The Open Championship 2026 PGA DFS Picks & Strategy
July 15, 2026
The Open Championship 2026 PGA DFS Picks At Royal Birkdale
The last major of the season is a true links test, and the fun of it is that nobody at the top of the DraftKings board is a lock. These are our The Open Championship DFS picks for golf's fourth major at Royal Birkdale, straight off this week's Stokastic PGA Strategy Show, where Ben Rasa walked the entire field. His read on the week is simple: win equity is spread across the top, the golf course is baked out and unpredictable, and the edge is structure rather than chasing one name.
For the projections board updated through lock, see our PGA DFS Picks hub. For the fundamentals of salary, stacking, and ownership in golf DFS, the PGA DFS strategy guide covers the construction rules this piece assumes.
In Summary
- The Studs Rank Fleetwood, Rory, Rahm, Then Scheffler. Win equity is dispersed at the top, so the smart move is pairing two names rather than locking one, and there is a leverage angle in going off the Scheffler chalk.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900) Over Justin Rose ($9,100). Hatton is the better links value at a lower price and a priority play this week.
- Collin Morikawa Is An Important Play. If Birkdale plays soft and turns into an iron contest, his approach game carries the day.
- Bob MacIntyre ($8,000) Is Built For This. A Scot who plays links golf in his sleep, with three career top-10s at Opens and elite ball-striking last week.
- Value Runs Deep: Hideki Matsuyama ($6,900), Harris English ($6,700), Rickie Fowler ($6,500), and David Puig ($6,500) all fit.
- The Pay-Up Build Graded 23.8% In The Sims: Bob MacIntyre, Rickie Fowler, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa, and a 2-for-2 swap pushed it higher still.
Watch The Video
Ben Rasa breaks down every salary tier, the live ownership picture, and three Stokastic Sims builds for The Open Championship in the show above.
The Course: Royal Birkdale Is A Baked-Out Links Test
Start with what makes this week different. Royal Birkdale is a par 70 at roughly 7,200 yards, and it is a genuine links, so accuracy is the currency. Spray it and you are in fescue, and the bunkers here are the punishing kind. The last time the Open came here in 2017, the winner got to 12-under in wet, nasty conditions, and that number is worth throwing out entirely. This week the course is burnt out and dry, there could be a ton of run, and the wind is the great unknown.
There is also a quirk unique to the Open that shapes how you build. Unlike a normal event that sends players off the first and tenth tees, the Open tees everyone off a single tee roughly every ten minutes for about a ten-hour window. A golfer can finish his round hours before the next wave even starts, and the conditions between those waves can be different enough that they barely resemble the same day. That is exactly why tee-time stacking matters more here than at a typical tournament, and it is a thread we will come back to when we build.
Build note: at the Open, golfers who share a tee-time wave also share a draw of wind and course conditions. Grouping a few of them is a cheap way to get unique in a giant field.
The fit read follows from all of that. If the wind stays down, this becomes an approach and putting contest and the pure iron players separate. If it blows, the links specialists and accurate ball-strikers who can control trajectory move up. Length still helps, but a shorter, precise player can club down and be perfectly fine.
The Top Of The Board: Win Equity Is Spread Out
This is where most builds begin, and the honest truth is that the top of a major board offers very little pushback. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, and Ludvig Aberg all belong. The interesting part is how Ben ranks them: Fleetwood first, McIlroy second, Rahm third, and Scheffler fourth. No single name owns the win this week.
| Golfer | The Read |
|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | Five straight top-15s and a ton of Open experience; the game fits, and the only question is whether he closes |
| Rory McIlroy | Nearly two decades of links reps; dominates off the tee and picks his aggressive spots |
| Jon Rahm | Came in 36th last week but rallied from a dead Thursday; strong Open history |
| Scottie Scheffler | Won this major last year and is the best player alive, but he is coming off a rare missed cut and rising ownership |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Playing lights-out golf all year, third in Scotland last week |
| Xander Schauffele | Coming off a missed cut where he lost strokes off the tee for the first time since February; a throwaway data point |
Fleetwood at the top is the tell. He has five consecutive top-15s coming in, and while only one of those is a top-10 (with a run of 11th, 11th, 14th, and 13th), that is exactly the consistent, course-fitting profile you want at a links major. The whole tier is close enough that you can take two of these names and feel comfortable, particularly if one of them is not Scheffler. Nobody here should be a lock-and-hammer play, and that is the entire reason this slate is buildable so many different ways.
