Bills vs Rams Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 5 MNF Top-10

Buffalo Bills Overview

Cornerback Jordan Hancock is on the IR with a hamstring issue and position-mate Te’Cory Couch tweaked his in Week 4 and he may be out as well. That could really impact things as Dee Alford (ankle) is questionable as well and the Bills could be down to understudies trying to stop the Los Angeles aerial attack. The defensive line is in trouble as well with Ed Oliver (knee) out and Landon Jackson (knee) questionable.

Most importantly for DFS purposes, DJ Moore (shoulder) may be out after getting hurt on Sunday and Joshua Palmer (shoulder) has been ruled out.

Ask the Sims about EMac's Kyren Williams math. EMac's Top-10 below says Williams needs at least 100 combined yards and a touchdown to break even at his salary. We typed that into Ask the Sims on the Kalshi Parlay Simulator. Williams reaches 100 rushing plus receiving yards in 41.8% of 10,000 simulated games, scores in 59.2%, and does both in 31.0%. The two legs land together more often than their prices imply, but the breakeven line still comes in fewer than one game in three, which is the case for Williams in a flex slot rather than the multiplier.

Ask it anything about tonight: Cook two touchdowns, Allen 37+ rushing yards, Nacua 100 yards. Same engine on the DraftKings and FanDuel simulators.

Quarterback

Josh Allen is battling Brock Purdy for the NFL MVP lead. He notched his 10th game with at least two rushing and two passing touchdowns against Detroit in primetime on Thursday Night Football to open up Week 2.

He is going to have to earn his paycheck this week as the Rams are allowing just 145.5 passing yards per game, a tick behind Seattle and 35 yards better than Chicago. LA has only seven sacks and they have also allowed seven passing touchdowns.

The books have Allen’s rushing prop at 36.5 yards, though it is worth noting that Brock Purdy, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts had a combined 14/54/1 which is paltry considering their ability to generate production with their legs.

Allen is averaging 29.5 rushing yards per game, trailing Caleb Williams (53.5 in two games) and Deshaun Watson (31.8). That is his lowest rate since the 2020 season, though he does lead the league with seven rushing touchdowns, tying with Derrick Henry heading into Sunday Night Football.

The Rams are missing a few defenders and considering that Allen was the top fantasy quarterback each of the last two years, we should still keep him firmly in the mix for the multiplier-slot across the industry.

Running Back

The Rams are solid against the run, especially if we take out the opener in Australia. Tank Bigsby (55 yards) is the only player to surpass 50 yards on the ground in this three game stretch, with JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Cam Skattebo each squeaking by that threshold on combined yards.

James Cook III had seven targets in the two games without Ty Johnson, though he has seen just three in the two subsequent games to Johnson’s six. On the flipside, Cook has 70 of the 74 running back carries, parlaying that into 421 yards and a trio of tuddies. He of course battles Allen for redzone carries, though he still has 31 rushing scores in his last 37 regular season games, tying for the league lead with 16 in 2024. Cook led the league with 1,621 rushing yards last season, earning a third consecutive Pro Bowl nomination. He is firmly in play and a viable option for the multiplier slot for those crafting 5+ lineups.

Ray Davis will be on the field for a handful of low-leverage snaps, though he has just two carries and one target this season. He sees some action as part of the kickoff return rotation, though is mostly a contingent play if something were to happen to Cook.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore (shoulder) is going to be a game-time decision after not practicing Thursday or Friday and being in a non-contact jersey Saturday. If he plays, we will be questioning his effectiveness and potentially being used as a decoy to avoid hits. If he is out, then it really opens things up for Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir who had seven and eight targets last week with the in-game injuries to Moore and Palmer.

Greg Dortch has mostly been employed as a kick returner, getting a couple of offensive snaps each game. He is live for his first target of the season and would become the premiere discount dandy on DraftKings ($800) if Moore is inactive, though he is still a deeper cut on FanDuel ($1,800) with the half-PPR scoring format.

Be sure to catch Stokastic’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:15pm ET for the real-time analysis of this situation.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox is the in-line blocking tight end, though he did have 15 touchdowns in the two seasons prior to Dalton Kincaid being drafted, culminating in a 2022 Pro Bowl nomination.

