NFL Offensive Player of the Year 2026 Odds: AI Panel Verdict on the Field
By Jake Hari
August 5, 2026
Offensive Player of the Year is the production award: quarterbacks win MVP, and this trophy goes to whoever posts the loudest counting-stat line. Kalshi's OPOY board runs 54 contracts deep with about 385,000 traded, and the market's top is a two-back argument, Jahmyr Gibbs at 12.5 cents and Bijan Robinson at 12, with a cliff to Ja'Marr Chase at 8.5. We handed the whole field to an eight-model AI panel, price-blind, with every active contract's verified team, position, and full 2025 stat line fetched the same morning, plus the award's complete AP winner ledger back to 2000. Then each seat read the others' anonymized reasoning and could revise. The panel agrees this is a volume award and disagrees with almost everything else: it cuts the market's favorite to fifth, flattens the top into a seven-name pack, and finds its best prices at three and a half cents.
The Quick Answer
Eight price-blind AI models make 2026 OPOY a wide-open, seven-name race with nobody above 8%: Bijan Robinson leads at a 7.7% blend against his 12-cent price, with Puka Nacua (7.3%) and Ja'Marr Chase (7.2%) essentially even behind him. The market's favorite is the panel's clearest fade: Jahmyr Gibbs at 12.5 cents against a 5.2% blend, priced for a Detroit volume story the models split across two Lions. The value runs cheap: James Cook III and Jonathan Taylor, 3.5 cents each against 5.1% blends, defending the exact profile, a rushing crown on a contender, that has won this award repeatedly. And the fetched ledger's headline rule: seven straight winners have been running backs or receivers, with no quarterback since Patrick Mahomes in 2018. The full board, every seat's number, and the one 2025 result that settles the QB question are below.
New to event markets? How to bet NFL on Kalshi covers the mechanics; this page is the OPOY layer.
The Market
Kalshi's board (KXNFLOPOTY-27) settles on one rule, quoted from the contracts: "If [player] wins the Pro Football AP Offensive Player of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Fifty-four players are listed, with a listed expiration of March 10, 2027 and early close when the award is announced at NFL Honors. The panel priced the 37 actively-quoted contracts individually, plus one bucket for the 16 half-cent tail names and a field entry for an unlisted winner. The 54 midpoints sum to roughly 117 cents, mild inflation by award-board standards; prices still compare to each other, not to 100.
Two timestamps: panel verdicts were generated the morning of August 3, 2026, price-blind; prices were fetched from the exchange at 12:28 UTC the same day. Prices on this page refresh on our standard market-pulse cycle, with the "as of" stamp as the evidence.
What The Fetched Record Says
The AP winner ledger 2000-2025 defines the award's physics. The last seven winners, Michael Thomas, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, were all skill players who led or nearly led the league in a headline volume category, most on playoff teams. The last quarterback winner was Mahomes in 2018; the ledger's other QB winners (both Mannings, Brady twice, Brees twice, Newton, Ryan) all won in monster statistical seasons. Voters route quarterback greatness to MVP and give this award to the loudest yardage line.
The 2025 columns supply this year's cases. Robinson compiled 2,298 scrimmage yards (1,478 rushing, 820 receiving) at age 24. Nacua caught 129 balls for 1,715 on a 12-5 Rams team. Chase went 125 for 1,412 on a team whose quarterback made eight starts. Smith-Njigba won the 2025 award on 1,793 receiving yards, Cook won the rushing title at 1,621 for 12-5 Buffalo, Taylor scored 18 rushing touchdowns on 1,585 yards, and Gibbs went 1,223 rushing plus 616 receiving with a teammate, Amon-Ra St. Brown, drawing 172 targets in the same huddle.
