The Open PGA DFS Showdown Picks: Round 1
July 16, 2026
The Open PGA DFS Showdown Picks: Round 1 (July 16, 2026)
Round 1 of the The Open is a single-round DraftKings Showdown slate, a different game from the weekly main slate: six golfers, a $50,000 cap, one round of golf, and no captain multiplier. The main slate has already locked, so this is the live golf DFS for July 16, 2026. These picks come from the Stokastic PGA Sims run on the Round 1 slate specifically, not the full tournament. New to the format? Start with our PGA DFS strategy guide.
In Summary
- Slate: The Open Round 1, a single-round DraftKings Showdown — six golfers, a $50,000 cap, no captain.
- Top Projected + Leverage Play: Rory McIlroy (34.08 projected points) at just 13.4% projected ownership — the highest projection on the slate going under-owned, which is the leverage edge. The slate's chalk (collin morikawa at 21.8% projected ownership) is where the field is concentrated.
- Best Value: Michael Brennan ($7,000, 26.48 projected points) headlines a deep $6K tier that makes Showdown a value-builder's format.
- The Tactic (Tournaments): salary matters less over one round, so unused cap is fine — leaving money on the table is how you land a high-ceiling, low-duplication lineup. In a single-game cash contest, do the opposite: spend toward the top tier and prioritize floor over uniqueness.
Top Round 1 Showdown Plays
- Rory McIlroy (Golf G, $12200): 34.08 proj pts, 13.4% projected ownership, -0.02 leverage
- Matt Fitzpatrick (Golf G, $10800): 31.99 proj pts, 16.3% projected ownership, -0.05 leverage
- Xander Schauffele (Golf G, $10200): 31.71 proj pts, 21.0% projected ownership, -0.06 leverage
- Collin Morikawa (Golf G, $9500): 31.16 proj pts, 21.8% projected ownership, -0.08 leverage
- Chris Gotterup (Golf G, $9300): 30.46 proj pts, 20.2% projected ownership, -0.07 leverage
- Cameron Young (Golf G, $9700): 30.38 proj pts, 14.2% projected ownership, -0.02 leverage
When we build a single-round Showdown, we read the Sims differently than a four-round main slate: one round compresses the field, so projection gaps between golfers shrink and ownership leverage matters more. The Sims project Rory McIlroy highest for Round 1 at 34.08 points, and at just 13.4% projected ownership he is the leverage play, not the chalk: the best projection on the board is going under-owned while the field crowds onto the slate's chalk (Collin Morikawa at 21.8% projected ownership). Pairing a high-projection, low-owned golfer like Rory McIlroy with the chalk is the single-round edge. On our scale, a negative leverage number just means a golfer is higher-owned than his projection alone justifies. The sharper single-round value sits in the tier right behind the top and in the $6K range below. In a one-round slate, a single hot round from a mid-priced golfer can outscore a favorite over 18 holes just as easily as it can over four days, and we lean on the Sims' ceiling projection more heavily here because 18 holes is a small sample where upside beats floor.
Run the Round 1 board yourself. Take these single-round projections, ownership, and ceilings into the Stokastic PGA Sims and build by win probability across thousands of simulated contests instead of eyeballing the slate. Code PGADFS10 takes 10% off your first Stokastic+ payment: Start with the PGA Sims.
Value Plays For The Round 1 Showdown
The single-round format lives and dies on cheap golfers who can post a low number, and the Sims flag a few worth targeting in the $6K range:
- Michael Brennan ($7,000): 26.48 proj pts, 9.7% projected ownership.
- Pierceson Coody ($7,000): 25.56 proj pts, 7.9% projected ownership.
- John Parry ($6,900): 24.91 proj pts, 5.8% projected ownership.
- Jackson Suber ($6,800): 24.86 proj pts, 6.7% projected ownership.
Any two of these let you afford a stud or two up top while staying well under the cap. For more on cheap-plays-plus-studs construction, see our DFS tournaments guide.
How To Build A Golf Showdown Lineup
Showdown construction is not main-slate construction, and it splits by contest type. In tournaments, salary matters far less over a single round, so leaving cap unspent is fine and is often how you land a low-duplication lineup that can win outright, because the field rarely duplicates Showdown rosters. In cash games, do the opposite: spend toward the highest-floor six and never sacrifice projected points for uniqueness. Either way, lean toward birdie-or-better upside over safe pars, since one round rewards aggression, and weigh the tee-time wave: if conditions split between the morning and afternoon groups, the easier wave is worth targeting. There is no captain or multiplier in golf Showdown, so your score is simply the best six one-round totals, every roster spot carries equal weight, and one cold round from a high-salary golfer can sink the whole lineup. We pressure-test every build in the Sims: the model simulates the round thousands of times, and the tool surfaces how often each golfer lands in an optimal lineup, so we weight by win probability rather than chase the highest raw projection. And we never run the same six golfers in both a cash game and a large-field tournament, which is one of the most common DFS mistakes.
A Sample Round 1 Showdown Lineup
Here is one $46,500 build that puts the single-round principles to work: two cheaper top-tier golfers, then four value plays the Sims still like, leaving $3,500 on the table to keep the lineup unique in a tournament.
| Golfer | Salary | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Gotterup | $9,300 | 30.46 |
| Collin Morikawa | $9,500 | 31.16 |
| Michael Brennan | $7,000 | 26.48 |
| Pierceson Coody | $7,000 | 25.56 |
| John Parry | $6,900 | 24.91 |
| Jackson Suber | $6,800 | 24.86 |
| Total | $46,500 | 163.43 |
This build leans on the value tier instead of paying up for Rory McIlroy at $12,200 — a single round does not require the top projection, and spreading salary across golfers the model still likes gives you more ways to win. The $3,500 left unspent is a feature of a GPP build, not a mistake; in a cash game you would instead spend up for the highest-floor six.
One last check before lock. Whatever six golfers you settle on, pressure-test the build in the Stokastic PGA Sims first. Code PGADFS10 is 10% off your first Stokastic+ payment: Get Stokastic+.
FAQ
Who is the top Round 1 Showdown play for the The Open? The Stokastic PGA Sims project Rory McIlroy highest for Round 1 at 34.08 points, and at just 13.4% projected ownership he is a leverage play — the top projection going under-owned, while the field's chalk is the slate's chalk (Collin Morikawa at 21.8% projected ownership).
Does golf Showdown have a captain or multiplier like NFL and NBA Showdown? No. Golf Showdown has no captain or MVP multiplier. Your lineup score is the combined total of your six golfers' single-round scores, so every roster spot is weighted equally.
How is a Showdown slate different from the weekly main slate? The main slate covers all four rounds and locked earlier in the week; a Showdown is a single round (here, Round 1) with its own salaries. Salary matters less over one round, duplicate lineups are rarer, and you are building around one day of form rather than a full week.