Kincaid is more of a giant slot/flanker and competing with Shakir and Moore for short and mid-range opportunities. He gets a boost if Moore is out, though he is likely to remain in the 60%-65% snap-share range along with Knox.

Jackson Hawes is averaging just over a one-third snap-share, though he has only one target on the season, compared to the six for Knox and 19 for Kincaid.

Kickers and DST

Tyler Bass has converted on all six of his field goal attempts this season, while making 13 of 14 extra points. Distance is not his forte and he has just 23 attempts from 50+ yards in his 87 games with Buffalo.

Los Angeles limits sacks, with the reigning NFL MVP having a scant 3.7% sack rate since the start of last year, with just 14 interceptions across 21 games. It should be noted that six of the picks have happened this season, with four in the last two tilts.

Buffalo is around league average with 2.5 sacks per game and the Bills have three interceptions and a pair of fumble recoveries on the turnover front.

Los Angeles Rams Overview

Reserve offensive linemen Keagen Trost and Justin Dedich are on the IR, though they each were designated to return on Sunday. Myles Garrett is on schedule with his post-arthroscopic knee procedure recovery, though he remains out, as do Terrance Ferguson and Ronnie Rivers.

Safety Quentin Lake (hip) and cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) are questionable heading into Monday Night Football, though Aaron Donald is expected to play.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford led the league in passing yards, touchdowns, touchdown rate and yards per game on his way to the NFL MVP award. This season his 297.3 yards per game is above his 276.9 from last year, though his touchdown rate has regressed from a career-high 7.7% to 3.7%, which is his second lowest rate ever.

It is rare that he runs, with 63 yards on 70 attempts over the last two-plus seasons, though keep in mind that this counts kneel-downs. He does have 12 first downs in this period, though he did have two rushing touchdowns on the way to the 2021 Super Bowl victory, he has just one in his last 135 regular season games.

Fortunately, the Bills are in the bottom-third of the league in most advanced metrics that measure pass defense. Books have Stafford’s over/under at 278.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns with -105 to -110 on the overs.

Running Back

Blake Corum has seen his snap-share slide to 29% and 15% in the last two games, though six of his eight targets have come in this stretch. Kyren Williams has a whopping 20 targets in this timeframe, with a hefty 13 in Philadelphia last Sunday for 10 receptions, both of which were personal-best marks.

Both of these games were close, which indicates that when things get tight, coach Sean McVay still leans on his trusty running back. Buffalo has allowed seven opposing running backs to tally 40+ rushing yards this season, along with Drake Maye. Three backs have also topped 27 receiving yards, so we can consider both Williams and Corum as targets in all formats.

Corum has a massive $6,000 discount to Williams on DraftKings, giving each a similar fantasy point per dollar ratio and while the “optimal” play is to use one or the other, they can be employed in the same entry to capture the full LA backfield production. On FanDuel Corum has a smaller $3,200 savings and his $7,200 cap hit is hard to accept for those building out less than 10 lineups.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams had 23 targets in the two games without Puka Nacua and 15 in the two games with the budding superstar. Even missing a pair of performances, Nacua is second on the team with 21 targets and he remains a priority play and a fine option for the multiplier designation.

Konata Mumpfield (shoulder) and Jordan Whittington have been splitting the WR3 role when both are healthy and it is important to note that the team waived Xavier Smith before last week’s game, leaving Tutu Atwell to pick up the WR4 scraps. Alec Bachman is now the main kick returner, though he has yet to step between the lines on offense.

Tight Ends

Colby Parkinson (shoulder) is expected to return after a one-game absence, which will eat into the opportunities for Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen. The trio still benefits from the absence of Terrance Ferguson and of course creative play calling from McVay.

Higbee has had 11 and six targets in the last two games, with Allen getting five in total and Parkinson has only five on the season. Last year it was Parkinson who led the way with 56 of the 150 targets to the position including the playoffs, though Higbee did mis six of those games and Ferguson four.

Let personal preference be your guide, though it is worth noting that Parkinson currently has 5% positive leverage on both the main DFS sites (meaning his probability of being in the optimal lineup is 5% higher than his current projected tournament rostership).

