MLB DFS Picks Today (7/29): Skubal And Luzardo Lead

Tarik Skubal — one of the featured players on today's slate.

The Quick Answer

Today's MLB DFS picks come from a tiny 5-game early slate (first pitch 12:10 PM ET), and the pitcher pool isn't close: Tarik Skubal (DET) at $11,000 and Jesús Luzardo (PHI) at $9,500 are projected roughly 10 and 6 fantasy points, respectively, ahead of the next-closest arm at their position, and they own the two highest strikeout props on the board. Trevor Rogers (BAL) is the value third pitcher against a below-average Detroit lineup, and Toronto's stack is the field's chalk against Washington. The full pitcher board, the two aces' underlying numbers, and where the rest of the pool actually separates are below.

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The full breakdown of today's 5-game early slate, built live in the Stokastic MLB Data Hub with the Sims, props and exposures pulled straight from the tool. Watch on YouTube.

A 5-Game Slate With Only Two Real Aces

Start with the shape of the slate itself: five games, all locking within an hour of each other starting at 12:10 PM ET, and only 10 total starting pitchers to choose from. On a slate that small, a real separation at the top of the pitcher pool matters more than it would on a 15-game main slate, and that's exactly what this board has. Tarik Skubal (DET) at $11,000 and Jesús Luzardo (PHI) at $9,500 are projected far enough ahead of everyone else that the Sims aren't treating this as a five-pitcher conversation. They're treating it as a two-pitcher conversation with a deep value tier behind it.

The strikeout props back it up. An 8.5 strikeout prop for Skubal and a 7.5 for Luzardo are both clearly the highest on the board; every other starter today is bunched between 2.5 and 5.5 strikeouts. Projected ownership tells the same story: 68% for Skubal, 48% for Luzardo, with the rest of the pool scattered in the 11-12% range or lower. On raw production, Skubal projects for roughly 10 more fantasy points than the next-closest pitcher, and Luzardo projects more than 6 points ahead of the pitcher behind him, Jared Jones (PIT). That's not a marginal edge. It's the reason this slate is really about two decisions, not five.

The row worth sitting with is the ownership column: two pitchers combining for well over 100% combined exposure, and the other eight fighting over table scraps. That's the entire pitching decision for this slate in one line.

Jesús Luzardo's Road Numbers Are The Real Outlier

Luzardo is facing his former team today, on the road, and his road splits this season are the single most extreme stat on the board. He's running a 30% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 5% barrel rate allowed overall, with a 51% ground-ball rate and a 14% swinging-strike rate, all comfortably elite marks. But it's the home/road gap that stands out: away from Citizens Bank Park, Luzardo has allowed a .257 wOBA and just 1 home run all season, against a .440 slugging percentage and 10 of his 11 home runs allowed at home. His road strikeout rate is also roughly 5 points higher than his home rate, and his road home-run rate sits at 0.14 per nine. Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park, so some home/road gap is expected for any pitcher there, but a swing this large, on a pitcher already missing bats at an elite clip, is the kind of outlier that doesn't come around often. Facing Miami, the team that traded him, on the road, is about as clean a setup as this matchup gets.

Tarik Skubal (DET) At $11,000: The Highest Price And The Highest Ceiling

He's the most expensive pitcher on the slate for a reason. Baltimore does carry some thump against left-handed pitching this season, a .183 ISO that ranks 7th in baseball, but the Orioles are also striking out at a 25% clip against lefties, and his swing-and-miss profile is exactly the kind that turns a power-capable lineup into a strikeout-prop cash. At home in Comerica Park, with mild conditions (78 degrees, wind blowing out a modest 12 mph to right field), there isn't much working against him. The risk with Baltimore isn't volume of contact, it's the quality of contact when they do connect: this is a lineup that can turn one mistake into a multi-run swing, which is the trade-off you're accepting at $11,000 for the slate's highest strikeout prop.

