Buccaneers vs Cowboys Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 5 TNF Top-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview

Tampa is one of five teams that are still winless. The Buccaneers have seen their scoring slide each week from 27, to 19, to 16 and finally 14 last week without Baker Mayfield. Fortunately the defense has followed a similar trajectory, with 33, 23, 23 and 17 points allowed.

Mayfield is out again with a dislocated right thumb, while the defense is missing key contributors in the back seven including in linebacker SirVocea Dennis (foot), safety Antonio Winfield Jr. and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad), who is missing a second straight game.

Ask the Sims about EMac's Lamb math. EMac's Top-10 below says CeeDee Lamb needs 6-7 catches, 100+ yards and a touchdown to break even at his salary. We typed that into Ask the Sims on the Kalshi Parlay Simulator. Lamb gets 6+ receptions in 57.4% of 10,000 simulated games, scores in 51.8%, and reaches 100 yards in 34.6%. The full breakeven line lands far less often than the salary implies, which is the case for Prescott as the multiplier instead.

Ask it anything about tonight: Pickens anytime TD, Goodson mop-up carries, a Daniels interception. Same engine on the Polymarket Combo Simulator.

Quarterback

Jalon Daniels started last week, suffering two interceptions against Green Bay, with three sacks. He was a UDFA out of Kansas, who we have all heard by now as having played six seasons. In his first four seasons, which included the pandemic and a couple of injuries, he appeared in 25 games. The relaxed eligibility rules gave him two more seasons and he finished out his career playing in all 12 games each year, including 2024 when he led the Big 12 with a dozen interceptions, but also with 14.4 yards per completion.

Dallas has allowed two passing touchdowns each week, with Jaxson Dart notching three in the opener, ranking fifth overall, while being the only team that has yet to corral an interception and collecting just four sacks in total. The only way this matchup would be softer is if the game were taking place in Tampa.

The Cowboys have allowed a 122.7 passer rating, which is the highest in the league, though it will still be up to Daniels to actually convert in just his second career start, under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football.

Ending on a positive note, Daniels did have 55 yards on eight carries last week, after taking his lone scamper in Week 3 for nine yards.

Running Back

Bucky Irving remains the “lead” back, logging 14 more snaps than Kenny Gainwell in the last two games, including a 37-27 edge on Sunday. Unfortunately, Daniels threw only two passes to the position, with Gainwell getting both looks, catching both for 22 yards and a score.

Naturally Sean Tucker had carries on all three of his offensive snaps, earning 10 yards and he logged the other touchdown with all of the action transpiring in the red zone.

Irving is still a priority click, though he will be popular among gamers tonight as there are few exciting plays from the Buccaneers. While he did not find pay dirt like his position-mates, he still had 16 carries for 61 yards and he has 56 totes on the season, with Gainwell trailing with only 13 and Tucker with his aforementioned trio, playing four total snaps this season.

Wide Receivers

Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin should be on the field for around 80% of the offensive action. Sunday saw Godwin with a team high seven targets, while Egbuka had four. This should not be a surprise as Godwin will have more first reads in a conservative game play with an inexperience quarterback.

Rookie Ted Hurst III had three targets, while Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson had two apiece.

Godwin has a miniscule 3.8 ADoT on 18 targets, though he has averaged 6.1 yards after the catch on his 16 receptions. Egbuka is the game breaker, but he projects for 4.6 targets and three receptions, with downfield threat Hurst looking at 3.2 targets for 1.8 catches.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton saw six looks from Daniels and we know that rookie and inexperience quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight ends since they are typically the biggest and closest targets.

The former University of Washington stalwart has 23 of the 24 targets to the position this season, with Payne Durham seeing the other lone look back in Week 3.

Kickers and DST

Chase McLaughlin has missed only one of his last 16 efforts from 50+ yards and while he has never earned Pro Bowl accolades, he has an 85.6% success rate in his seven-plus seasons with seven franchises.

The Pewter Pirates have been solid allowing 23 or fewer points in the last trio of tilts, though the six sacks, three interceptions and one fumble recovery dampens their DFS expectations against juggernaut offense.