Kickers and DST

Harrison Mevis is just 5-of-7 this season and in his 13 regular season games with the Rams, he has attempted only one from beyond 50 yards, converting it back in Week 12 of last year. That is notable considering the “Thiccer Kicker” was a First-Team All-American as a sophomore at Missouri and he also set the SEC record with a 61-yard make with the Tigers as a senior. He did convert one from beyond 50 yards in the playoffs, making good on all six of his postseason kicks.

The Rams have just three interceptions this season and are in the bottom-five for takeaways. Buffalo has suffered seven turnovers, including four fumbles. Allen is around league average for interceptions, though his sack rate over the last season plus is almost the same has his first two seasons when he was still developing as a passer.

NFL DFS Week 5 MNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Josh Allen: Captain, my Captain!
2. Puka Nacua: A fine pivot from Allen. Based on the initial projection run with Moore included, the best base lineup with both on DraftKings has Stafford as the Captain. On FanDuel the best lineup with both has Nacua at MVP.
3. Kyren Williams: The current top lineup on both sites has Williams in a flex slot. He is viable as the multiplier, though at his salary he needs at least 100 combined yards and a touchdown to breakeven.
4. Matthew Stafford: The maestro that keeps everything humming along.
5. Khalil Shakir: Leads the team in targets, as he did each of the last two seasons. These rankings assume Moore is out.
6. Davante Adams: Salary is still up from the two games where he carried the load without Nacua.
7. Dalton Kincaid: Steady selection.
8. James Cook III: The lack of passing game involvement means the five-figure salary will be tough to return a profit on unless he scores twice and anything less than 100 yards and a touchdown will be a detriment if this game pushes towards the 54.5 point total.
9. Harrison Mevis: Still odd that he does not have more long-range attempts.
10. Tyler Bass: Would get the nod over Mevis if the game were in Buffalo. Both should benefit from the climate-controlled kicking environment.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Keon Coleman and DJ Moore: Coleman gets another chance at redemption if Moore remains out. If Moore plays, I am skeptical of how much he will be targeted. It makes the most sense if he sits out to keep him healthy for the long season still ahead even before we start thinking about playoffs.
13. Blake Corum: Can be played with Williams on DraftKings where he is already a borderline core play at $3,800.
14. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson: Higbee is likely to lose some playing time with Parkinson back, though he is still the better pass-catcher at the position with Ferguson out. Higbee carries a hefty $2,000 premium on DraftKings, though it is just $200 separating this duo on the blue site.
15. Ty Johnson: Better on DraftKings ($3,200) with the full-PPR scoring as compared to FanDuel ($4,800) where he is a tertiary option.
16. LOTTERY TICKETS
17. Greg Dortch: DraftKings ($800) only if Moore sits. He helps unlock some interesting lineup configurations at a minimum he will be returning kicks. It is important to note that he has yet to play on offense for Buffalo, but we know he was an adequate slot receiver who had nine touchdowns in his final four seasons with Arizona.
18. Skyler Bell: Fourth round selection who has yet to play. He was an All-American as a senior at Connecticut where he had 101 receptions for 1,278 yards and 13 touchdowns. He is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel.
19. Los Angeles DST: It will be interesting to see how the #BillsMafia is represented in SoCal. Donald’s return will be helpful in slowing the Buffalo rushing efforts, giving more DFS opportunities if Allen is forced to pass from the jump.
20. Buffalo DST: Would still be below the Rams in a home game.
21. Dawson Knox: He has a specific role, even if the targets have dwindled with the addition of Kincaid.
22. Konata Mumpfield, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell and Davis Allen: Projects for just under half a dozen offensive opportunities, good luck figuring out who lucks into 2-3 of those tonight, if anyone.
23. Ray Davis: Unlikely to see more than a carry or two and that would likely be in mop-up duty.
24. Jackson Hawes and Keleki Latu: Latu could be inactive and Hawes has the lone target for this in Week 3.
25. Dean Connors, Alex Bachman, Max Klare, Kurt Warner and Thurman Thomas: Better luck next time.

Build it with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Build EMac's showdown card with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Simulate the slate up to 10,000 times to find the highest-upside captain and flex builds, then use code EMAC15 for 15% off Stokastic Sims. Get Stokastic Sims with EMAC15

More on this: Lions Vs Bills Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 TNF Top-10 · Colts vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 SNF Top-10 · Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain · Cowboys Vs Giants Showdown DFS: Don't Captain Prescott · Patriots vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: The Opener's Captain Question