MLB DFS Picks (Aug. 4): Skubal's Dodgers Debut
August 4, 2026
These are our MLB DFS picks today for Tuesday's 11-game DraftKings main slate, and the pitching pool looks the way it does because of the trade deadline: three arms are making their first start for a new team, and one of them is priced like the deadline never happened. On the Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show, we broke the slate down live with our Sims, the DataHub, and real strikeout props, and the pricing gap at the top of the pitcher pool is the whole story.
Tarik Skubal — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) projects as the second-highest scorer on the slate at just $7,800, a full $3,200 cheaper than Tarik Skubal (LAD) debut start, because pricing hasn't caught up to his move into a much weaker matchup. Tampa Bay is our clear top stack after an 11-run outburst a night earlier, and Logan Henderson (MIL) is the value arm our Sims like more than the field does. The full pitcher-by-pitcher pricing, the stack rankings, and the bats we'd build around them with are below.
Watch The Video
We broke down this slate live, pitcher by pitcher, with real-time Sims runs and exposure checks on the Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show. Watch on YouTube.
The Trade Deadline Scrambled The Pitcher Pool
Three of today's most-talked-about arms are pitching for a different team than they were a week ago. Tarik Skubal (LAD) makes his Dodgers debut against the Chicago Cubs and Javier Assad (CHC) at $11,000, the most expensive pitcher on the slate, in a game with a nine-run total and wind blowing out. Freddy Peralta (TB) makes his Rays debut on the road at Coors Field against Gabriel Hughes (COL). We flagged that as an awkward spot to debut in ("throwing him into the lion's den"), but it's livable for one reason: Tampa's own 6.6-run team total gives Peralta a path to a win even if the Rockies scuff him up.
The most interesting mover, though, is MacKenzie Gore (TEX), who lands against a San Francisco Giants lineup that just got worse. San Francisco carries the lowest implied team total on the slate against Gore, and with a key bat dealt away at the deadline, the Giants now rank fifth-worst in strikeout rate against lefties, third-lowest in walk rate against lefties, and dead last in wRC+ (72) and wOBA against lefties in the league. Gore's strikeout, innings, and earned-run props priced out like a $10,000 arm's on the show: a 6.5 strikeout prop juiced to the over, a 17.5 outs prop, and a 1.5 earned-run line, all while he's sitting at his second-cheapest DraftKings price of the season. Our read: he should be priced closer to $8,800 given the matchup. That gap is exactly why our Sims runs turned up "a metric ton" of Gore exposure by default.
| Pitcher | Team | Salary | Opponent | K prop | Sims read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | LAD | $11,000 | Cubs (Assad) | — | Debut start, most expensive arm; second-highest top-pitcher probability |
| MacKenzie Gore | TEX | $7,800 | Giants (Tidwell) | 6.5 (juiced over) | #1 in value%, #2 in projection, only pitcher with a positive simulated ROI |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | $10,000 | Pirates (Jones) | 6.5 | 5th-best simulated player ROI despite just 6% early exposure |
| Patrick Sandoval | BOS | $6,800 to $6,900 | White Sox (Martin) | 5.5 | 7th-best projection, 2nd in value%; cheap enough to pair with a stack |
| Jared Jones | PIT | $7,600 | Brewers (Henderson) | — | Mid-tier price with real exposure (15%) |
| Ryan Weathers | NYY | — | Cardinals (Dobbins) | 5.5 | Fade lean. Cardinals rank 29th in K rate and don't chase strikeouts |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | $10,000 | Royals (Dobnak) | 5.5 | Uncomfortable range of outcomes at that price |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | $8,000 to $8,300 | Padres (Vasquez) | 3.5 | K prop too low to prioritize on a slate with better arms |
Patrick Sandoval (BOS) tells the same underpriced story as Gore, just one tier down. A 5.5 strikeout prop and a 15.5 outs prop at $6,800 to $6,900 is the profile of a pitcher who should cost more, which is why we flagged him as a pairing piece with a stack rather than a pure punt.
One clean fade: Ryan Weathers (NYY) draws a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that simply doesn't strike out. St. Louis ranks 29th in strikeout rate, top 10 in walk rate, and middle of the road in ISO and wRC+. A lefty who needs swings and misses to hit value is fighting the matchup before the first pitch, and our Sims exposure reflected it at just 6%.
A Worked Example: Pairing Gore With The Tampa Stack
Here's how we'd actually use the pricing gap above instead of just noting it. Roster MacKenzie Gore (TEX) at $7,800 for the pitcher savings, then spend the money he frees up on Tampa Bay's stack: Junior Caminero (TB) and Yandy Díaz (TB) in the middle of the order, with Jonathan Aranda (TB) at first base. That leaves a full $3,200 more in salary than a Skubal build carries into the same six roster spots, room we'd put toward Royce Lewis (MIN) or Trevor Larnach (MIN) off Minnesota's 5.2-run total. It's the same logic our Sims runs found on their own: cheap, underpriced pitching funds the stack that's actually projected to score.
