MLB Division Race Odds: Three AL Races Are Wide Open

The 2026 MLB division race odds are really two different boards wearing one label. On Kalshi's six division-winner markets, the National League is priced as chalk: the Dodgers trade at 97 cents to win the NL West (98 at the ask), the Braves at 91 in the East, and the Brewers at 76 in the Central. The American League is where the races live, and it is stranger than close. All three AL favorites sit between 47 and 69 cents, and the strangest price on the whole board belongs to a team in first place: the White Sox lead the AL Central and their contract trades at 50 cents, a literal coin flip. Hold that one, because the reason the market refuses to price this first-place team past a coin flip is the same reason this page reads the entire board the way a DFS player reads an ownership page.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi's six MLB division markets price the NL as chalk, with the Dodgers at about 97%, the Braves at 91%, and the Brewers at 76%, and the AL as three live races: the Rays at about 69% in the East, the White Sox at a flat 50% in the Central, and the Astros near 47% in a West they lead by half a game. The six boards have traded about 7.1 million contracts combined, and the money is concentrated where the argument is, with the AL Central alone taking more than half of the last 24 hours of trading. The full board, the price-to-probability math with Kalshi's fee formula, and the two races where the market is openly fading the standings are all below.

The Full Board, One Table

Prices are rounded from the live Kalshi order book on August 10, 2026 (bid/ask midpoint or last trade); records and games back from MLB's official standings the same day. Each contract settles Yes when its team clinches the division and No when it is eliminated, the listed close date on all six events is November 15, 2026, and every market can settle earlier on a clinch.

The row worth staring at is the middle one. Every other favorite's price roughly tracks its cushion, but the White Sox hold a division lead and get priced like a toss-up. That is not the market being asleep. It is the market telling you it projects the chasing team as better than the leading one, which is exactly the gap this page exists to walk through.

The AL Central: First Place At 50 Cents

Chicago sits at 61-56 with a 3.5-game lead on Detroit, and the market splits them 50 to 23. The reason lives one layer under the standings: the Tigers' run differential is +87, the best in the division by a wide margin, against +37 for the White Sox, and Cleveland at 19 cents and Minnesota at 11 keep two more live arguments on the board. A team outscoring opponents like Detroit has usually banked more wins than 58-60; the market is pricing the underlying performance, not the column of wins, the same way a projection-driven player prices a hitter off expected stats instead of a hot week of box scores.

The price history agrees with the framing. The AL Central is the hottest division board on Kalshi right now, with about 70,600 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, roughly 56% of all division-race trading combined, and about 82% of that action is on Detroit and Cleveland rather than the leader. Detroit is also the board's lifetime volume leader at about 440,000 contracts against 295,000 for Chicago. In DFS terms, the field is loading up on the pivot, not the chalk. Whether that crowd is right is a different question from whether it is crowded, a distinction our guide to what transfers from DFS to prediction markets spends a full section on.

The AL West: A Half-Game Race Nobody Trusts

The same shape repeats one board over, with thinner margins everywhere. Houston leads Texas by half a game at 60-59, and both contenders are being outscored on the season: the Astros' run differential is -28, the Rangers' is -33. The market prices that mutual mediocrity honestly, Houston near 47 cents, Texas near 36, and Seattle at 16 despite sitting four games back with a -19 differential of its own. No contract in the division clears 50%, which makes this the only race on the board where the market's favorite is an underdog against the field.

Here is the microstructure echo from the Central: Seattle, the third choice, is this board's most-traded contract at about 448,000 lifetime contracts, a nose ahead of Houston. On every live AL board so far, the lifetime volume leader is a chaser. Traders concentrate where the argument is, the same way GPP entries pool on the interesting pivot rather than the obvious favorite, and the same pattern shows up on player boards in our Kalshi versus DFS pick'em apps comparison.

The AL East: When The Market Does Trust A Lead

The counterexample completes the AL picture. Tampa Bay is 71-46, has won six straight, and leads the Yankees by 5.5 games, and the market pays the Rays 69 cents for it. What keeps the price from running higher is the run-differential wrinkle again, this time inverted: both chasers own better differentials than the leader, the Yankees at +82 and the Red Sox at +84 against Tampa Bay's +46. The market's compromise between a big lead and a modest underlying edge is 69 cents, with the Yankees at 20 and Boston at 14 holding real value as live arguments. A 5.5-game cushion with about seven weeks left is worth a lot; it is not worth 90 cents when the teams behind you have outplayed you by the underlying numbers. And the chaser-volume pattern completes itself here: the Yankees, not the Rays, are this board's lifetime volume leader at about 325,000 contracts against Tampa Bay's 249,000, which makes it three for three across the live AL races.

