RJ Harvey Props: The Touchdown Is Overpriced

RJ Harvey has 62 priced prop lines for Thursday night against Seattle, and the one the market likes most is the one the Sims like least. He finds the end zone in 19.5% of 10,000 runs while Kalshi charges 26.3 cents for it, a gap of 6.8 against the buyer. The other side, Harvey does not score, is the best-priced contract he has.

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Both teams are 3-2. The Season Engine projects Seattle for 10.5 wins and Denver for 10.0, and the Sims give the Seahawks the game in 57.8% of runs against 58.7 cents on Kalshi. A game this close produces prop lines that are hard to beat, and that shows up across the whole board.

RJ Harvey Props: Rushing Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Harvey game in these simulations is 14; the average is 17.4 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 3 to 36, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 126. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Harvey Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

The rushing ladder is quieter. Twenty yards is 34.2% in the Sims against 35.9 cents, 30 is 16.9 against 18.4, 40 is 8.0 against 9.6. Each rung is a cent or two dear, which is ordinary. His median night is 14 rushing yards and the middle 80% runs from 3 to 36, so this is a back the simulations do not give a workload to, which is the same thing the touchdown number is saying.

RJ Harvey Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. 20+ rushing yards and 4+ receptions land together in 1,668 of the 10,000 runs, which is 16.7%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 19.6%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs against the buyer here: the two legs crowd each other, so the pair lands less often than two independent prices suggest. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

RJ Harvey Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 19.5% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 26.3 cents, a gap of -6.8.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

One line clears two cents and it is a fade. The market is pricing a goal-line role the Sims do not give him.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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