MLB DFS Picks Today 7/6: Thin Arms, Dodgers Stack
July 6, 2026
In Summary
- The Slate: a 7-game Monday MLB board with a 6:40 PM ET first lock (two games at 6:40 and 6:45) and no elite pitching, so plan to make some concessions.
- Top Arms (Our Ranking): Kevin Gausman (TOR), then Cam Schlittler (NYY), then Landen Roupp (SF). Griffin Jax (TB) is the chalk; Eric Lauer (LAD) is the leverage value.
- Anchor Stack: the Los Angeles Dodgers (slate-high 5.4 implied total) against Kyle Freeland (COL). Leverage sits with Atlanta and Arizona.
- Build every lineup on the Stokastic MLB Sims. ⚾15% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBSTRATEGY⚾.
Watch The Video
This breakdown is built from today's Stokastic MLB Strategy show. Watch on YouTube for the full walkthrough of the Sims, exposures, and stacks in the host's own words.
Today's MLB DFS Slate: A Thin Pitching Board
Seven games, first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. If you build for a 7:05 lock, you will miss two games that have already started, so set your alarm early.
The honest read: this is not a good pitching slate. There is no bonafide ace and no great cheap arm, which means you are going to roster pitchers you are not thrilled about, and so is the rest of the field. That actually flattens the board. With nobody clearly worth paying up for, the Sims spread exposure out: a chunk of one pitcher paired with a chunk of a stack, rather than one dominant chalk build. Lean into that balance instead of forcing a single lineup shape. New to building on simulated outcomes? Our guide to using the MLB DFS Sims walks through the workflow.
One weather note before we dig in: the Washington Nationals versus Houston Astros game in DC is the only spot with real rain risk. San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, St. Louis, and Atlanta all grade out fine. We will cover how a Washington postponement reshuffles the stacks below.
🔓 Build these lineups the right way. Every projection, ownership number, and top-stacks board on this page comes from the Stokastic MLB Sims, thousands of simulations per slate that also build and optimize your lineups. Code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.
Top MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Rank the three highest-priced arms first. Our order is Gausman, Schlittler, Roupp. Here is the top of the board at a glance before we go pitcher by pitcher.
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Salary | K Prop | The read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | NYY | vs TB Rays | $11,000 | 6.5 (u) | Best raw arm, worst matchup |
| Landen Roupp | SF | vs TOR | $8,300 | 4.5 | Viable, not exciting |
| Griffin Jax | TB | vs NYY | $7,500 | 5.5 | The chalk (No. 1 owned) |
| Eric Lauer | LAD | vs COL | $6,000 | 4.5 | Leverage value (top Sim ROI) |
Kevin Gausman (TOR) sits in the top price tier at San Francisco; his exact salary was not called out on the show, but he is our No. 1 of the three.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) · at San Francisco Giants
The case:
- He pitches in Oracle Park, one of the best home-run-suppressing environments in the league.
- The Giants' low team strikeout rate is skewed. Five projected starters, including Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Heliot Ramos, sit at 23%-plus strikeout rates, while Jung Hoo Lee and a couple of low-strikeout bats drag the team number down.
- San Francisco has the second-lowest team total on the slate. Gausman carries a 5.5-strikeout prop and a heavily juiced outs prop.
- He has been inconsistent this season, so treat this as a process play, not a lock.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) · vs Tampa Bay Rays · $11,000
The case:
- He is the best raw arm on the board: highest strikeout rate, very low walk rate.
- The matchup is the catch. The Rays own the league's lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers at 18.6%, dead last, and it is not one or two hitters. The top of that lineup simply makes contact.
- At $2,000 more than the next pitcher, he is a necessary evil rather than a smash. His strikeout prop sits at 6.5, juiced to the under.
Landen Roupp (SF) · vs Toronto Blue Jays · $8,300
The case:
- Cheap and quality-enough to be viable, but nothing to get excited about. He is a clear third of the three, with a 4.5-strikeout prop.
The Chalk: Griffin Jax (TB)
Griffin Jax (TB) · vs New York Yankees · $7,500
The case:
- He ranks first in projected ownership, second in projected DraftKings points, second in top-pitcher probability, and second in value, despite only the sixth-highest price on the slate.
- The reason is the other dugout. The Yankees carry the lowest team total on the entire slate, a 25% strikeout rate over the last 30 days, and a 91 wRC+ (bottom-five over the last month), with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL and Jazz Chisholm Jr. banged up after a slide.
- We are heavily exposed here. If you want a different lineup, this is the obvious spot to under-roster the field.
The Leverage Value: Eric Lauer (LAD)
Eric Lauer (LAD) · vs Colorado Rockies · $6,000
The case:
- Lauer has the highest simulated player ROI of any pitcher on the slate in our Sims, yet only about 15% projected ownership. That gap is the leverage.
- The Dodgers are heavy money-line favorites with a slate-high 5.4 implied total at home, so the win equity is real.
- Colorado is brutal against left-handers: 29th in wRC+ versus LHP and the league's highest strikeout rate versus lefties, near 26% three-plus months into the season. Lauer's own strikeout stuff is poor, but a cheap lefty who can give you five or six innings and four strikeouts in a win is enough on a night like this. Think poor man's Nick Martinez.