Trevor Rogers (BAL): The Value Third Pitcher

Not every good matchup needs a premium price tag. Trevor Rogers (BAL), a left-hander, draws Detroit today, and Detroit is a bottom-half offense against left-handed pitching this season: a 23% strikeout rate (13th in MLB), a 96 wRC+ (17th in MLB) and a .141 ISO (20th in MLB). None of those numbers are a bottom-of-the-league red flag, but they're all comfortably below the elite tier, which makes Rogers a reasonable lean as the pitcher to build around behind the two aces rather than mixing evenly across the rest of the pool. His 4.5 strikeout prop is middle-of-the-pack for this slate, which fits a pitcher who should get outs without racking up a double-digit strikeout total.

Worked Example: Why Capping Skubal And Luzardo Backfires Today

One test worth running before you build: what happens if you artificially cap exposure to Skubal and Luzardo at 50% each in today's Sims run specifically, forcing more balance across the pool? For today's slate, that constraint drags the resulting lineup pool's lowest simulated ROI to roughly -10.5%, meaningfully worse than the pool of lineups that lets ownership run naturally to both arms. Even matching their exposure closer to their real projected ownership (60% Rogers-tier bats paired with 68% Skubal, for example) still lands in negative simulated-ROI territory on this specific slate. The lesson isn't "always max out the highest-owned plays" as a universal rule; it's that on a slate this small, with a gap this real between the top two arms and everyone else, artificially diversifying away from the correct pitchers costs more than it protects today. If you're playing cash games specifically, building without Skubal or Luzardo somewhere in the lineup is a mistake regardless of how the game plays out.

Toronto's Stack Is The Field's Chalk, And The Middle Tier Is Bunched

Toronto is projected for the highest implied team total on the slate, facing Zack Littell (WSH) and the Nationals, and the Sims have Toronto's stack running around 48% exposure, well clear of every other team. Alejandro Kirk is the anchor at catcher. It's not an accident: Toronto also grades out as the top value team and the top stack-score team on the board, so the heavy exposure is the Sims agreeing with the market rather than fighting it.

Beyond Toronto, team totals are tightly packed. Atlanta and Philadelphia both sit at 4.4 runs, Washington is at 4.7 against Yesavage, and Detroit checks in at 4.2. Baltimore and Miami are the two low totals on the board, both in the 3.4-3.5 range, which lines up with why Skubal and Luzardo project so well: they're not just facing individually exploitable lineups, they're facing the two lowest-scoring offenses on the entire slate.

Behind Skubal and Luzardo, six starters — Sean Manaea (NYM), Jared Jones (PIT), AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL), Trey Yesavage (TOR), Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) and Trevor Rogers (BAL) — are all bunched within roughly 2 percentage points of projected ownership (11-12%) and within 2 fantasy points of each other. None of them separate individually the way the two aces do, so if you're spreading exposure away from Skubal and Luzardo, this is the tier to pull from rather than reaching for a specific name. The one arm in that group carrying real risk is AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) at $8,500, making his first start off the 60-day injured list after throwing just 77 pitches in his final rehab appearance — that's a real red flag at that price, not a name to force into a lineup. Zack Littell (WSH) and Ryan Gusto (MIA) are the two arms correctly drawing almost no exposure, and nothing in their profiles argues for overriding that.

The Bottom Line

Today's 5-game early slate comes down to a pitcher pool that isn't as deep as the game count suggests. Tarik Skubal (DET) at $11,000 and Jesús Luzardo (PHI) at $9,500 are projected well clear of the rest of the field, on strikeout props and on raw fantasy-point projection alike, and Luzardo's road splits against his former team are the single biggest outlier on the board. Trevor Rogers (BAL) is the reasonable value lean behind them, Toronto is the chalk stack of the day, and the six-pitcher middle tier is close enough that reaching for one specific name over another isn't where the edge is. Run the same numbers yourself in the Stokastic MLB Data Hub before you lock today's lineups, and check our MLB DFS glossary if any of the terms above are new to you.

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For today's full pitcher board, stack ranks and projected ownership, head to the MLB DFS picks hub, or dig into the Stokastic Sims tutorial and our correlation and contrarian strategy guides if you're building your first lineup today.