NFL DFS Showdown Strategy: Projections, Correlation, Leverage

If you have ever fired a single-game lineup into a DraftKings 🎁 or FanDuel 🎁 Showdown contest on a Sunday or Monday night, you already know the appeal. Showdown is the format I look forward to most, and so do a lot of the pros I play against. The reason is simple: island games pull in a flood of casual entrants who just want some action on the only game on, so the books run enormous contests with generous prize pools. Yes, a field of hundreds of thousands of entries is harder to win outright, but when a big chunk of that field is casual money, the jump in difficulty is small next to the jump in the prizes. That is a trade I will take every week. This NFL DFS showdown strategy guide breaks the format into the three things that actually decide whether you cash: projections, correlation, and differentiation through ownership leverage.

In Summary (TL;DR)

• Start With Projections, But Think In Simulations. The lineup that scores the most points wins, so the foundation is projecting points and points-per-dollar. Stokastic's NFL Sims run the slate tens of thousands of times instead of trusting one projected score.
• Captain Math Is Correlation Math. On every passing play the pass catcher scores more fantasy points than the quarterback, so a non-rushing QB at Captain almost always needs at least two of his own pass catchers in the Flex.
• Leverage Wins GPPs, Not Raw Projection. Use Top Stacks and Ownership projections to find unique players and unique lineups, because lower ownership shrinks the field you split a prize with.
• Unique Lineups, Not Just Unique Players. A duplicated optimal lineup can turn a million-dollar night into a five-figure split.
• Leaving Salary On The Table Is The Cheapest Way To Get Unique in large-field Showdown, within reason.

How NFL DFS Showdown Scoring Works

Quick refresher so the strategy lands. In a Showdown contest you pick one Captain (sometimes called MVP on FanDuel) and five Flex players from a single game, both teams combined. The Captain costs 1.5x the salary but also scores 1.5x the fantasy points. That single multiplier is the engine of the whole format: getting the Captain right is worth more than any other decision you make, which is exactly why so much of NFL showdown strategy is really about who you put in that spot and why.

Go deeper: How to Play Underdog Fantasy (and Actually Win Money).

Projections: Build The Player Pool First

The goal in DFS is to make the lineup that puts up the most points, so a natural starting point is finding players likely to post high scores or high points-per-dollar. Some pros build their own projections; others lean on published projections and tools to decide which players should be the core of their lineups.

I do not want a single projected score, though. A point estimate hides the range of outcomes, and Showdown is all about the range. This is where I lean on Stokastic's NFL Sims rather than a static cheat sheet. The Sims run the actual contest tens of thousands of times, so instead of one number per player I get a distribution: how often a player lands in the optimal lineup, how often he is optimal specifically at Captain, and what his ceiling looks like when the game breaks his way. The free DFS Sims are the easiest place to see how that simulation output looks before you commit to a slate.

Practically, I use the Sims and the NFL DataHub projections to build the whole player pool first, then worry about which six players go together. Build the pool, find the top lineups, then nudge exposure up on the players I want more of and down on the ones I want less of. That sequence matters more than any single projection.

Correlation: The Captain Is A Correlation Decision

In NFL DFS, correlations are everywhere, both positive and negative. Some are obvious, like a quarterback with the receivers on his own team. Others take more thought, like how a kicker fares when a team's backup running back outruns his projection. For Showdown, the highest-value correlation question is what you pair with the quarterback, because that drives your Captain choice. Good showdown captain strategy is really just NFL showdown correlation applied to that 1.5x spot. Here is how I think about each case.

Non-rushing quarterback at Captain, with at least two pass catchers. Generally, though not always, quarterbacks cost more than their pass catchers. But on each passing play the pass catcher scores more fantasy points than the quarterback: not just the point for the reception, but more points per yard and per touchdown. So for a quarterback to be the optimal Captain, he usually needs to spread the ball around rather than feed one target. Some quarterbacks do that with their legs. For those who do not run much, the path to being optimal at Captain is throwing to more than one pass catcher. Once in a while a quarterback scores by throwing to a teammate who is not even in the player pool, but far more often, if you Captain a non-rushing quarterback, you need at least two of his pass catchers in the Flex.

For more on this, see Best Ball Draft Strategy: How to Win NFL Tournaments.

Rushing quarterback at Captain, with at least one pass catcher. If a quarterback puts up enough fantasy points on the ground, you may not need multiple pass catchers in the Flex. It still takes a lot for a quarterback to be optimal at Captain on rushing alone. I would not call a pass catcher in the Flex strictly necessary alongside a rushing quarterback, but more often than not even a rushing quarterback brings at least one pass catcher along for the ride.

