MLB DFS Picks Today (7/27): Imai's $6,800 Value Play

Tatsuya Imai, one of the featured players on today's slate.

In Summary

MLB DFS picks today come from a seven-game Monday slate, and the whole board turns on one number: Tatsuya Imai (HOU) is priced at just $6,800 against the Los Angeles Angels despite ranking #1 in value and second in projected points among every pitcher rostered. Jack Perkins (ATH) at $6,500 is the strikeout-rate dice roll worth knowing about against Boston at Sutter Health Park, and Chase Burns (CIN) at $11,300 is a fade we're comfortable sitting underweight on. Boston is the clear chalk stack tonight, which is exactly why a value bat like Jose Ramirez (CLE) at 29% projected ownership matters as leverage. New to building around outliers like this? Start with our MLB DFS strategy fundamentals and come back for the full read below.

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The full breakdown of today's seven-game slate, built live in the Stokastic MLB Data Hub with the Sims, props and exposures pulled straight from the tool. Watch on YouTube.

Tatsuya Imai At $6,800 Is The Slate's Biggest Mispricing

Start with the number that should not exist on a DraftKings board: Imai is $6,800 against the Angels, he's #1 in Sims-projected value on the entire slate, and he's second overall in projected fantasy points among every pitcher rostered tonight. Run those two filters in the Data Hub and he still comes out as only the 10th-highest-priced pitcher on the slate, cheaper than Tyler Mahle, Martin Perez, Slade Cecconi and Walbert Ureña, none of whom project ahead of him.

The volatility that keeps him this cheap is real. Over his last five starts, Imai has posted 30 DraftKings points (6 IP, 3 ER, 11 K), then 36 (6 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 10 K), then cratered to -8 against Minnesota, then 6 in a rough outing against Washington, then bounced back to 27 in his July 21 start against Miami (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 K). That swing from 36 to -8 and back to 27 is exactly the pattern that breaks a pricing algorithm built on trailing averages — DraftKings hasn't caught up to how good the underlying stuff is, only to how inconsistent the box scores look.

The row worth sitting with is the last one: even his "down" start against Miami still cleared 27 points, and Miami isn't a lineup that chases much against right-handed pitching. That's the floor case for a $6,800 arm with a $10,000-caliber ceiling. Our own early build reflects the conviction: we're sitting at 68% exposure to Imai, close to three times his own 27% field-projected ownership (already the second-highest of any pitcher on the slate). If a guy that popular still isn't fully priced in, the edge is bigger than the ownership number suggests.

Why We're Fading Chase Burns At $11,300

Burns is a legitimately talented arm — good strikeout stuff, only five home runs allowed in more than 50 innings at home — but DraftKings prices him like a workhorse, and he isn't one yet. He's gone seven-plus innings exactly one time all season, with several outings under six frames, and tonight he's still $11,300 against Cleveland, the single most expensive number on the board. Layer on the environment: it's projected to hit 91 degrees at Great American Ball Park with the wind blowing out to left at 13 miles per hour, one of the friendlier home-run parks in baseball on a night that's playing even smaller than usual. Our build sits at 39% exposure to Burns — underweight relative to a $11,300 price tag — and that's a deliberate call, not an oversight.

Jack Perkins ($6,500) Is The Dice Roll Worth Knowing About

Jack Perkins (ATH) at $6,500 against Boston is the one we keep coming back to even though the surface numbers are ugly: a 6.75 ERA. But his 4.07 xERA and 4.15 xFIP tell a very different story, and the strikeout profile backs it up — a 27% strikeout rate, an 8% walk rate, a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a 29% called-plus-swinging-strike rate, all of which are legitimately good marks. His expected ISO allowed is far better against lefties (.123) than righties (.193), and Boston's righty-heavy top of the order is exactly what makes this playable: the Red Sox carry the third-lowest wRC+ in baseball against right-handed pitching (92), the third-lowest walk rate, and a top-10 strikeout rate against righties, even with a bottom-third .309 wOBA against RHP.

The catch is the environment: it's 89 degrees at Sutter Health Park with an 8-mile-per-hour wind blowing out and a 9.5-run game total, and Perkins has already given up more than a home run and a half per nine this season. The field is treating him as a real punt at roughly 10% ownership, and we're right there with them, tempted to go a touch over. Boston, on the other side of that same game, is the highest team total AND the highest stack score on the entire slate, which sets up the real construction tension: pay up into Boston's offense, or take the swing on the cheap arm shutting it down.

Boston Is The Chalk, SO Here's Where The Leverage Sits

Boston's projected as the most popular stack tonight by a wide margin, with Rafael Devers' former teammates Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu all sitting at 27%-plus outfield exposure and Masataka Yoshida rounding out four of the six most-owned outfielders on the slate. Combined infield and outfield stack exposure to Boston is running near 39%, with the Yankees and Brewers next in line. That's exactly the setup where a value bat with no stack requirement becomes the real leverage play.

The row that stands out is Ramirez: at 29% projected ownership, he's nearly three times the field average for a single bat, and you get that exposure without paying for a full Cleveland stack against Chase Burns. Catcher, by contrast, stays flat: Ivan Herrera, William Contreras, Tyler Stephenson, Carson Kelly and Francisco Alvarez are all bunched between 10% and 17%, with Connor Wong and Yainer Diaz down at 9% apiece. There's no clear catcher chalk to fade or build around tonight, which is one more reason the pitcher decisions above carry more weight than usual.

New to Stokastic? Use code MLBSTRATEGY for 10% off any DFS or Props package, and run tonight's full board yourself in the MLB Data Hub before lock.

The Bottom Line

Tonight's seven-game board really does come down to pricing gaps more than raw talent gaps. The clearest one is Imai's $6,800 price tag: top value, second-highest projected points, and still only the 10th-most-expensive arm rostered. Jack Perkins at $6,500 is the live dice roll against a Boston lineup that's below average versus right-handers, even if the ERA says otherwise. Chase Burns at $11,300 is talented enough to blow up any lineup, which is exactly why we're comfortable sitting underweight him. And with Boston drawing the field's chalk, a bat like Jose Ramirez lets you take the leverage without paying full price for a stack. Run the same numbers yourself in the Stokastic MLB Data Hub before you lock tonight's lineups, and check our MLB DFS glossary if any of the ownership or value language above is new to you.

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For today's full pitcher board, stack ranks and projected ownership, head to the MLB DFS picks hub, or dig into the Stokastic Sims tutorial and our correlation and contrarian strategy guides if you're building your first lineup tonight.