NFL MVP Odds 2026: The Panel Will Not Pay Allen's Price

Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi bids and asks before fees. The panel numbers are estimates from five AI seats that were given every Week 1 and Week 2 final and no prices.

Two weeks of football did one thing to this board: they made Josh Allen the favorite by a distance. Allen opened the season at 11 cents, one cent clear of Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. He is 27 bid, 28 ask this morning, and nobody else has a bid above 9. The five-seat panel, asked the same question without seeing a price, put Allen at 22, and its highest seat stopped at 23. That is the widest disagreement on the board in one direction. The widest in the other is Patrick Mahomes, 8 bid, 9 ask, whom every seat priced between 11 and 16. Below those two the board and the panel are a cent or two apart, with one exception the market does not offer at all: the panel puts 18 cents on the 33 names that carry no bid.

The Full Board

Forty-seven names carry a contract. Here are the fifteen with an ask above one cent, the panel's median where it priced the name, and the gap between the ask and the panel in cents. Records are through Week 2.

Every name with a bid is a quarterback. The asks on those fourteen add to 100 cents. In the September 5 edition of this page they added to 95, and Allen held 11 of it. He holds 28 now. Allen took 17 cents and the other thirteen gave back 12 between them.

The Three At The Top Are Three Different Arguments

Allen's case is the box score. Buffalo won 36-31 in Houston and 41-31 over Detroit, and Allen has 582 passing yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions on 40 of 60, the only clean line in the top five. The panel saw all of that and stopped at 22, with the five seats spread from 20 to 23, because a 2-0 team with the cleanest quarterback in the league is what a favorite looks like in September, and the vote is about December. Nobody is arguing about the player. The six cents between 28 and 22 is the premium for buying December before it is played, and the panel's number is the one worth trusting.

Burrow and Purdy share the second line at 9 bid, 10 ask, and they reached it from opposite directions. Purdy was 5 cents on September 5. San Francisco beat the Rams 27-7 and the Dolphins 35-13, and Purdy has completed 45 of 56 for 492 yards and five touchdowns. The panel's median is 10, dead on the ask. That is a price with no argument left in it. Burrow was 10 cents on September 5 and is 10 now, and the flat line hides the trade. The Bengals are 2-0, 33-27 over Tampa Bay and 20-6 in Houston, which is exactly what this page said his number needed. His own line is 461 yards and three touchdowns, the lightest of the top five, and the panel docked him to 7 for it. Cincinnati won the games, the market kept the price, and the seats want the production before they pay for the wins.

Mahomes is the name the panel would buy. Kansas City is 2-0, 31-10 over Denver and 33-30 over Indianapolis, and Mahomes has 566 yards and five touchdowns on 47 of 74, a line 16 yards short of Allen's. The market moved him from 7 to 8 bid, 9 ask. All five seats had him higher than 9: 11, 11, 13, 15 and 16. The September edition of this page called Mahomes the two-time winner the electorate had moved past. The panel's answer is that a 2-0 Chiefs team with a quarterback at 566 yards is the live second favorite, and the market is pricing him fifth. Four cents is the widest discount on the board, and it is the trade this edition points to.

The Middle Of The Board Is Where The Panel Puts Its Money

The panel's largest number after Allen is not a player. It is the field, the 33 contracts with no bid and a one-cent ask (two for Gibbs), and the median seat put 18 cents on it, inside a range of 10.5 to 20. That is the panel saying that one time in five the winner is somebody nobody is paying for yet, and the stat lines say who. Bryce Young has 648 yards and six touchdowns, and Carolina beat Atlanta 34-3 on Sunday. Jared Goff has 533 yards and six touchdowns. Kirk Cousins has six touchdowns for a 2-0 Raiders team. Drew Lock has four touchdowns and no interceptions for the 2-0 Seahawks. All four sit at a one-cent ask with no bid under them.