Quarterback at Flex, pass catcher at Captain. Most of the time, if you have a rushing quarterback in a Flex spot, you want at least one of his pass catchers somewhere in the lineup. There is some chance a rushing quarterback goes for 50 yards and two scores while spreading the passing volume too thin to bring anyone with him. The same is not really true for a non-rushing quarterback: if he posts enough to be in the optimal lineup, he is almost certainly dragging a pass catcher in with him, whether at Captain or in another Flex.

The Sims do this correlation work for you. When you build through Stokastic's NFL Sims, the simulation keeps the quarterback and his pass catchers connected the way they actually score together, so you are not stitching uncorrelated names into a lineup by accident.

Want the simulator to do this for you? Stokastic's NFL Sims run your Showdown contest tens of thousands of times and surface which players are optimal at Captain versus Flex, with the quarterback-to-pass-catcher correlation built in, plus Top Stacks and Ownership leverage so you know where the field is wrong. New users get 10% off their first Stokastic Sims payment with code STOK10. Start with Stokastic Sims

Differentiation: Leverage And Ownership Win Showdown GPPs

Building highly projected lineups with smart correlations separates you from the lowest-level Showdown players, but plenty of casuals are sharp too. Differentiation is the step that separates the pros from the Joes, and it lives in the Sims as well: this whole leverage workflow is a GPP tactic, not a cash-game one (in single-game double-ups you simply want the highest-floor build).

In just about any NFL DFS tournament, finding low-owned gems is key, because lower ownership shrinks the field of lineups you are competing against when that player hits a 99th-percentile outcome. Take it to the extreme as a thought exercise. Say a running back scores 100 fantasy points on a Showdown slate. You do not just need him, you need him at Captain, where that becomes 150 points. If 20,000 lineups in your contest have him at Captain, you have effectively narrowed your competition to those 20,000. If only 200 lineups have him at Captain, now you are talking.

This is where NFL DFS ownership leverage does the work, and it is exactly what Stokastic's Top Stacks and Ownership projections are built to expose. The tool surfaces projected and optimal percentages for each player as Captain or Flex, and, more importantly, how much leverage that player offers. Negative-leverage players are getting owned more than they are likely to be optimal; positive-leverage players are not projected to be rostered enough given how often they land in the optimal lineup. That is the gap I am hunting every slate. If I play a player at, say, 10% when the field plays him at 4%, I am getting over the field on someone with real upside.

Find Unique Lineups, Not Just Unique Players

On NFL Showdown slates there is an extra wrinkle for large-field GPPs. We do not just want seldom-used players, we want seldom-used lineups. Two real Milly Maker results make the point.

Go deeper: How I Won the NFL DFS Millionaire Maker for $1 Million.

On September 20, 2021, DraftKings ran a Milly Maker for the Packers-Lions game, but the top lineup was duplicated 231 times. Instead of winning a million dollars, the people who entered those 231 lineups had to split the top 231 prizes, for a bit over $6,000 each. That happened despite everything going their way, which takes an extreme amount of luck.

On October 11, 2021, we saw the other end of the spectrum. A user named rcoho1984 played a unique lineup in the Ravens-Colts Milly Maker and took home not just $1 million but a ticket to the Tournament of Champions.

If you are going to win, which takes a lot of luck no matter how well your lineup projects, make it count. I am not saying you need a fully one-of-one lineup like rcoho1984 every single time. I am saying you want to be a lot closer to that than to a build duplicated 231 times.

Easy Tricks To Get Unique In NFL DFS Showdown

A few practical levers I pull once the pool and correlations are set.

Play a few low-owned players. Even if you are using other tricks to get unique, it is still smart to roster a player or two the field is ignoring. The Ownership view makes those easy to spot.

Embrace lineups missing a correlation piece, or even with some negative correlation. Highly correlated lineups tend to be over-owned, and the field avoids negative correlation at all costs. A couple of contrarian shapes I like:

• Quarterback against the opposing defense. The downside is obvious: when a defense plays well, it usually forced turnovers or stalled the offense, and the quarterback even loses a point on an interception. But the best case is sneaky good. If a quarterback throws a pick-six, the defense gets a major boost while the quarterback loses only one point, gets the ball back, and may be in a better pass-first game script. It is even better if the defensive score does not come off that quarterback, or comes on special teams.
• Pass catcher at Captain without his quarterback in the Flex. It works more often than you would think. On every passing play the receiver scores more than the quarterback, often at a lower salary, yet the field reflexively jams the quarterback into the Flex the moment it locks a pass catcher at Captain. I am not saying avoid the quarterback in every lineup, just that some builds without him are a clean way to get unique.
• Multiple running backs from the same team. Is there negative correlation? Probably, but nowhere near enough for the field to touch it; most people pick one back and pray he is the bell cow. The same logic occasionally opens up elsewhere. Years ago a lineup with both Chargers tight ends split a Milly four ways.

