NFL DFS Strategy: A Quick Start Guide to Winning Lineups

NFL DFS is where the biggest prizes and the biggest glory live in daily fantasy. Any given Sunday you can throw $20 into a milly-maker and walk out with life-changing money. I'm Alex "Awesemo" Baker, the former No. 1 overall ranked DFS player, and this is the framework I use to attack NFL daily fantasy. It's the same approach I built into Awesemo.com (now Stokastic.com) so that anyone can play the way the top of the leaderboard plays.

Related reading: NFL DFS Showdown Strategy: Captain Picks That Win GPPs.

This is a strategy primer, not a today's-picks page. For this week's live NFL projections and ownership, head to the Stokastic NFL DataHub. Here I want to teach you the why behind a winning lineup so you can read any slate yourself.

In Summary (TL;DR)

• Projection is your floor. Build lineups near the optimal projected score, then use ownership and correlation to separate from the field.
• Ownership wins GPPs. Aim just outside the highest-owned builds. Mix in one lower-owned player you like for roughly every two popular plays.
• Stack your quarterback. Pairing your QB with at least two of his pass catchers raises your ceiling because their scoring is correlated by design.
• Simulate for tournaments. For GPPs, Stokastic's NFL Contest Sims run the actual contest tens of thousands of times so you optimize for win probability, not one projected number. (For cash, build for floor, see below.)
• Cash and GPPs need opposite builds. High floor for double-ups, high ceiling and leverage for tournaments. Never run the same lineup in both.

NFL DFS Projections: Build Around the Optimal

Everyone is trying to figure out which players are most likely to succeed on an NFL Sunday. In most cases you're only gaining a point or two of value on any single player, but stacked across a full lineup that small edge compounds into a real advantage over the field.

Here's the practical rule I lean on. When I look at the spread of strong lineups on a main slate, the optimal projected score and the lineups within roughly 10 points of it tend to be where the value lives. So my safe starting point is to keep my build within about 10 points of the projected optimal. That keeps me anchored to genuinely strong players before I start making the leverage moves that actually win tournaments.

You don't have to compute any of that by hand. Stokastic's NFL projections in the DataHub give you the projected points and value for every player on the slate will pull the optimal projected lineup for you in seconds. That projected-optimal number is your reference point for everything that follows.

NFL DFS Ownership: Leverage Beats Chalk

We're all hunting for the sleeper that makes our week, but ownership is a tricky science: the most popular players on a slate are usually the most popular because they're the most likely to succeed. You can't just fade everyone.

The strategy I trust is to target a total ownership profile that sits just outside the very highest-owned lineups, roughly outside the top 5% most-owned builds. A good rule of thumb is mixing in one lower-owned player I genuinely like for every two chalky, popular plays. That blend gives you a real chance to cash and a real chance to separate from the field when your sleeper hits.

This is where leverage comes in. If 30% of the field is on the same star running back and a comparable back in a similar spot is sitting at 8% ownership, taking the lower-owned guy gets you over the field whenever they score similarly. Stokastic's ownership projections show you exactly where the field is concentrated so you can pick your leverage spots on purpose instead of guessing.

NFL DFS Stacking: Correlation Is the Foundation

Picking nine names out of a hat and getting all of them to hit their ceiling is unlikely. But you improve those odds enormously if you only need to get eight names right to win. That's what stacking buys you.

A quarterback's production is mechanically tied to his pass catchers: every passing yard and touchdown a pass-catcher produces also lands on the QB's stat line, so their fantasy scores rise together. So if you roster several pass catchers who share a quarterback, the QB hitting a score you'll be happy with becomes close to automatic whenever those receivers go off. You've turned nine independent bets into a few correlated ones.

What holds up in practice: stacking at least two pass catchers with your quarterback is, on average, a stronger tournament strategy than stacking just one, and honestly I don't even recognize a GPP lineup that has no stack at all. The QB-plus-two-receivers stack is the backbone of NFL DFS.

For more on this, see How I Won the NFL DFS Millionaire Maker for $1 Million.

There's also the bring-back, or run-back: pairing a player from the opposing team with your stack. The logic is that if the other team scores, there will be more passing volume on both sides, so a shootout lifts your whole game environment. In my testing the run-back results were genuinely inconclusive on whether it's a net edge, so I treat it as a slate-by-slate read rather than a hard rule. On a projected shootout I'll bring it back; on a projected grind I often won't.

Skip the trial-and-error. Instead of manually testing stack rules one at a time, Stokastic's NFL Contest Sims simulate the entire contest tens of thousands of times and build the correlation in for you, so you can see which stack constructions actually win. Use code STOK10 for 10% off your first Stokastic Sims payment: Get the NFL Sim Tools.

Cash Games vs. Tournaments: Opposite Builds

Before you build anything, decide what you're playing, because cash and GPPs reward opposite lineups.

• Cash games (50/50s, double-ups, head-to-heads) pay roughly the top half of the field. You want a high floor: safe, projection-driven players and very little exotic leverage. Beat half the field and you win.
• Tournaments / GPPs pay the top ~20% on a steep curve, with most of the money at the very top. Here ceiling, correlation, and ownership leverage matter more than floor. You need a lineup that can finish first.