The NL: Three Chalk Holds And One Leverage Play

Cross leagues and the product changes completely. Milwaukee at 74-44, Atlanta at 71-47, and Los Angeles at 70-48 hold the three best records in the National League, all with run differentials of +120 or better, and their contracts price accordingly at 76, 91, and 97 cents. The NL East traded 768 contracts in the last 24 hours. The Dodgers and Braves are near-certainties at this point; the Brewers at 76 cents still leave a real 24% tail, and that tail has a name.

The board in one line: the NL is three chalk holds at 76 to 97 cents, the AL is three live arguments at 47 to 69 cents, and on all three live AL boards the volume leader is a chaser, not the favorite. Price is the projection; volume is the ownership.

The one live NL argument is Chicago's other team. The Cubs trade near 23 cents in the NL Central, 5.5 games behind Milwaukee with a +107 run differential, and they are the only non-leader in the National League priced above a dime. Notice what a Cubs division contract actually is: Chicago leads the wild-card race by six games, so the playoff berth is close to banked, and the division ticket is a pure bet on running down a 74-44 team. That is max-leverage logic, low probability of a high payout you do not need for the season to be a success, and it is why the NL Central is, quietly, the highest-volume division market on Kalshi at about 1.55 million lifetime contracts. Even a mostly decided race keeps trading when one contract carries the argument.

How A Price Becomes A Probability

The translation layer, in one sentence: a Yes contract pays $1 or $0, so its price in cents reads directly as an implied probability, and because exactly one team wins each division, the five contracts on a board sum to about 100 cents, which these six boards do within about three cents at midpoints, a small fraction of the overround a sportsbook builds into a comparable multi-way futures board. That near-face-value property is the core exchange advantage, and it holds on props too, as our Kalshi versus PrizePicks comparison shows.

The less obvious layer is where the fees land. Kalshi's standard taker fee is 0.07 times price times one minus price per contract, which peaks at exactly the coin-flip prices where this board's most interesting contracts trade:

Fees computed at the August 10 ask prices, since the ask is what a taker actually pays.

Mid-priced races cost the most toll, which matters precisely on the AL boards where every interesting contract is mid-priced.

A Worked Example: Both Sides Of A Half-Game Race

Run 100 contracts through the AL West book at the August 10 asks. One hundred Astros Yes at the 48-cent ask cost $48.00 plus a taker fee of 0.07 x 100 x 0.48 x 0.52, about $1.75, so $49.75 committed to win $100.00, a profit of about $50.25 if Houston holds on. One hundred Rangers Yes at the 37-cent ask cost $37.00 plus about $1.63 in fees, $38.63 committed for a $61.37 profit. The two positions cannot both cash, exactly like two captains from the same game, and if a third team steals the division both stakes are gone in full; there is no partial credit on a futures contract. A half-game standings gap is the entire difference between paying 48 and paying 37. Sizing matters more than usual here: these contracts run until a clinch, so a division position is a weeks-long hold against a bankroll, not a slate entry you re-enter tomorrow.

What Moves This Board Before October

The catalysts are concrete, and the schedule is the biggest one. The White Sox still play Detroit seven more times before the season ends, plus six against Minnesota and three against Cleveland, so the AL Central's coin flip gets decided largely head-to-head; that is why the price history is piling into this board now rather than waiting. The AL West is the opposite case: Houston and Texas have zero remaining games against each other, so a half-game race will be settled entirely against third parties, which raises the variance on both contracts. And Tampa Bay meets the Yankees four more times and Boston three, enough schedule for the +82 and +84 run differentials behind them to bite if the streak cools. We are not publishing invented model numbers on this page; it reads the live market against the official standings, and our standing AI-panel process adds full model verdicts on a future refresh, where every panel number gets logged and graded against settlement in our backtest rather than quietly forgotten. A panel treatment of the closest race already lives on our sister site's AL East model verdict, the full postseason bracket board covers what these six races feed into, and our own daily sims-versus-market reads run in Kalshi MLB picks today.

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