Two cheap darts round it out: Walker Buehler (SD) draws an Arizona lineup that rarely whiffs but does not hit for much, so a four-strikeout game is on the table, and Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) against San Diego is a pure product of the slate. Neither is a play we love, but both are viable at their price.
MLB DFS Stacks Today: The Dodgers Anchor A Flat Board
Los Angeles is the anchor. With a slate-high 5.4 implied total against Kyle Freeland (COL), the Dodgers draw the most exposure, and it shows in the bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is heavily owned and Mookie Betts (LAD) sits around 30%.
The striking thing is how flat everything else is. Even the Dodgers land under 20% before any weather adjustment, because we are spreading spend across cheap arms like Jax, Lauer, and Buehler rather than paying up. After capping the rain-risk Washington and Houston game to zero in the Sims, the stack picture settles at roughly 40% Dodgers, 15% Arizona, 14% Atlanta, 10% Colorado, 9% San Diego, and 7% Toronto. Notably, capping that game barely moved pitching exposure at all, which tells you the arms are locked in independent of the weather.
Ownership And Leverage: Where To Get Different
- Atlanta Braves Against Freddy Peralta (NYM): around 7% owned, and Peralta has been getting tuned up lately. The Braves have not been sharp offensively, but that low ownership plus a shaky opponent is exactly the kind of cheap leverage that wins a large-field GPP.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: a low-owned pure leverage stack against Buehler. They do not strike out and do not hit for much power, so this is a contrarian dart rather than a core play.
- The Weather Lever: if the Nationals versus Astros game is postponed, a lot of exposure evaporates and reshuffles onto the rest of the board. Washington carries the second-highest team total on the slate at 5.1, with Luis García Jr. (WSH) near 30% against Mike Burrows (HOU), CJ Abrams (WSH) at 17%, and James Wood (WSH) in the mix. On the Houston side, Jose Altuve (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU) near 30%, Isaac Paredes (HOU) at 27%, and Yainer Diaz (HOU) all take a hit. Watch that forecast before lock and be ready to pivot.
Power And Home Run Angles
Mixing MLB home-run props in alongside your DFS builds? The show flagged a few power bats worth tracking, including Anthony Volpe (NYY), James Wood (WSH), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU), where the OddsShopper Sharp Action tool showed sharp money leaning to the over. Shop the number and check the live board on the OddsShopper MLB home-run props page before you place anything, since the best price moved from book to book all morning.
Example: How The Two Cheap Arms Pair
Here is how I would put the flat board to work in a GPP build. Pairing Griffin Jax (TB) at $7,500 with Eric Lauer (LAD) at $6,000 spends just $13,500 on pitching combined, which banks a mountain of salary to fit a full-price Dodgers stack around Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Mookie Betts (LAD). It is a natural correlation: Jax's edge is a depleted Yankees offense, Lauer's is a Rockies lineup that cannot touch lefties, and neither is popular enough to sink you if the field piles onto the same one or two arms. Let the Sims fill out the rest of the roster and set your exposures, then nudge toward the lower-owned Atlanta or Arizona bats if you want a contrarian second lineup. For a full board of daily projections, our MLB DFS picks today page updates the top plays every morning.
The Bottom Line
This is a make-concessions slate: no ace, no perfect cheap arm, and a field that has to reach for the same imperfect options you do. That is where the Sims earn their keep. They tell you Griffin Jax is the chalk, Eric Lauer is the leverage arm the field is under-rostering, and the Dodgers are the anchor stack, then build the correlated lineups for you at scale.
⚾ Get every projection and the top-stacks board. Run the full slate through the Stokastic MLB Sims and build optimized DraftKings and FanDuel lineups in seconds. Code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.
- MLB DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic MLB Page
- MLB DFS Picks Today (8/18): Gausman Is Chalk On A 17-Point Pitching Slate
- MLB DFS Strategy: How To Win At Daily Fantasy Baseball
- How To Win MLB DFS With The Stokastic Sims And Contest Simulator
- MLB DFS Primer For DraftKings And FanDuel
FAQ
What is the top MLB DFS pitcher play today, July 6? Griffin Jax (TB) is the projected chalk at $7,500, ranking first in projected ownership against a depleted Yankees lineup that carries the lowest team total on the slate. Kevin Gausman (TOR) is our favorite of the three highest-priced arms, and Eric Lauer (LAD) is the leverage value at $6,000.
Who is the best MLB DFS stack tonight? The Los Angeles Dodgers anchor the board with a slate-high 5.4 implied run total against Kyle Freeland. Atlanta (against Freddy Peralta) and Arizona sit lower-owned as the leverage stacks. For the full daily board, see our MLB DFS picks today page.
What are Stokastic Sims? Stokastic runs the full slate through thousands of simulations to produce projections, projected ownership, leverage, and top-stack and top-pitcher probabilities. You build lineups on simulated outcomes rather than a single projected score.
When does today's MLB DFS slate lock? The main slate is a 7-game board with a 6:40 PM ET first lock (two games start at 6:40 and 6:45), so do not build for a 7:05 lock or you will miss games that have already started.