Leave salary on the table. I buried the lede a little here, because this is the easiest way to lower your duplicates. Casual players assume leftover salary means they should upgrade, and that habit funnels them into highly duplicated lineups. How much to leave is up to you, with two things to weigh. If salaries are efficient, every dollar you do not spend makes your lineup a touch less likely to be the top score, but it also raises your odds of a unique lineup, up to a point. It is a sliding scale based on risk tolerance, but I would leave at least $600 on the table, and on most slates if you have left $6,000+ unspent you have probably gone too far.

One caution on the tool here. The Stokastic Showdown Sims do not assume you will leave salary on the table. I still use them heavily to shape my player pool, but keep this in mind: if a $200 player is optimal 8% of the time, that may be because in many sims his two points let the lineup afford studs at every other spot using the full cap. He may be optimal far less often in lineups that leave salary unspent. The flip side is useful: that same cheap player might be projected for 12% ownership for the same reason, yet be nearly unowned in lineups that leave money on the table, because the only people doing that are jamming all their studs in.

And think about the lineup as a whole, not one-for-one swaps. It is tempting to build the perfect full-salary lineup and then drop the $9,000 receiver for a $2,000 one. Your lineup is now far more unique, leaving $7,000 unspent, and that $2,000 receiver might even outscore the $9,000 one. But that $7,000 can be used at any spot in your lineup. How likely is it that each player you rostered outscores every option up to $7,000 more expensive? How likely is it that every player does? Those are the questions to ask when deciding how much salary to leave behind.

How To Build A Showdown Lineup: A Worked Example

Here is the actual order I work in for a primetime NFL Showdown slate, so the pieces above connect into one process. Treat it as a worked example you can repeat every week.

1. Run the Sims and build the pool. Open Stokastic's NFL Sims, simulate the contest, and pull the optimal Captain and Flex rates for every player. This is the pool, not the lineup.
2. Anchor the Captain on correlation. If my top Captain is a non-rushing quarterback, I pencil in two of his pass catchers before anything else. If it is a rushing quarterback, I plan for one.
3. Check leverage on Top Stacks and Ownership. I cross the optimal rates against projected ownership and flag the positive-leverage players. Those are my differentiation seats.
4. Decide my salary slack. On a small single-entry build I might use almost all the cap. In a 150-max large-field GPP I will deliberately leave $600 to a few thousand on the table across a chunk of my lineups to cut duplicates.
5. Generate and shape exposures. I push the build through the DFS the Sims, set exposure caps on the chalk I want to fade, and floor exposure on the positive-leverage players I want to be overweight relative to the field.

That is the whole loop: project with Sims, correlate the Captain, leverage with Ownership, then get unique on purpose.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the best NFL DFS showdown strategy for tournaments? Build your player pool from simulations rather than a single projection, anchor your Captain on correlation (usually a quarterback with two of his pass catchers, or a pass catcher with upside), then differentiate with ownership leverage so you are not splitting prizes with thousands of duplicate lineups.

Who should I put at Captain in NFL Showdown? The player most likely to be optimal at Captain in your Sims, weighed against ownership. A non-rushing quarterback at Captain usually needs at least two of his pass catchers in the Flex, while a rushing quarterback can sometimes get there with one.

What is ownership leverage in NFL DFS showdown? Leverage is the gap between how often a player is projected to be rostered and how often he is actually optimal. Stokastic's Top Stacks and Ownership tools surface positive-leverage players who are under-owned relative to their chance of hitting, which is how you separate from the field in a GPP.

Should I leave salary on the table in Showdown? Often, yes, in large-field tournaments. Leaving salary unspent lowers how often your exact lineup is duplicated. A reasonable range is roughly $600 up to a few thousand on most slates; leaving $6,000+ usually sacrifices too much projected scoring.

Does Stokastic have an NFL Showdown tool? Yes. Stokastic's NFL Sims simulate single-game contests tens of thousands of times and report optimal Captain and Flex percentages, with Top Stacks, Ownership leverage, and the DFS the Sims for building and shaping exposures. You can preview the simulation output with the free DFS Sims.

Build Your Showdown Lineups With Stokastic

Showdown rewards the player who projects accurately, correlates the Captain correctly, and gets unique on purpose. Doing all three by hand on a fast primetime slate is a grind. Stokastic Sims does it for you: the NFL Sims run your exact contest tens of thousands of times, Top Stacks and Ownership projections flag the positive-leverage plays the field is sleeping on, and the DFS the Sims builds and shapes your exposures so your lineups stay unique. New to Stokastic? Start with the free DFS Sims to see the simulation output, then use code STOK10 for 10% off your first Stokastic Sims payment.

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