MLB DFS Live Before Lock: Picks & Lineups (Mon 6/29)

Monday's MLB DFS main slate runs 13 games, it is a weather story across several parks, and one game stands above the rest while the chalk at pitcher is begging to be leveraged. Here is how today's Live Before Lock read the DraftKings and FanDuel boards, with our Stokastic Sims numbers behind every call.

In Summary

• The Slate: a 13-game MLB main slate with weather in play at multiple parks.
• Top Pitcher: George Kirby (SEA) is the SP1, a right-hander against an Angels lineup that strikes out at a top-of-the-league clip.
• Best Leverage: Robert Gasser (MIL) graded as the highest simulated-ROI pitcher on the board and is drawing a fraction of Kirby's ownership. Pairing them is the cheap SP combo.
• The Stack Spot: Padres at Cubs at Wrigley, wind blowing out, is the one premium game environment. Build most of your lineups around it.
• Cheap Contrarian Stack: the Minnesota Twins with Byron Buxton (MIN) out of the lineup, against an arm nobody wants to roster.
• Fade: Peter Lambert (HOU) graded as the second-worst simulated pitcher ROI on the slate.

Watch: MLB DFS Live Before Lock (6/29)

Eric Lindquist built the full DraftKings and FanDuel slate live before lock, running the Stokastic Sims on screen the whole way. Watch the entire breakdown, then read the Sims-backed plays below.

Watch on YouTube

Today's Pitching: Kirby Leads, Gasser Is The Leverage

George Kirby (SEA) is where we start every build today. He is right-handed and facing the Angels, and that combination is exactly what you want for tournaments. The Angels carry strikeout-prone bats up and down the order, so Kirby's strikeout floor is real even in a park that has played up for lefty power. He carries the most ownership on the board near 25%, but our Sims still had him as the top arm by a clear margin, so we are not fading him just because the field is on him. If you also bet baseball, you can shop his number on the MLB strikeout props at OddsShopper.

The real build move is leveraging off that chalk. Robert Gasser (MIL) was the single highest simulated-ROI pitcher of the day at $6,700, and the ownership gap is the whole point: on FanDuel he sat near 2% projected while Kirby was near 25%. Gasser is left-handed against a Reds lineup where strikeouts are available, and at $500 less than Kirby on DraftKings he frees up salary for bats. Pairing Kirby and Gasser is the cheap, high-leverage SP1/SP2 the Sims kept landing on.

Among the cautious-but-usable arms, Casey Mize (DET) at $7,700 limits lefty power well even in the terrifying spot at Yankee Stadium, and the Tigers sit as live underdogs. At the bottom of the build, Eric Lauer (LAD) at $5,200 is a salary-saver against the Athletics. Nobody feels great about it, but if you want to spend up for the Wrigley bats, a punt arm gets you there.

The one expensive pitcher to avoid is Peter Lambert (HOU) at $8,400. He graded as the second-worst simulated pitcher ROI on the slate, and he is already pulling ownership at a price that does not justify it. That sets up one of the better contrarian stacks on the board.

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The Stack Spot: Padres At Cubs, Wrigley Wind Blowing Out

The whole slate funnels into one game: the Padres at the Cubs at Wrigley with the wind blowing out and Shota Imanaga (CHC), a fly-ball pitcher, on the mound. Even with San Diego carrying a pedestrian team-wide line, individual bats are mispriced for how this park is going to play in these conditions. We want San Diego and Chicago bats in the majority of our tournament lineups, and the show was on roughly 70% of builds touching this game.

On the Padres side, Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) is the centerpiece. He was up near 68% projected ownership on FanDuel, so cap him around 50% rather than running him everywhere, and lean on his multi-position eligibility as roster glue. Round out the stack with Manny Machado (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).

On the Cubs side, Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the nuclear play and arguably underpriced for the environment. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) and Michael Busch (CHC) are the other core bats, and a buried Dansby Swanson (CHC) carries quiet two-homer upside on a day the ball should travel. For every stack ranked by implied total, check today's MLB DFS Top Stacks and Pitchers.