Just Off The Top: Hatton Over Rose, And A Scot Built For Birkdale
The board gets interesting the moment you drop below the elites, because a few names are priced right on top of players you usually see in a completely different tier.
Justin Rose ($9,100) is the first pause. He shows up in the biggest events, with an 11th at the US Open, a 10th at the PGA, and a third at the Masters this year, plus a runner-up at the Open a couple of seasons ago. The resume is real. The price is just a touch rich for our taste. The preferred play right below him is Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900), a golfer who has seen and done everything on links and is grading out with strong leverage thanks to his ownership. He is a priority play at the number this week.
Then there is Bob MacIntyre ($8,000), and this is the one to circle. A Scot by birth, he plays links golf in his sleep, and he was fantastic last week at the Scottish with absolutely elite ball-striking. His five top-10s in major championships include three at Opens, which makes this plainly his best major. He is built for this, the price is fair at a flat eight, and he should not be comically owned. If you want one mid-tier name to trust, it is him.
The Mid-Range Ball-Strikers
The next band is stuffed with names that fit the course, and it is where a balanced build fills out. This is a no-salary section by design, because the show did not put exact tags on these players and we will not invent them.
| Golfer | The Read |
|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | An important play; if it becomes an iron competition, his approach game is elite, and he was dynamite at the Travelers |
| Viktor Hovland | Just took down Scheffler head-to-head; graded ahead of the popular names below him |
| Russell Henley | Can heat up on approach the way Morikawa does; the more interesting of the popular options |
| Wyndham Clark | Playing amazing right now |
| Shane Lowry | A proven wind and links player even if the conditions stay calm |
| Sam Burns | Likely more popular; graded a notch behind MacIntyre and Hovland |
| Justin Thomas | Creative around the greens, which links golf rewards; needs to flip a cold approach week |
| Joaquin Niemann | Best major showing last time out with a seventh; the price is right |
The name that carries this tier is Collin Morikawa. His profile fits a 20-under links winner more than a six-under grind, so he is the direct beneficiary if Birkdale plays soft and the field goes low. Pair him with another approach specialist like Russell Henley and you have the ball-striking core the course rewards in calm air.
The Value Tier: Where Birkdale Opens Up
The cheaper end of this slate is unusually rich, full of legitimate players rather than bodies you are forced to punt. Here the show did give salaries, so the whole tier is priced.
| Golfer | Salary | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Reed | $7,000 | Hit or miss lately and not a name we see every week; a dart at the price |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $6,900 | Back in form off the tee at the Travelers and a great scrambler; a comfortable last-man-in |
| Harris English | $6,700 | Can really roll it, knows his way around weather, and has the experience for a demanding week |
| Rickie Fowler | $6,500 | Back in decent form after a 38th and a 15th; a buy at this number |
| David Puig | $6,500 | Improved by roughly 11 strokes from Thursday to Friday last week; worth running back |
| Matt Wallace | $6,300 | Elite irons but a brutal putter at the Scottish; a steal if he flips the flat stick |
| Jesper Svensson | $5,700 | Super consistent off the tee, a fourth in Canada and a made cut in Scotland; a fine punt |
The buy signal in this group is Rickie Fowler ($6,500). His year has been a roller coaster, a strong early stretch, then a run of missed cuts, and now a 38th and a 15th say he is back in decent form. At this price you do not need much exposure to be rewarded if the good version shows up. David Puig ($6,500) is the higher-variance version of the same bet: his Thursday-to-Friday swing last week was massive, and you can grab him at a good price without over-allocating.
Where The Leverage Lives
Leverage in golf DFS is mostly a function of ownership, and the clearest lever this week sits at the very top. Scheffler's price came down after the missed cut and his ownership climbed, so he is shaping up as the chalk of the elites. Ranking him fourth of the top four is not a fade, it is a nudge on how you build the top of a roster: pair two studs and make one of them not Scheffler. You still bank elite win equity, but you own a top pairing a big slice of the field does not, and the price break on Scheffler this week is exactly what makes that pivot cheap to pull off.
