Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain
By Jake Hari
September 13, 2026
The Sims' captain for Monday Night Football is Patrick Mahomes (KC), in the 1.5x slot in 18.7% of their builds, and the field is on the same player. That settles the captain and moves the whole slate to the flex, where the Sims and the field disagree. Kalshi has the Chiefs at 56 cents to win, a modest favorite, and both quarterbacks are in about half the lineups: Patrick Mahomes 52.2%, Bo Nix 51.5%.
The most under-owned skill player with a real projection is Courtland Sutton (DEN), 25.5% owned against 28.1% in the Sims' builds. The most over-owned is RJ Harvey (DEN), 15.4% against 12.6%.
The Quick Answer
Patrick Mahomes (KC) is the captain for cash and smaller fields on DraftKings; the Sims put him in the 1.5x slot in 18.7% of builds. Bo Nix (DEN) is the tournament captain, 13.6% at captain in the Sims against 51.5% ownership overall. Patrick Mahomes (KC) goes in about 51 percent of your builds and Bo Nix (DEN) in about 52. On FanDuel the Sims' MVP is Patrick Mahomes (KC) at 21.3%. The full Sims board, the position-by-position reads and two legal builds are below. Code OPENER is 20% off through Monday night if you want the live Sims behind them.
The Board: Every Player Who Matters, With Sims Ownership
DraftKings showdown: one captain at 1.5 times salary and points, five flex spots, $50,000, at least one player from each team. Flex salary shown. Sims Ownership is the projected field ownership, Sims Exposure is how often the Stokastic Sims roster the player across their own optimal builds, and Captain Exposure is how often the Sims put him in the 1.5x slot. All from the Sims' Saturday 7:40 p.m. ET run; nothing here is a result.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Sims Projection | Sims Ownership | Sims Exposure | Captain Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | $9,600 | 18.1 | 52.2% | 51.3% | 18.7% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $10,600 | 17.7 | 46.1% | 44.0% | 15.4% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $9,800 | 17.6 | 51.5% | 52.4% | 13.6% |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | $9,400 | 15.4 | 36.5% | 37.1% | 12.5% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,000 | 13.4 | 31.4% | 31.1% | 8.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $8,000 | 11.7 | 25.5% | 28.1% | 7.8% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | $7,000 | 10.6 | 26.8% | 27.7% | 5.1% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $6,400 | 10.0 | 28.8% | 26.6% | 2.8% |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | $6,600 | 9.2 | 22.2% | 22.9% | 3.7% |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | $5,000 | 8.5 | 31.0% | 27.8% | 1.9% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | $7,400 | 8.4 | 15.4% | 12.6% | 1.1% |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | $5,200 | 7.3 | 18.4% | 18.8% | 1.3% |
| Broncos D/ST | DEN | DST | $4,800 | 6.9 | 16.0% | 16.5% | 1.6% |
| Chiefs D/ST | KC | DST | $4,400 | 6.9 | 16.4% | 20.1% | 2.0% |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | $3,200 | 6.4 | 20.8% | 21.2% | 1.5% |
| Evan Engram | DEN | TE | $3,400 | 6.3 | 18.7% | 19.2% | 1.3% |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | $3,600 | 4.6 | 11.3% | 10.9% | 0.6% |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | RB | $2,600 | 3.4 | 4.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
Quarterbacks: Mahomes And Nix Are Both Chalk, One Is The Captain
Patrick Mahomes (KC) at $9,600 projects 18.1 with 52.2% ownership against a 51.3% Sims exposure, so the field is a shade over him. Bo Nix (DEN) is next at $9,800 and 17.6, 51.5% owned, 52.4% in the Sims' builds. The captain question between them is settled by the Sims' captain rates: Patrick Mahomes 18.7% against Bo Nix 13.6%. In a game this close the cheaper way to get quarterback exposure is the flex.
Running Backs: Walker Is The Volume
Kenneth Walker III (KC) carries the backfield at $10,600: 17.7 projected, 46.1% owned, and the Sims roster him 44.0% of the time. J.K. Dobbins (DEN) is the other side's back at $6,400, 10.0 and 28.8%. The cheap one is RJ Harvey (DEN) at $7,400, 8.4 projected and 15.4% owned, the salary relief that makes a star captain fit.
Wide Receivers: Rice Leads, The Second Receiver Is The Argument
Rashee Rice (KC) is the top receiver on the board at 15.4, and the field is under him: 36.5% owned, 37.1% in the Sims. The second receiver slot is the argument. Jaylen Waddle (DEN) projects 13.4 at 31.4% owned and Courtland Sutton (DEN) 11.7 at 25.5%, with the Sims under the field on Sutton by 2.6 points.
Tight Ends: Kelce Is The One
Travis Kelce (KC) is the tight end the Sims trust, 10.6 at $7,000, 26.8% owned against 27.7% in their builds. Evan Engram (DEN) at $3,400 projects 6.3. The cheap one, Noah Gray (KC) at $2,000, is 6.8% owned for 2.8.
Kickers And Defenses: The Cheap Way To A Star Captain
Harrison Butker (KC) at $5,000 projects 8.5 and is 31.0% owned, Wil Lutz (DEN) 7.3 at 18.4%. Broncos D/ST at $4,800 projects 6.9 with 16.0% ownership against 16.5% in the Sims, and Chiefs D/ST at $4,400 projects 6.9 at 16.4%. A defense is the only way to get under the kicker price, and that is the whole case for one: it is what pays for a Mahomes captain without giving up the second quarterback.
Two Builds: Captain Mahomes For Cash, Captain Nix For The Field
| Slot | Cash / smaller fields | Salary | Sims Projection | Tournaments | Salary | Sims Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | $14,400 | 27.2 | Bo Nix (DEN) | $14,700 | 26.3 |
| FLEX | Kenneth Walker III (KC) | $10,600 | 17.7 | Kenneth Walker III (KC) | $10,600 | 17.7 |
| FLEX | Bo Nix (DEN) | $9,800 | 17.6 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | $9,600 | 18.1 |
| FLEX | Travis Kelce (KC) | $7,000 | 10.6 | J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | $6,400 | 10.0 |
| FLEX | Harrison Butker (KC) | $5,000 | 8.5 | Harrison Butker (KC) | $5,000 | 8.5 |
| FLEX | Pat Bryant (DEN) | $3,200 | 6.4 | Pat Bryant (DEN) | $3,200 | 6.4 |
| Total | $50,000 | 88.0 | $49,500 | 87.1 |
Both builds are legal on DraftKings: under $50,000 with at least one player from each team, and both are the highest-projection lineup the Sims' most-rostered sixteen players allow around that captain. The cash build leaves $0 unspent; the tournament build leaves $500. Copy them or build off them; they are the shape of the slate: the captain the Sims trust with 1.5x, the two quarterbacks handled as flex plays, and the cheap pieces that make the salary work.
What Changes Before Kickoff
The board above is the Saturday 7:40 p.m. ET run. Inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff, and the Sims re-run on every roster change through lock; the Stokastic NFL showdown Sims carry the live version of every number on this page. If a name in the board is ruled out, the captain answer changes with it.
Last chance on the NFL launch offer. Code OPENER takes 20% off your first payment on any Stokastic NFL DFS or All Access package, and it expires Monday night, September 14. The showdown Sims are live now.
Code OPENER takes 20% off your first payment on any Stokastic NFL DFS or All Access package through Monday night, September 14. The NFL showdown Sims are live.
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