NFL Comeback Player Of The Year Odds 2026
By Jake Hari
September 5, 2026
Kalshi prices as of Saturday, September 5, 2026, 3:47 PM ET.
The Quick Answer
Patrick Mahomes is the price to beat at 34 cents on Kalshi's Comeback Player of the Year board, and Kyler Murray at 15 is the only other name in double digits. That gap makes the favorite worth more than the next two candidates on the board combined. Mahomes has been fading all week, though, off a 40-cent close last Friday and down another cent on the day. The volume is nowhere near him: Jonathon Brooks, priced at 2 cents, was the single busiest name on the board over the last 24 hours at 5,749 contracts.
The Odds Board
| Player | Chance now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 34% | 35% | -1 |
| Kyler Murray | 15% | 15% | flat |
| Aaron Donald | 7% | 8% | -1 |
| Daniel Jones | 7% | 7% | flat |
| Tucker Kraft | 6% | 6% | flat |
| Malik Nabers | 6% | 7% | -1 |
| Micah Parsons | 4% | 4% | flat |
| George Kittle | 3% | 3% | flat |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 3% | 2% | +1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3% | 3% | flat |
| Nick Bosa | 2% | 2% | flat |
| Travis Hunter | 2% | 2% | flat |
| Fred Warner | 2% | 2% | flat |
| Jonathon Brooks | 2% | 2% | flat |
Three more names are priced at 1 cent or less and are left off.
Who Moved, And Who Did Not
Mahomes has the widest seven-day range on the board, 33 to 40. He closed at 40 on Friday 8/28, ground down to 35 by Sunday, climbed back to 38 on Wednesday, then dropped to 33 on Thursday. He is at 34 now. That is a quarterback price behaving like a quarterback price in early September, with nothing settled.
Aaron Donald is the chop. The defensive tackle went 6 on Sunday, 9 on Monday, back to 6 on Tuesday, 9 again Wednesday, 8 through Thursday and Friday, and 7 now. Bleacher Report covered what his return means for the Rams on 30 Aug 2026, and Sports Illustrated wrote on 01 Sep 2026 that he was rising in this exact Kalshi market. LegalSportsReport pushed the other way on 02 Sep 2026, arguing he holds the third-best odds for an award he should not win.
Tucker Kraft is the quiet one. The tight end closed at 4 cents six days running, then printed 6 on Thursday and has held it. He is the only name in the top six sitting higher than he was a week ago. Kyler Murray, by contrast, never left 14 to 16 all week.
What The Shape Of The Board Says
The 14 names priced at 2 cents or more add up to 96 cents. Mahomes and Murray are 49 of those, right around 50% of everything priced, which is my arithmetic on the table above rather than a Kalshi number. Everything else is nine names crammed between 2 and 7 cents. There is no real second favorite here, just a favorite and a pile.
The position data says the same thing. Open interest is about 662,588 contracts against roughly 753,142 traded since the market opened. That is a board where most of what has been bought is still being held, not flipped. The 34,016 contracts traded in the last 24 hours went mostly to three names: Brooks at 5,749, Murray at 5,394, and Michael Penix Jr. at 5,123.
What I Am Watching
Kraft's two-cent move is the one I keep coming back to, because it happened without a return storyline attached the way Donald's price moves have. Donald's number is the one that will swing hardest on early snap counts, and a 6-to-9-cent range in a single week tells you how little agreement there is on him.
At the bottom, understand what you are buying. A one-cent tick on a 2-cent contract is an enormous move in percentage terms, and that is where the day's volume went. This contract also does not close until Feb. 21, 2028, so anything you put on now is money parked through a full season and the award vote after it.
About The Numbers
Every price here comes from Kalshi's Comeback Player of the Year Winner market, an exchange where each name trades as its own yes/no contract. A price of 34 cents reads as about a 34% chance of that outcome, and the contract pays a dollar if it hits. Settlement is name-by-name and verbatim: "If Patrick Mahomes wins the Pro Football AP Comeback Player of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Every other candidate carries the same rule with their own name in it. The chance column can add past 100 because each of those 17 contracts is priced separately, with its own spread and its own rounding to the nearest cent, so nothing forces them to sum cleanly.