Seahawks vs. Broncos Props: Smith-Njigba TD at +110

Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score is my bet for Thursday night: +110 at DraftKings and FanDuel, 48.7¢ on Kalshi and 50.7¢ on Polymarket, and he scores in 52.3% of our Sims.

He has seven touchdowns in five games and has scored in four of them. Denver won Sunday without cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, and ESPN still lists both as out.

I got that answer by asking our Sims, the same way you can for free. Type any question about this game, or any NFL game this week, and the Sims answer from 10,000 runs of it with the price beside the answer:

The game is open in all four simulators: Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings and FanDuel. Here's what I asked and what I'm betting.

The Sims are 10,000 runs of the game made Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 3:59 a.m. CT. Prices were read Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 7:19 a.m. CT. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and inactives post at 6:45 p.m. ET.

Does Smith-Njigba Score Again?

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The Sims say yes, barely. He has 100 receiving yards in four of five games, and Darnold and Drew Lock have both found him in the end zone.

The Sims give him about seven catches for 98 yards and roughly 30% of Seattle's touchdowns. He scores in 59% of the Sims Seattle wins and still 43% of the ones it loses, so this isn't a Seattle bet in disguise.

I'd bet it to -110 at DraftKings or FanDuel, or buy YES up to 52¢ on Kalshi or Polymarket. Same bet in four places, so take the best number.

Does Seattle Win by More Than a Field Goal?

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Ask the Sims who wins and Seattle comes back at 57.0%. The Seahawks trade at 61.7¢ on Kalshi, and that's more than I'll pay.

I'd rather bet the margin. Most of Seattle's wins in the Sims come by 4 or more, and that bet trades at 44.7¢ on Polymarket.

It's still close to a coin flip. Three of Seattle's five games were decided by three points or fewer, including Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. I'd buy YES up to 47¢ and keep it a normal-sized bet.

Does Darnold Get to 20 Completions?

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Darnold hurt his hip on the opening drive of the opener, and Lock started Week 2. Darnold's three starts since have been all over the place: 31 completions at Washington, 13 against the Chargers, 18 against the 49ers.

The Sims land him at about 19 completions on 31 throws, so 20+ is close to 50-50. At plus money, I'll take the over, at +102 or better.

Kalshi's 19+ line looks like a bigger edge, but the answer card won't grade it: the Sims and Kalshi's mid price are more than 10 points apart, and a gap that wide usually means the market knows something. I'll take the DraftKings number.

Does Denver Find the End Zone?

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Denver has topped 23 points once this year, and Sean Payton took the play-calling back last week. Jaylen Waddle leads the team in targets and has one touchdown to show for it.

The Sims give him about seven targets and have him scoring more often than +260 at FanDuel says. It's a small bet, and I'd take it to +238.

One Denver number I'm leaving alone is Bo Nix's rushing. The Sims give him about 17 rushing yards a game, and he has 35 all season. When the Sims and a player's season are that far apart, I don't bet his number.

The Combo: JSN Scores, Darnold Throws Two

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Pair the lead bet with Darnold throwing two touchdown passes and both land in 35.2% of the Sims (+184). They're tied together: in the Sims, almost every Smith-Njigba touchdown is a Darnold touchdown pass.

The answer card expects a Kalshi quote around 28.6¢. Build it on Kalshi and take any quote under 35¢.

The bigger ticket is Smith-Njigba scoring, going over 100 yards and Seattle winning: 20.1% of the Sims (+398), and DraftKings quotes it at +425. Build it in the DraftKings simulator.

The Bets

• Smith-Njigba anytime TD at +110 (DraftKings, FanDuel), 48.7¢ (Kalshi) or 50.7¢ (Polymarket). Seven touchdowns in five games, and both Denver corners are listed out again.
• Buy YES on Seahawks win by 4+ at 44.7¢ on Polymarket. The moneyline costs too much. The margin doesn't.
• Darnold 20+ completions at +119 on DraftKings. Close to 50-50 in the Sims, and you're getting plus money.
• Small: Waddle anytime TD at +260 on FanDuel. Denver's top target with one score.
• Smallest: Smith-Njigba TD and Darnold 2+ TD passes on Kalshi, any quote under 35¢. Two bets that win together.

Ask The Sims also answers during the game. In London on Sunday, a reader asked in the 1st quarter whether Parker Washington would finish with 6+ catches, 2+ touchdowns and 100+ yards. The live Sims said 19.2% (+422), and he finished with 6 catches, 124 yards and two scores.

Want to know how many carries Emanuel Wilson gets with Jadarian Price on injured reserve, or whether Nix gets loose against this defense? Ask The Sims about Seahawks vs. Broncos before kickoff on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings or FanDuel. It's free, and every NFL game this week is in there.