Top Kalshi MLB Picks Today: Stokastic Sims Vs The Market
By Jake Hari
August 4, 2026
Top Kalshi MLB Picks Today: Stokastic Sims Vs The Market
Every morning, Stokastic's simulation engine plays out the day's MLB slate thousands of times, the same engine behind our DFS projections. Every day, Kalshi's traders price the same games and the same home run hitters in cents on a regulated exchange. This page puts the two next to each other and highlights where they disagree, then grades every published call against settlement, in public, the next day.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi prices MLB game winners and player home run contracts in cents, and a cent reads as a percentage point of probability. Stokastic's Sims produce their own probabilities for the same events from simulated at-bats, not from odds. Where the two agree, the market is probably right. Where they split by several points, one of them is wrong, and that is worth knowing about before first pitch. Today's game board, the top home run gaps, and the graded record are below.
Today's Games: Sims Runs Vs Market Price
The Sims do not output a team win percentage, so we do not invent one. What they do produce is a projected run total for every team on the slate, built from simulated lineups against tonight's actual starters. This board shows the projected run edge next to Kalshi's two-sided game price, and flags where the run edge and the market lean point at different teams.
Fetched August 4, 2026 at 12:01 PM ET.
| Game | Sims Projected Runs | Kalshi Price | Sims Lean | Market Lean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs CHC | LAD 5.6 — CHC 3.9 | LAD 66c / CHC 34c | LAD | LAD | agrees |
| TB vs COL | TB 6.6 — COL 5.1 | TB 62c / COL 38c | TB | TB | agrees |
| SF vs TEX | SF 3.5 — TEX 4.6 | SF 36c / TEX 64c | TEX | TEX | agrees |
| STL vs NYY | STL 3.8 — NYY 4.8 | STL 36c / NYY 64c | NYY | NYY | agrees |
| MIN vs KC | MIN 5.2 — KC 4.3 | MIN 58c / KC 42c | MIN | MIN | agrees |
| MIA vs ATL | MIA 4.6 — ATL 5.1 | MIA 42c / ATL 58c | ATL | ATL | agrees |
| PIT vs MIL | PIT 3.6 — MIL 4.0 | PIT 42c / MIL 58c | MIL | MIL | agrees |
| CWS vs BOS | CWS 4.5 — BOS 4.8 | CWS 46c / BOS 56c | BOS | BOS | agrees |
| TOR vs HOU | TOR 4.2 — HOU 4.5 | TOR 46c / HOU 54c | HOU | HOU | agrees |
| DET vs SEA | DET 3.8 — SEA 4.1 | DET 46c / SEA 54c | SEA | SEA | agrees |
A disagrees row is not a pick to hammer; it is the day's most interesting question. Sometimes the market knows something the lineup sheet does not, a scratch, a bullpen day, weather. Sometimes the Sims see a matchup the price has not caught up to. The graded ledger settles who was right, one row per day.
Today's Top Home Run Gaps
This is the sharper edge of the page, because here the Sims produce exactly the number the contract asks about: the probability that a specific hitter goes deep today. Kalshi's 1+ home run contracts price the same event in cents. The five biggest gaps, in either direction:
Fetched August 4, 2026 at 12:01 PM ET.
| Hitter | Team | Sims HR% | Kalshi 1+ HR Mid | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR vs HOU | 19.8% | 11.5c | +8.3 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA vs DET | 23.9% | 19.5c | +4.4 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs CHC | 31.8% | 27.5c | +4.3 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD vs CHC | 16.6% | 12.5c | +4.1 |
| Manny Machado | SD vs ARI | 19.0% | 15.5c | +3.5 |
A positive gap means the Sims like the homer more than the market does; a negative gap means the market is paying for a home run the Sims do not project at that rate. The full board of every Kalshi-listed hitter runs every day alongside this page.
The Record, In Public
Grading begins with tomorrow's edition — every gap published today is recorded and graded against Kalshi settlement, win or lose, on the Sims vs Kalshi ledger.
Why we grade in public: anyone can publish picks. The only way a projection-versus-market page means anything is if every published gap gets settled against the exchange's own result and stays on the record, the misses included. That is what the Sims vs Kalshi ledger is for.
How To Read A Kalshi Price
If exchange contracts are new to you: a yes contract at 40 cents pays $1.00 if the event happens, so the market is charging you like a 40% chance. Both sides trade, so 40c yes implies 60c no. The spread between bid and ask is the cost of crossing the book, usually a few cents on these markets, and it is the house edge that actually exists here. Our sister site's guide to how to bet sports on Kalshi covers the mechanics end to end.
Built From The Sims
Every number in the tables above comes from the Stokastic MLB Sims, the projection engine our DFS subscribers build lineups with: simulated at-bats against tonight's real starters, park and lineup context included, refreshed as lineups confirm. If you want the projections themselves, not just the gaps, the Sims are the product, and the daily MLB DFS picks page shows the same engine pointed at DraftKings slates.
FAQ
What are Kalshi MLB picks? Contracts on games and home runs, priced in cents as probabilities. We compare those prices to our simulations daily and publish the biggest disagreements.
Where do the numbers come from? Sims side: Stokastic's slate simulations, the same ones behind our DFS projections. Market side: Kalshi's live order books, fetched the morning of publication and stamped with their fetch time.
Are the calls graded? Every one, against Kalshi settlement, on the public ledger linked above. Wins and losses both stay on the record.
Is a gap a guaranteed edge? No. It is a documented disagreement between a model and a market, with a public record of how those disagreements have settled.
Nothing on this page is betting advice. Kalshi event contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives; a position can lose its full value. 18+; availability is state-specific. Numbers reflect their stamped fetch time and move all day.