Colts vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 SNF Top-10

Indianapolis Colts Overview

Ashton Dulin is out, though the Colts have an otherwise clear injury report. In their opener at home, Indianapolis was overrun by the Baltimore Ravens 41-23, barely cracking 250 net yards on offense.

Jonathan Taylor looked good with 19/98/2 on the ground, with four targets for three catches and 23 yards. Rookie Seth McGowan was on the field for six snaps (11%), though he had no touches and saw one target. It was otherwise Taylor time and for those worried about his lack of passing game production, keep in mind he did have 55 targets last year, with at least four targets in 7 of 16 (44%) games.

Daniel Jones is working his way back from a fractured leg and torn right Achilles, so that is going to keep him tentative, compared to the scampering we know and love from “Danny Dimes.” Last Monday, Kansas City did a number on Bo Nix, making the third-year signal-caller and new offensive play caller Davis Webb look inept. We should by no means bury the Colts just yet, but they are nearly a touchdown underdog against a strong defense, augmented by one of the best home field advantages in Arrowhead Stadium.

Jones is not a particularly enticing DFS play himself, though at least he was adequately moving in the pocket against Baltimore and we can hope that his stewardship is at least effective enough to keep the Colts moving the chains. There is no need to put stock in the 1-15 record for Jones in Primetime games as he was with the enigmatic Giants and this is just noise, when compared to his recovery from last year’s various leg maladies.

Keenan Allen continues chugging along and he can jump from 13ths overall on the all-time reception leaderboard to 5th or 6th as he is only 40 catches behind Cris Carter and 41 away from Marvin Harrison Sr. The venerable veteran tied Alec Pierce with at team leading six targets and his snap share was behind only Josh Downs.

Allen is likely to cede some of his playing time and targets to Pierce as the newly minted $100 million dollar man works past his ankle woes, though that shift does not have to occur tonight.

Tyler Warren was on the field for 50 of the 54 (93%) offensive snaps, getting a solid five looks from Jones. Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree are holdovers that have been on the team the last few seasons, though neither is much of a receiving threat as they combine for around two targets per game, even in the two seasons prior to Warren’s arrival.

New head coach Shane Steichen will likely ride Taylor on the early downs, looking to mix in enough play-action and quick passes to keep the KC front-seven honest.

Kansas City Chiefs Overview

Patrick Mahomes II tore his left ACL and LCL last December, though any concerns were alleviated in the opener when he scampered for a touchdown and finished the game with 7/23/1 on the ground. We should not count on rushing production, but at a minimum he will take what the defense gives him if he is not covered and his mobility in the pocket is key with left tackle Josh Simmons out again. Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson survived in his spot start, having not regularly playing left tackle in college.

The Colts got worked over in the first half by Baltimore, with Zay Flowers putting up 150 yards and a score, converting five of six targets. He was positioned around the formation to avoid direct coverage from the dynamic duo of Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.

It also has been noted that the Colts have changed their designated “green dot” (aka the player with the headset receiver) from safety Cam Bynum to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither as there was too much delay with Bynum trying to position himself deep and also huddle up the defense between plays.

Kenneth Walker III crushed in the Week 1, with coach Andy Reid loading him up with carries on the first couple of drives. Walker also had six targets, catching three for 18 yards and a touchdown which was icing on the cake when added to his 23.173/1 rushing line. He has the coveted “bell cow” role that he did not get in Seattle, at least when Zach Charbonnet was healthy. It is important to remember that Walker is an adequate receiver, his weakness is pass-protection.

Rookie Emmett Johnson has the pass-catching role, as long as he can pick up blitzes, otherwise he is likely to cede work to Brashard Smith, who was active but did not step between the lines on offense. Johnson was solid with eight carries for 24 yards on the ground, flashing upside with two receptions for another 44 yards.

Travis Kelce will be 37-years-old next month and while he is no longer fleet of foot, if he ever really was, the Denver defense lost track of him and he rumbled down the field for a 59 yard reception. Noah Gray handles most of the blocking work and he should be on the field for at least half the snaps and he typically gets a thank you target or two from Mahomes.