Inside the priced names, the panel leans the other way on two quarterbacks the market let slide. Jalen Hurts is 3 bid, 4 ask with the Eagles 2-0 and 467 yards and five touchdowns; the panel has him at 6. Matthew Stafford fell from 7 to 3 bid, 4 ask after the Rams split, and the panel has him at 5 on 482 yards and four touchdowns.

It discounts two names the market rewarded. Tyler Shough has 662 passing yards, more than any quarterback on the Week 3 schedule, and New Orleans beat Baltimore 24-17 on Sunday. The market took him from nothing to 4 bid, 5 ask. The panel median is 1.5 cents, and no seat went above 2, because the Saints are 1-1 and this award goes to a top seed. Drake Maye is 4 bid, 5 ask on 386 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions; the panel has him at 1 cent, the steepest discount on the board relative to the price.

What The Contract Actually Settles On

The rule is short, and it is worth reading before assuming anything about how this pays. From the Allen contract:

Rule: If Josh Allen wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Every other name has the identical rule with their own name in it. It is the AP award specifically, voted by a 50-person media panel, and it is the regular season award, so a great January does nothing. The listed close is February 12, 2028, well past NFL Honors, so the settlement date on the ticket is not the date the question gets answered. One more filter: the AP MVP has gone to a quarterback every year since Adrian Peterson in 2012, which is why the 17 non-quarterbacks on this board, Derrick Henry's 212 yards and four touchdowns included, sit at one or two cents with no bid.

The Two Weeks That Moved The Board

On September 5 this page counted two one-cent moves across fourteen names in a week. Two weeks of games moved twelve of them.

Allen went from 11 to 28, the only move that mattered. Herbert went from 9 to 2 after Chargers losses of 26-14 to Arizona and 26-14 to the Raiders. Jackson went from 10 to 8, and the panel agrees: Baltimore lost 24-17 at home to the Saints, and through two games Henry has four touchdowns on the ground to Jackson's two through the air. Purdy doubled. Caleb Williams went from 7 to 4 after Chicago scored 59 in Carolina and then 3 at home against Minnesota. Prescott went from 7 to 5 with six touchdown passes and a 1-1 Cowboys team. Stafford went from 7 to 4, Maye from 6 to 5, Love from 5 to 2, and Jayden Daniels from 4 to a one-cent ask with the Commanders 0-2. Shough, unpriced above 3 cents on September 5, is 5.

A bunched top four could not survive snaps that count. This page expected that. What it did not expect is that all of the separation would go to one name. The panel spreads it: Allen to 22, Mahomes to 13, Purdy to 10, and 18 cents held back for a field the market has priced at nothing.

What Happens Next

Every disagreement above gets a game this week. Kickoffs are Eastern.

Sunday, 1 p.m.: the Chargers at Buffalo puts Herbert, 0-2, on the same field as Allen at 28. A third clean Allen week holds the bid at 27; anything else is the first test of the six cents. Kansas City at Miami is Mahomes against an 0-2 Dolphins team, the spot where a 4-cent discount closes or widens. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh is Burrow's first road game, and the panel's 7 against the market's 10 turns on whether the passing line catches up to the record. New England at Jacksonville is Maye, 5 ask against a 1-cent panel, opposite Lawrence.

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.: Arizona at San Francisco. Purdy at 10 with the panel at 10 is the one price on the board nobody needs to argue about.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.: Baltimore at Dallas is Jackson and Prescott in one building, 8 and 5 cents, both 1-1. Las Vegas at New Orleans is Shough against Cousins, the two names at opposite ends of the panel's field call.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m.: the Rams at Denver. Stafford at 4 cents with the panel at 5, against Bo Nix, the cheap ticket of the September edition and a one-cent ask now.

Monday, 8:15 p.m.: Philadelphia at Chicago. Hurts at 4 cents with the panel at 6, on a 2-0 team, against a Bears defense that gave up 37 in Week 1 and 9 in Week 2.

The award is announced at NFL Honors the night before the Super Bowl, and the board will keep repricing every Sunday until then.

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