How The Panel Read It
All eight seats opened from the same ledger rule, stated cleanest by Claude Opus:
"The ledger is decisive — seven straight skill-position winners, each owning a headline yardage or TD crown, with QB greatness routed to MVP." (Claude Opus)
From there the panel built the race around what it called crown paths, the specific league-leading line each candidate can plausibly post. The favorite's case is the scrimmage crown:
"Bijan Robinson tops my board at 8%: 2,298 scrimmage yards at age 24 is the cleanest McCaffrey-2023 template, and Atlanta's offense should improve." (GLM 5.2)
The most conditional case on the board belongs to Cincinnati:
"Chase's 125/1,412 in only eight Burrow starts is the loudest conditional fact on the card." (Kimi K3)
And the panel's answer to the QB question came off the card itself rather than theory:
"The card itself settles the QB question: Allen's 39-total-TD, 12-5 season lost to JSN's 1,793 yards in 2025, so a QB needs a ~50-TD historic outlier." (Kimi K3)
The Revision Round
Each seat then read the other seven's anonymized reasoning and could revise. Cross-model disagreement fell from 0.83 to 0.33 points per outcome, and the round sharpened two arguments without flipping the board. Chase gained the most ground, DeepSeek moving him to the top of its revised board on the healthy-Burrow rebound case, while the Gibbs fade hardened around a card fact several seats cited in round two:
"Forecaster G's point that Buffalo's goal-line work belongs to Allen (14 rush TD) is a real ceiling on James Cook despite his league-best 1,621 rushing yards." (Claude Opus, on the argument that also caps Cook a tier below the top)
The result is the flattest top tier in this series, and the panel's stated reason is honest: in August, five or six different volume crowns are equally plausible, and the award follows whichever one lands.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: The Scrimmage Crown Template
Market 12 cents, panel 7.7% and first or tied for first on seven of eight revised boards. The case writes itself off the card: 2,298 scrimmage yards at 24 is the largest volume line in football, and the two most recent RB winners (McCaffrey 2023, Barkley 2024) won on exactly this dual-threat shape. What the panel will not do is pay the market's premium over the pack, because Atlanta's 8-9 record cuts against the ledger's playoff-team pattern, and because this award chases the loudest single line, which in any given year can come from six other players. Same player, two boards: the panel also makes him co-favorite for the rushing yards title, and the two prices should move together.
Puka Nacua And Ja'Marr Chase: The Receiving-Crown Pair
Nacua (7.5¢, blend 7.3%) is the panel's cleanest receiving case: 129 catches for 1,715 on a winning team, the exact profile that took the award in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2025. Chase (8.5¢, blend 7.2%) is the upside case: 1,412 yards with his quarterback mostly absent, and the panel's models repeatedly named a healthy-Burrow Chase season as the single largest plausible yardage jump on the board. The pair traded places across seats all morning; the blend calls it a tie, and both sit within a point of the market's honest price for them. The deeper receiving argument, including why the panel respects but discounts a Smith-Njigba repeat (4.5¢, 5.7%, the reigning winner), lives on the receiving yards leader board.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: The Favorite The Panel Won't Pay For
Market 12.5 cents, panel 5.2%, fifth on the blend, the largest fade on the board. The market's case is real: Gibbs scored 18 total touchdowns in 2025 and inherits a bigger backfield share with David Montgomery's fetched move to Houston. The panel's counter is arithmetic, not talent: his 1,223 rushing yards ranked well behind the volume leaders, his own teammate St. Brown (2.5¢, 3.6%) competes for the same offense's headline line, and a touchdown-driven case is more voter-fragile than a yardage crown. Every seat priced Gibbs; none put him higher than 6.5%. A 12.5-cent favorite the models price at five is this board's version of the fame tax.
The Rushing-Crown Value: Cook And Taylor At A Fraction
James Cook III (3.5¢, blend 5.1%) and Jonathan Taylor (3.5¢, blend 5.1%) are the panel's clearest prices in the reader's favor: both above their market number, both defending the exact profile, a rushing title on a good team, that won this award in 2020 (Henry) and nearly every time a back has taken it. Cook's 2025 rushing crown for 12-5 Buffalo is the ledger's template with one asterisk (Josh Allen's 14 rushing touchdowns take the goal line), and Taylor's 18-touchdown, 1,585-yard season needs only a repeat plus a Colts winning record. Christian McCaffrey (5¢, 4.4%) rounds out the tier, priced down for age 30 and a prior win.
The Quarterback Block: Cheap For A Reason, Maybe Too Cheap
The market prices every quarterback on the board at half a cent. The panel's combined QB block lands near 11%, with Josh Allen (0.5¢, blend 2.7%) more than five times his price as the only quarterback whose rushing-touchdown profile gives him a non-MVP-shaped case. The panel is not predicting a QB winner; it is pricing the tail correctly: the fetched ledger shows nine QB wins between 2004 and 2018, every one a monster statistical season, and a 39-total-touchdown Allen season just lost this award to a receiver in 2025. Half a cent understates a roughly 1-in-9 block, and the panel's field-plus-tail numbers (6.6% for the 16 unlisted-by-the-panel tail names, 2.4% for an unlisted winner) say the same thing about the board's long edges.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
- De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (2.5¢, blend 3.3%): 1,350 rushing yards at 5.7 per carry plus 67 catches; the efficiency outlier whose volume ceiling is the only question.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (2.5¢, blend 3.6%): 172 targets is the second-largest funnel in football, and he outblends his own higher-priced teammate.
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (0.5¢, blend 2.7%): the QB-block argument above, at the board's minimum price.
- A.J. Brown, New England Patriots (3.5¢, blend 2.4%): the fetched roster column's surprise, now the alpha target on a 14-3 team; DeepSeek's 5% led the panel.