Tampa Bay Is The Stack, And It Isn't Especially Close
The top stacks tool in the DataHub had Tampa Bay running away with the highest stack score on the slate before we even opened the Sims, and the run backed it up. A night earlier, the Rays put up 13 runs at Coors Field with multiple home runs and several stolen bases against a contact-heavy Rockies pitching staff, the exact profile that flagged as a smash spot again with Peralta now starting for Tampa and Gabriel Hughes (COL) on the mound across from him.
| Stack | 3-5 man exposure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35% | #1 team total (6.6) and #1 stack score two days running |
| Minnesota Twins | 15% | 5.2-run team total against Randy Dobnak (KC) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 9% | Facing Randy Vasquez (SD) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | ~9% | Sizable favorites over Javier Assad (CHC) |
| Colorado Rockies | ~0% | Coors pricing never fully resets; boosting exposure 25% only moved it to 5% |
Colorado is the trap worth naming directly. The Rockies carry a run total north of five thanks to Coors Field, but their DraftKings pricing never actually cools off between homestands, so the roster math doesn't pencil out even when the raw total looks appealing. We tested it live by artificially boosting Rockies exposure 25% in the Sims and still only pulled 5%, a clear signal to leave them out rather than force it. Even after we flattened Gore's exposure and reran the pool on six uniques, our lineup pool's minimum simulated ROI still held at 29%, which is the real tell that the underlying process (not just one chalk arm) is sound.
Team Totals Split The Slate Cleanly
Five teams project for fewer than four runs today, and five project for more than five, a wide enough gap to build a roster construction plan around.
| Below 4 Runs | Above 5 runs |
|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants (Vs. Gore) | Tampa Bay Rays (6.6, vs. Hughes) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates (Vs. Henderson) | Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Assad) |
| Detroit Tigers (Vs. Hancock) | Minnesota Twins (5.2, vs. Dobnak) |
| St. Louis Cardinals (Vs. Weathers) | Colorado Rockies (5.1, vs. Peralta) |
| Chicago Cubs (Vs. Skubal) | Atlanta Braves (5.1, vs. Gusto) |
Where The Bats Concentrated
First base carried the heaviest early exposure. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) against Javier Assad (CHC) and Jonathan Aranda (TB) both drew significant Sims usage, alongside Royce Lewis (MIN) at 25%. Tampa Bay's stack pulled its power pieces along with it: Junior Caminero (TB) sat at 27% at third base and Yandy Díaz (TB) at 16%, with Ryan McMahon (NYY) a distant third at 8%. Shortstop stayed the flattest position on our board; Taylor Walls (TB), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) all sat under 17%, with no single clear favorite. In the outfield, Trevor Larnach (MIN) at 19% and Jesús Sánchez (TOR) at 17% led early exposure, with a real but smaller share going to Tampa Bay's Chandler Simpson and Cedric Mullins. Catcher stayed almost entirely flat with no standout, and Colorado's Hunter Goodman was close to a complete miss in our player pool at $6,200.
Build around this with the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and projections in the DataHub, which is where the exposure numbers, stack scores, and strikeout props above came from live on the show.
For the rest of today's slate, our DraftKings MLB DFS cheat sheet and FanDuel MLB DFS cheat sheet break down pricing site by site, the Perfect Lineup breakdown has today's top plays by position, today's top stacks and pitchers digs deeper into our stack rankings, and Live Before Lock covers any news that breaks closer to first pitch. Our MLB DFS picks hub has the full daily archive.
In Summary
- Tarik Skubal (LAD), Freddy Peralta (TB), and MacKenzie Gore (TEX) are all making their first starts for new teams after the trade deadline.
- MacKenzie Gore (TEX) is $7,800 with $10,000-pitcher strikeout, outs, and earned-run props against a San Francisco lineup that lost a key bat at the deadline, the biggest pricing gap on the slate.
- Logan Henderson (MIL) grades out as the 5th-best simulated player ROI at pitcher despite drawing only 6% early exposure.
- Tampa Bay is the clear #1 stack (35% exposure) off an 11-run night against Rockies pitching; Colorado's own pricing never resets enough to be worth rostering even at a 5.1-run total.
- Five teams project under 4 runs (Giants, Pirates, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs) and five project over 5 (Rays, Dodgers, Twins, Rockies, Braves), a clean split for roster construction.
Get the tools that built this breakdown, our Sims, the DataHub, and our projections, with 10% off any DFS or Props package using code MLBSTRATEGY for your first month.
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More on this: MLB DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic MLB Page · MLB DFS Strategy: How To Win At Daily Fantasy Baseball · MLB DFS Multi-Entry Strategy: Build A Stack Portfolio · MLB DFS Correlation: Stacking & Pitcher Strategy · MLB DFS Contrarian Strategy: Win GPPs With Ownership