Rookie Cyrus Allen had one offensive play, which was a surprise, as was downfield threat Tyquan Thornton having a 68% snap share. This pair is likely to split the WR3 role, though unless it is a high scoring game, it would be a surprise for them to see more than 3-4 combined targets.

Rashee Rice had an 83% snap-share, while Xavier Worthy was a 77%. The combined production for the wideouts was a meek 5/37/1, with Rice getting a touchdown. There may not be a lot of DFS goodness to go around as the team leans on Walker, who by the way had a team leading six targets. Mahomes’ passing props are 220.5 yards, 20.5 completions and 1.5 aerial scores.

Harrison Butker converted his lone field goal attempt, along with all four point after touchdown tries. He does not much long-range work with a disappointing 15-of-25 (60%) over his last 61 regular season games on 50-plus yard efforts, but he is outstanding from inside-50 and he has the implicit trust of the coaching staff.

The defense was stout at home, recording four sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery while allowing only 10 points.

NFL DFS Week 2 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Kenneth Walker III: Captain my Captain!
2. Jonathan Taylor: Would flip rankings with Walker if this game were in Indianapolis.
3. Patrick Mahomes: Do not count on regular rushing touchdowns, but it was good seeing him have full mobility nine months after his knee injury. Viable click for the multiplier-slot.
4. Tyler Warren: Things fall off quickly after the first trio, which makes for some interesting decision points. The best attribute for Warren is a lack of playing time competition, though he still has to compete with the wideouts for targets.
5. Xavier Worthy: Discounted from Rice by a hefty $4.0k on DraftKings, making him a core play in the full-PPR scoring format. The $800 savings from Rice on the blue site is less impactful.
6. Travis Kelce: Long history with Mahomes as an outlet when everything else is bottled up.
7. Daniel Jones: Pre leg injuries, he would have been ranked in the top-four.
8. Emmett Johnson: Salaries are a thing and he is a core play on both DK ($3.6k) and FD ($5.2k).
9. Harrison Butker: Homefield familiarity.
10. Rashee Rice: Salary, the rest of the team is healthy and he is more of a situational success than a bet on talent. Needs to score again to come close to paying off his high salary cap hit.

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Secondary Targets

• Spencer Shrader: Bounced around the league, seeing action in 2024 with the Colts, Chiefs and Jets, getting five games with Indy last year. Tonight will be his 11th NFL game.
• Kansas City DST: Should be good for a handful of combined sacks and takeaways.
• Keenan Allen: Older than dirt, but still has a role while Pierce regains full health. Also at a favorable salary compared to his position-mates. Has a likely 3-game suspension pending.
• Josh Downs: If not for salary, he would have the nod over Allen. Let personal preference be your guide. Likely to return punts with Dulin out, though Anthony Gould could be in the mix having been elevated from the practice squad for Dulin and he led the team in punt and kickoff returns last season.
• Alec Pierce: If healthy and at his full powers, he would have edged Rice out of the top-10 section above.

Lottery Tickets

• Indianapolis DST: Corralling Mahomes is always tough, though the Colts have the best cornerback tandem in the league and enough oomph on the defensive line that they are still a viable click.
• Noah Gray: Has a role that will get him on the field for half the snaps and he has a magician as a quarterback.
• Tyquan Thornton, Cyrus Allen and Laquan Treadwell: Different teams, but the Spidermen pointing meme is applicable. Each had a target in Week 1, though no catches.
• Seth McGowan: Only six snaps last week, best path to DFS relevance is in mop-up duty. If the game is close, expect Steichen to ride Taylor into the ground. Will share kickoff return duties with Gould.
• Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree: Each is live for a target, but it will be low value at best.
• Nikko Remigio: Main kick returner for KC, though he has seen only seven targets in sporadic work across the last two seasons, mostly occurring with injuries to his fellow wideouts.
• Justin Fields: Had a redzone snap last week alongside Mahomes on a misdirection play. Trick plays are fun, but even if he gets a rushing touchdown, he will be hard pressed to pay off his cap hit.
• Brashard Smith, Deion Burks, Jalen Royals, Anthony Gould and Jake Briningstool: Most will be active, though they have a combined 3.4 full-PPR fantasy projection.

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