The Board
Top of the board, with the panel's bucket numbers beneath. The panel also priced the 16 thin tail names as one 6.6% group and an unlisted winner at 2.4%.
| Player | 2025 season | Kalshi | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB) | 2,298 scrimmage yds | 12¢ | 7.7% |
| Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) | 129 rec · 1,715 yds | 7.5¢ | 7.3% |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, WR) | 1,412 yds; Burrow played 8 gms | 8.5¢ | 7.2% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) | 1,793 yds · won 2025 OPOY | 4.5¢ | 5.7% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) | 1,839 scrimmage · 18 TD | 12.5¢ | 5.2% |
| James Cook III (BUF, RB) | 1,621 yds · rushing title | 3.5¢ | 5.1% |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB) | 1,585 yds · 18 rush TD | 3.5¢ | 5.1% |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF, RB) | 2,126 scrimmage yds | 5¢ | 4.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, WR) | 1,401 yds · 172 tgt | 2.5¢ | 3.6% |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN, WR) | 1,048 yds · 141 tgt | 5.5¢ | 3.3% |
| De'Von Achane (MIA, RB) | 1,838 scrimmage yds | 2.5¢ | 3.3% |
| Josh Allen (BUF, QB) | 25 pass TD · 14 rush TD | 0.5¢ | 2.7% |
| Derrick Henry (BAL, RB) | 1,595 yds · age 32 | 3.5¢ | 2.6% |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR) | 1,077 yds | 4.5¢ | 2.5% |
| A.J. Brown (NE, WR) | 1,003 yds · now a Patriot | 3.5¢ | 2.4% |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB) | 1,140 yds · won 2024 OPOY | 4¢ | 2.2% |
| Malik Nabers (NYG, WR) | 4 games in 2025 | 3.5¢ | 0.9% |
| Brock Bowers (LV, TE) | 680 yds in 12 games | 3¢ | 0.8% |
| 16-name thin tail (bucket) | — | 0.5¢ each | 6.6% |
| Any unlisted winner (the field) | — | no contract | 2.4% |
Every Seat's Round-1 Number
The per-model split before the revision round, top of the board only. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers, which average all eight seats' revised estimates.
| Player | ChatGPT | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 |
| Puka Nacua | 9.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6.2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| James Cook III | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Josh Allen | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 3, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the real NFL Honors announcement on the public model verdict scoreboard.
What Reprices This Board
OPOY prices track the volume leaderboards, so the knowable movers are the same ones driving the stat-title boards: August backfield news in Detroit and Atlanta, Joe Burrow's health (the direct input under Chase), and the season's first month of touch counts. One structural note for traders: this board moves in sympathy with the rushing and receiving leader markets, and a divergence between a player's OPOY price and his stat-title price, like Gibbs trading as OPOY favorite while sitting fourth on the rushing board, is itself information about what the market is paying for. This page carries its fetch date for exactly that reason.
OPOY Odds Vs Your Fantasy Draft
OPOY is the closest thing the award calendar has to a fantasy-relevance index: it goes to exactly the volume profiles fantasy managers draft in the first round. The panel's flat seven-name top maps cleanly onto early-first-round ADP, and its divergences are draft-table arguments: a Gibbs price built on touchdown equity, a Cook number capped by his own quarterback's goal-line role, and a Chase season leveraged to Burrow's availability. The full award-market map is the Kalshi NFL awards hub, the market-reading workflow is the fantasy football prediction markets hub, and for weekly volume data against live lines in-season, Stokastic Prop Tools runs it every slate.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook.
- Liquidity. About 385,000 contracts across 54 names, one of the deeper NFL award books; tails still quote at half a cent with wide spreads. Midpoints sum to roughly 117 cents; compare prices to each other.
- Time. Listed expiration March 10, 2027, with early close at the announcement; capital is committed for the season.
- **Not advice.
The Bottom Line
The market has priced a two-back race; the panel has priced a seven-crown lottery. Its board says Robinson deserves the pole at a smaller premium, Nacua and Chase belong level with him, the reigning champion is live at a third of the favorite's price, and the market's actual favorite is carrying five cents of fame. Where the panel spends its own conviction is at the cheap end: two rushing-title profiles at three and a half cents and a quarterback block the board sells for pennies. When NFL Honors settles it in February, every number above gets graded in public, on the same scoreboard as this panel's NFL MVP board and the rest of the verdict lane.
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Verdicts generated August 3, 2026, price-blind. Prices as of August 3, 2026, 12:28 UTC. Panel: ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM 5.2, Kimi K3, and DeepSeek V4, all eight revised in an anonymized cross-read; the blend is the simple mean of the eight revised estimates.
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