A quality start requires six innings, and at a league-average WHIP near 1.30, six innings runs roughly 90-plus pitches. Few starters average that volume, and the odds of a quality start fall off a cliff when a pitcher sits at 80 to 90 pitches instead of pushing past 100. FanDuel also doesn't penalize giving up bases, only runs. So deep-pitching arms are relatively more valuable on FanDuel, while on DraftKings you can lean more on the volatility of baserunners allowed to manufacture the GPP upside you need.

Because baseball is the most volatile major sport, on any given night the edge the top option at a position holds over other good options is small. That opens real room to be contrarian, because ownership tends to cluster on the night's "obvious" plays. To gauge it, I review the Ownership Projections every night and fade the bats and arms likely to be over-owned while targeting the under-owned. Exercise caution going contrarian, though. It's like the behind-the-back pass in basketball: optimal in a narrow set of situations, but tempting to overuse. Keep the focus on maximizing score and correlation while avoiding overly chalky lineups. You don't get style points for a roster full of 1%-owned guys.

Putting Your MLB DFS Lineup Together

Lineup construction matters in every DFS sport, but it's especially decisive in MLB. These days most strong players have similar projections and know the best plays on any given slate. To beat the field, you have to go a level deeper and find the spots others are under-betting that still have a great chance to hit. Combining the Stokastic articles, rankings, and ownership projections is how I surface those sleepers and give myself the best shot every night.

As with most sports, build in a way that differentiates each lineup from the field. What works best is pairing popular plays with a couple of sleepers. If you're rolling out a highly owned stack, get different at pitcher or use an unorthodox stacking scheme. If you're going contrarian on a stack, it usually pays to pair it with the best available arms.

This is where I let the MLB Sims and Contest Sims do the work. Rather than guessing how 12 hand-built lineups will hold up, I build a player pool, simulate the contest tens of thousands of times, and let simulated ROI rank the lineups for me. The Sims factor in correlation, payout structure, and field ownership at once. (For a full walkthrough of that workflow, see our companion guides on how to use MLB DFS Sims and how to win DFS tournaments.) One important guardrail: the Contest Sims are a GPP/tournament tool. For cash games (double-ups and 50/50s), where you only need to beat about half the field, build the highest-floor lineup straight from projections instead of the simulated-tournament pool. Once a slate is locked and news breaks, the Late Swap tool lets you update lineups for a scratched starter or a shuffled batting order, which is one of the highest-value in-slate moves you can make.

Conquering the low-stakes games is all about the fundamentals: a repeatable system for judging player upside, factoring in projected ownership, and applying stacking correctly. To move up in stakes, adjust to a sharper field where chalk gets over-owned and volatile sleepers go overlooked. None of this is a promise of profit; baseball will humble the best lineup on any single night. But over a full season, a disciplined process built on correlation, ownership, and simulation is how you tilt the odds in your favor. Good luck this season.

MLB DFS Primer FAQ

What is the best MLB DFS strategy for beginners?

Start with stacking. Pick one or two offenses with high implied team totals from sportsbook over/unders, roster the max correlated bats from each (DraftKings classic contests typically allow up to five from one team and FanDuel typically caps you around four, but confirm the cap for your specific contest), and fill the rest with value. Then check the MLB DataHub for projections, ownership, and weather before lock.

How is DraftKings MLB DFS different from FanDuel MLB DFS?

FanDuel's scoring leans more on runs and RBIs, which makes batter correlation (stacking) even more valuable, and its quality-start bonus rewards deeper-pitching starters. DraftKings rewards bases more evenly, so you can lean on the volatility of baserunners allowed from your pitcher for upside.

How many players should I stack in MLB DFS?

In large-field tournaments, a primary stack of four to five correlated bats plus a secondary partial stack is the standard, high-ceiling build, and the Contest Sims (a GPP/tournament tool) will test different stack shapes (like 5-3 and 5-2-1) against the simulated field for you. In cash games, prioritize a high floor over a big stack and build the highest-floor lineup straight from the projections rather than the simulated tournament pool.

Do I need accurate projections to win MLB DFS?

Less than you'd think. Because baseball is so high-variance, correlation and ownership leverage matter more than nailing a single player's projection. Good projections still help you choose stacks and one-offs, which is why I lean on the free Stokastic projections and the Sims rather than building everything by hand.

What stats matter most for MLB DFS?

For hitters, on-base percentage and ISO (isolated power). For pitchers, strikeout rate and WHIP. Then layer in matchup handedness, park factors, weather, and the confirmed batting order, which tells you how many at-bats each hitter is likely to get.

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