The most common mistake new players make is firing their safe cash lineup into a giant GPP. It's well-balanced and chalky, which is great for a double-up and nearly useless in a 100,000-person tournament. Build them separately. For cash, lean on the highest-floor projected lineup from the Sims. For GPPs, run the Contest Sims to find the high-ceiling, correlated, leverage-aware builds.

How to Build an NFL DFS Lineup with Stokastic Tools

Here's the GPP workflow I run on a main slate, start to finish. (For cash, you stop at the projection and floor steps: build the highest-floor projected lineup and skip the leverage and simulation steps, which are tournament-only.)

1. Pull the projected optimal. Open the NFL DataHub and note the optimal projected score. Anything within ~10 points of it is in my pool.
2. Find a stack. Pick a high-implied-total offense and pair the quarterback with at least two of his pass catchers. Decide on the run-back based on whether the game projects as a shootout.
3. Check ownership. Pull up ownership projections and aim just outside the chalkiest builds. Swap one chalky piece for a lower-owned player I like for roughly every two popular plays.
4. Simulate it (GPPs). For tournaments, run the build through the NFL Contest Sims. The tool scans a simulated contest field (a ~10,000-entry field run tens of thousands of times) and reports win probability and simulated ROI per lineup, not one projected score, so I'm optimizing for the thing that actually pays. Here is why that changes your decisions: picture two lineups at the same projected total, identical except that one rosters a chalky, heavily-owned running back and the other swaps in a similar-projected back at a fraction of the ownership. An optimizer treats them as a tie. The Sims do not. Across the simulated outcomes where that game script hits, far fewer of your opponents are sitting on the lower-owned build, so it converts a much higher share of its winning slates into a top finish. The optimizer cannot see that; simulating the field is the only way it shows up. For cash, skip the Sims and lock in the highest-floor projected lineup from the Sims.
5. Late swap. Right up until lock, check for inactives and news, and remember you can only swap a player whose game has not yet kicked off. Here is the kind of spot that wins you money: ninety minutes before a late-afternoon game, a team's WR1 is ruled out, and his WR2's target share and ceiling just jumped. The field that drafted hours earlier is stuck. Because that game has not kicked off, Live Before Lock flags the news so you can swap a weak slot into that WR2 (or, if you already have him, hold him knowing most of the field cannot). That single update is the highest-value in-slate action you can take.

A quick note on variance: even the best pre-lock lineup can finish near the bottom on a bad-luck Sunday, and a fringe build can win it all. That's NFL DFS. Judge yourself on process over results, size your entries sensibly, and manage your bankroll so the inevitable cold streaks don't bury you.

Putting It All Together

Projection anchors you to good players. Ownership leverage separates you from the field. Stacking turns nine bets into a few correlated ones. And the Sim Tools tie it together by running the contest tens of thousands of times so you build for win probability instead of a single projected number. That's the whole game, and it's exactly the edge I set out to give every player when I started Awesemo.com (now Stokastic.com).

Ready to build like the No. 1 player? Get Stokastic NFL Sim Tools, Contest Sims, and live projections in one place. Use code STOK10 for 10% off your first payment: Start winning NFL DFS.

NFL DFS Strategy FAQ

What is the best NFL DFS strategy for beginners?

Start by building near the projected optimal lineup, then make two adjustments: stack your quarterback with at least two of his pass catchers, and mix in one lower-owned player you like for roughly every two popular plays. The Stokastic the Sims handles the heavy lifting on projections so you can focus on stacking and leverage.

How many players should I stack in NFL DFS?

For tournaments, stacking at least two pass catchers with your quarterback is, on average, stronger than stacking just one. A QB plus two receivers (and an optional bring-back from the opposing team in a projected shootout) is the standard NFL DFS stack.

Should I use a run-back (bring-back) in my NFL DFS stack?

Sometimes. The idea is that a high-scoring game produces passing volume on both sides. In testing, the run-back was inconclusive as a blanket rule, so I add it on projected shootouts and skip it on projected low-scoring grinds rather than forcing it every slate.

What's the difference between cash and GPP NFL DFS lineups?

Cash games reward a high floor, so use a safe, projection-driven lineup. GPPs reward ceiling and leverage, so embrace correlation, stacking, and lower-owned plays. Never run the same lineup in both. The Contest Sims are built for the GPP side, optimizing for win probability across a simulated tournament field.

Are Stokastic and Awesemo the same thing?

Yes. Awesemo.com rebranded to Stokastic.com. The projections, Sim Tools I built under the Awesemo name now live at Stokastic.com.

How do Stokastic NFL Sim Tools help me win?

The Contest Sims simulate the actual contest tens of thousands of times, factoring in correlation and the projected ownership of the field, then report win probability and simulated ROI for each lineup. That lets you optimize for the metric that actually pays instead of a single projected score. See plans on the Stokastic Sims pricing page.

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