What are Kalshi MLB picks?

Kalshi lists yes/no contracts on MLB games and player home runs, priced in cents that read as probabilities. This page compares those prices to Stokastic's slate simulations every day and highlights the contracts where the two disagree most.

Where do these picks come from?

From the same simulation engine that powers Stokastic's DFS projections. The Sims play out each slate thousands of times and produce per-hitter home run probabilities and projected team run totals, which we place next to Kalshi's live prices.

Are the picks graded?

Yes, every published gap is recorded the day it appears and graded against Kalshi's own settlement, win or lose, on our public Sims vs Kalshi ledger. Nothing is quietly dropped.

Do gaps guarantee profit?

No. A gap means our model and the market disagree, and the graded ledger shows how often each side has been right. Markets are efficient, spreads cost real money, and any single call can lose.

Top Kalshi MLB Picks Today: Stokastic Sims Vs The Market

By Jake Hari

August 4, 2026

Top Kalshi MLB Picks Today: Stokastic Sims Vs The Market

Every morning, Stokastic's simulation engine plays out the day's MLB slate thousands of times, the same engine behind our DFS projections. Every day, Kalshi's traders price the same games and the same home run hitters in cents on a regulated exchange. This page puts the two next to each other and highlights where they disagree, then grades every published call against settlement, in public, the next day.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi prices MLB game winners and player home run contracts in cents, and a cent reads as a percentage point of probability. Stokastic's Sims produce their own probabilities for the same events from simulated at-bats, not from odds. Where the two agree, the market is probably right. Where they split by several points, one of them is wrong, and that is worth knowing about before first pitch. Today's game board, the top home run gaps, and the graded record are below.

Today's Games: Sims Runs Vs Market Price

The Sims do not output a team win percentage, so we do not invent one. What they do produce is a projected run total for every team on the slate, built from simulated lineups against tonight's actual starters. This board shows the projected run edge next to Kalshi's two-sided game price, and flags where the run edge and the market lean point at different teams.

Fetched September 17, 2026 at 3:21 PM ET.

Game	Sims Projected Runs	Kalshi Price	Sims Lean	Market Lean
DET vs CWS	DET 4.4 — CWS 4.3	DET 48c / CWS 52c	DET	CWS	disagrees
KC vs HOU	KC 4.3 — HOU 4.9	KC 42c / HOU 58c	HOU	HOU	agrees
BOS vs TEX	BOS 4.3 — TEX 3.9	BOS 53c / TEX 48c	BOS	BOS	agrees
PHI vs NYM	PHI 4.2 — NYM 4.4	PHI 46c / NYM 54c	NYM	NYM	agrees
MIN vs LAA	MIN 3.9 — LAA 3.8	MIN 50c / LAA 50c	MIN	MIN	agrees

A disagrees row is not a pick to hammer; it is the day's most interesting question. Sometimes the market knows something the lineup sheet does not, a scratch, a bullpen day, weather. Sometimes the Sims see a matchup the price has not caught up to. The graded ledger settles who was right, one row per day.

Today's Top Home Run Gaps

This is the sharper edge of the page, because here the Sims produce exactly the number the contract asks about: the probability that a specific hitter goes deep today. Kalshi's 1+ home run contracts price the same event in cents. The five biggest gaps, in either direction:

Fetched September 17, 2026 at 3:21 PM ET.

Hitter	Team	Sims HR%	Kalshi 1+ HR Mid	Gap
Miguel Vargas	CWS vs DET	10.1%	18.5c	-8.4
Roman Anthony	BOS vs TEX	7.5%	13.5c	-6.0
Joc Pederson	TEX vs BOS	14.7%	18.5c	-3.8
Bo Bichette	NYM vs PHI	14.0%	10.5c	+3.5
Salvador Perez	KC vs HOU	19.7%	16.5c	+3.2

A positive gap means the Sims like the homer more than the market does; a negative gap means the market is paying for a home run the Sims do not project at that rate. The full board of every Kalshi-listed hitter runs every day alongside this page.

The Record, In Public

Graded to date: 40 of 155 published HR gaps settled the way the gap pointed. Every graded call lives on the Sims vs Kalshi ledger.

Why we grade in public: anyone can publish picks. The only way a projection-versus-market page means anything is if every published gap gets settled against the exchange's own result and stays on the record, the misses included. That is what the Sims vs Kalshi ledger is for.

How To Read A Kalshi Price

If exchange contracts are new to you: a yes contract at 40 cents pays $1.00 if the event happens, so the market is charging you like a 40% chance. Both sides trade, so 40c yes implies 60c no. The spread between bid and ask is the cost of crossing the book, usually a few cents on these markets, and it is the house edge that actually exists here. Our sister site's guide to how to bet sports on Kalshi covers the mechanics end to end.

Built From The Sims

Every number in the tables above comes from the Stokastic MLB Sims, the projection engine our DFS subscribers build lineups with: simulated at-bats against tonight's real starters, park and lineup context included, refreshed as lineups confirm. If you want the projections themselves, not just the gaps, the Sims are the product, and the daily MLB DFS picks page shows the same engine pointed at DraftKings slates.

More on this: Kalshi MLB Home Run Edge Board: Sims HR% Vs Market Price · The Sims Vs Kalshi Ledger: Every Call, Graded In Public · Eagles vs Commanders Odds: Kalshi's Two Boards Disagree · AFC North Odds: The Right Favorite At The Wrong Price · MLB Playoff Odds: Brewers At 99%, White Sox At 69% And Three Races Still Open