Bargain Bats: Esteury Ruiz And A Cheap PCA

Two values stand out for fitting the expensive Wrigley bats into your build:

• Esteury Ruiz (SD) · $3,600 — moved up to the three-hole, a strong source of cash-game value at a near-minimum price.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) · $6,300 — the rare case where one of the best plays on the slate is also priced like a value, given the park.

The Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins

The cheap, low-owned pivot is the Minnesota Twins against Peter Lambert (HOU). Minnesota took its best hitter out with Byron Buxton (MIN) sitting, which only cheapens the rest of the bats. Brooks Lee (MIN) is one name to build the stack around. With Lambert overpriced and the Twins sitting neutral against right-handed pitching, this is the kind of low-ownership stack that can pay off in GPPs once the Wrigley chalk gets over-rostered.

Tournament One-Offs

A couple of single plays to sprinkle in for leverage:

• Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — looked nuclear in the Sims today, a top one-off for tournaments.
• Ketel Marte (ARI) — the way to access the Diamondbacks at Giants game, another spot worth a little tournament exposure.

A Sample Build We Keep Landing On

Here is the lineup shape we keep coming back to today. We start George Kirby and Robert Gasser on the mound, the cheapest way to roster two arms we trust, and that pairing alone hands us leverage on a field that is piling onto Kirby. From there we spend up on the Padres-Cubs game at Wrigley with a five-man stack built around Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs side or Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Padres side, then use Esteury Ruiz as the value piece that makes the salary work. To separate in tournaments, we swap the fifth bat for a Twins hitter such as Brooks Lee or a one-off like Yordan Alvarez or Ketel Marte.

That is the entire slate in one lineup: cheap leverage at pitcher, the one great game stacked five deep, and a low-owned pivot that gets us off the chalk. We let the Sims confirm the exposure rather than locking any single build by hand.

How To Build It: Five-Man Stacks And The Sims

The structural takeaway from today's show is simple: five-man stacks remain the optimal way to build MLB DFS lineups, and most of the field still does not get to enough of them. Rather than forcing a comfortable four-man plus three-man, lean into the one elite game environment and let the Stokastic MLB Sims build the correlated stacks for you.

The show ran the single-lineup simulator with the randomness slider bumped to 5% to reshape the one-offs and compare a second structure, then used the post-contest Sims to confirm the five-man stack exposure. The daily Perfect Lineup from the Stokastic crew opened with both George Kirby and Robert Gasser, which lines up with everything above. For the full board ranked by projection and projected ownership, see today's MLB DFS picks and projections.

The Bottom Line

Kirby is the SP1, Gasser is the leverage that makes the build affordable, and the Padres-Cubs game at Wrigley is where most of your bats should live. Stack five, leverage the chalk, and let the Sims do the heavy lifting.

⚾ Get the full MLB Sims slate. Stokastic Sims gives you every projection, projected ownership, simulated ROI, and the optimizer that builds DraftKings and FanDuel lineups in seconds. Code MLBLBL takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.

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FAQ

Who is the top pitcher in today's MLB DFS slate? George Kirby (SEA) is the SP1. A right-hander against an Angels lineup that strikes out at one of the highest rates in baseball, Kirby graded as the top arm on the board by a clear margin in the Stokastic Sims.

Who is the best value pitcher today? Robert Gasser (MIL) at $6,700 on DraftKings. He graded as the highest simulated-ROI pitcher of the day and is drawing a fraction of Kirby's ownership, which makes the Kirby-Gasser pairing the cheap, high-leverage way to fill both pitcher spots.

Which team stack is the best play today? The Padres at Cubs game at Wrigley, with the wind blowing out and fly-ball pitcher Shota Imanaga (CHC) on the mound. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) headline a stack spot that belongs in most of your lineups.

Which contrarian stack offers the most leverage today? The Minnesota Twins against Peter Lambert (HOU). With Byron Buxton (MIN) out and Lambert priced at $8,400 despite a bottom-of-the-board simulated ROI, the Twins are a cheap, low-owned pivot off the Wrigley chalk.