The leverage read: Scheffler is the chalk of the elites this week, so building your top pairing around other studs is separation you get almost for free.
That is also where the Open's split tee-time waves come back into play. Because a full field tees off across a ten-hour window, grouping golfers who play in the same wave lets you capture a shared draw of wind and course conditions, another low-cost way to differentiate a lineup. Pull the full projections, ownership, and leverage board on the Stokastic PGA DataHub before lock; if you are new to the tool, the Stokastic PGA Sims guide walks through reading it end to end.
Worked Example: Three Builds From The Stokastic Sims
On the show, three lineups went through the Stokastic single-lineup simulator, each seeded by hand and then completed with a touch of randomness so the tool does the heavy lifting. Use them as starting points for a deep major slate, not as locked rosters.
| Build | Core | Simulated ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (Cheap Core) | Three cheap seeds, filled out with Scheffler, Rose, and Cantlay | 15.8% |
| 2 (Pay-Up Favorites) | MacIntyre, Fowler, Niemann, Henley, Fitzpatrick, Morikawa | 23.8% |
| 3 (Fire It Back Up) | Build 2 core with Noren and Hojgaard swapped in | Higher still |
Build 1 (Cheap Core): Seed three cheap plays, add a little randomness, and let the simulator finish the roster. It surfaced a shape leaning on Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, and Patrick Cantlay, and it graded green on the first run at 15.8% simulated ROI. A fine starting point even if you would tweak the finish.
Build 2 (Pay-Up Favorites): Start from the preferred names and let it climb. This one seeded Bob MacIntyre, Rickie Fowler, and Joaquin Niemann, and the simulator filled it out with Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa. That is a full six of ball-strikers who fit the course, and it graded at 23.8% simulated ROI, the strongest of the seeded builds before he started swapping.
Build 3 (Fire It Back Up): Keep the Build 2 core and get more aggressive on a couple of pivots. Swapping two names out for the lower-owned value pair of Alex Noren and Rasmus Hojgaard, then re-running, pushed the simulated ROI even higher. It is the same idea as locking a core and generating around it: you keep what you love and let the tool hunt for a better shape around the edges.
30% off Stokastic All Access: Code ACCESS30 takes 30% off your first month of Stokastic All Access, which bundles PGA with MLB, MMA, and NASCAR. The projections, ownership, leverage data, and the single-lineup simulator used on the show above are all included. Get the discount here.
The throughline across all three builds is the lesson Ben hammers in golf: it is a six-man lineup, so you need a path. The 23.8% pay-up build got there by loading links-fit ball-strikers like MacIntyre and Morikawa, and the 2-for-2 swap into cheaper value squeezed even more out of that same core. Run your own core through the Sims, lean on the tee-time waves to differentiate, and pick the shape you want to attack Royal Birkdale with.
FAQ
Who is the top The Open Championship DFS pick at Royal Birkdale? There is no single must-play. Tommy Fleetwood grades out first among the studs on the strength of five straight top-15s and a game that fits links golf, ahead of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler. Because the top is this bunched, pairing two of these names is smarter than locking one.
Who are the best value plays in The Open Championship DFS? Rickie Fowler ($6,500) is the standout buy, back in form after a rough middle stretch, and David Puig ($6,500) is the higher-variance version at the same price. Hideki Matsuyama ($6,900) and Harris English ($6,700) round out a deep value tier, with Jesper Svensson ($5,700) as a consistent off-the-tee punt.
How does Royal Birkdale change The Open Championship DFS strategy? It is a baked-out par-70 links, so accuracy and ball-striking matter more than raw distance, and the wind is the swing factor. The Open also tees the field off one tee across a ten-hour window, so tee-time stacking golfers who share a wave is a real way to capture matching conditions and build a roster the field does not have.
Who should I leverage in tournaments this week? Scottie Scheffler is the chalk of the elites after his price dropped and his ownership rose, so building the top of your lineup around other studs is the cleanest leverage. Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900) grades well on ownership, and lower-owned value like David Puig ($6,500) gives you separation in a giant field.
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