Dallas Cowboys Overview

The defense wis without cover man Cobie Durant, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and offensive lineman Drew Shelton as all are working through hamstring issues. The offensive line is also without reserves Tyler Smith and Matt Hennessy who are on the IR. Adding Joey Porter Jr. should bouy the defensive backfield until Marist Liufau, P.J. Locke, Devin Moore and Jalen Thompson return from the IR.

Quarterback

We see the Cowboys half a dozen times every year in primetime, so we know what we are getting with Dak Prescott. He is mobile in the pocket and will steal a first down now and then with his legs when the defense drops too many players into coverage. Most of his work is done as the maestro of the offense and he has led the league in completions during each of his last two healthy seasons, while also receiving Pro Bowl accolades in those campaigns.

He is a reasonable click for the multiplier slot, though we want to remember he has three or four skill position players who could have a multi-touchdown game at any time

Running Back

Javonte Williams helped Dallas top the Texans in Houston last week with a trio of tuddies, marking his second game this season with multiple scores. He owns the backfield with Hunter Luepke more of a fullback/H-back and late preseason acquisition Emari Demercado has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks.

Tyler Goodson is the RB2, having entered the league as a UDFA back in 2022 after three seasons at the University of Iowa. He did see action in each of the last three seasons with Indianapolis, bookending that with stops at Green Bay and Atlanta, where he was signed off the Falcons practice squad in mid-September.

Luepke and Goodson are each live for a target, with Goodson seeing a handful of low-leverage carries to spell Williams. Goodson also has a path to DFS relevance tonight if there is extended second-half mop-up duty.

Williams is far from an efficient back with 3.7 yards per carry this season and a pitiful 4.3 yards per catch during his entire time with Dallas. He will also have to deal with Vita Vea and a stout Tampa defensive line, though the sheer volume of opportunities helps offset these concerns.

Wide Receivers

Per ESPN Research, CeeDee Lamb was the fourth player in league history with at least 17 receptions, 185 yards and a touchdown in a single-game. Lamb leads the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards and first downs. He has earned Pro Bowl nominations each of the last fives seasons, while also being named First-Team All-NFL once and Second-Team twice. He is a top-five receiver year in and year out, which leaves very little to add.

George Pickens had just three targets Sunday, which should not be a surprise as Lamb had 21 of the 42 in the game. Prior to that the former Pittsburgh Steeler had 25 targets in the first three games and tonight would be a great time for Prescott to get ahead of any squeaky wheel or pouting performances from his mercurial pass-catcher. Pickens did have two receptions for a stellar 75 yards, but he is still looking for his first touchdown of the season.

Ryan Flournoy has consolidated the WR3 role and he has at least four targets in each game, while ranking third on the team with 23 in total.

Jonathan Mingo will likely be on the field for around a dozen snaps tonight, barring injury to any of his counterparts, while KaVontae Turpin (three targets, no carries) has seen his schemed plays dwindle with the ascension of Flournoy and the overall health of the starters.

Tight Ends

After the opener when Jake Ferguson and Brevyn Spann-Ford each had two targets, there was a lot of handwringing in the fantasy world and of course extreme best ball panic, fueled by Spann-Ford having just signed a three-year, $18 million deal.

Since then, Spann-Ford has two targets, while Ferguson has seen 13 and nary a peep has been heard from the overreactors. Spann-Ford is a strong blocker, but it is Ferguson, who got his own nice contract (four-years, $50 million in 2025) after Dallas moved on from Dalton Schultz that is still the trusted option for Prescott.

Luke Schoonmaker will probably be mentioned a couple times tonight by the broadcast team, though he has just two targets on the season and last year he had just 23, despite appearing in all 17 games. For extra perspective, Spann-Ford had 13 targets last year, while Ferguson had 102.

Kickers and DST

Yes, Brandon Aubrey has connected on “only” 13 of his last 22 field goal attempts from beyond 50 yards since the start of least year, but that is because the team has no issues giving him opportunities from 55+ yards. He is still the league’s gold standard and very popular with the casuals who will be playing tonight.

Dallas should finally get an interception tonight against the UDFA rookie and multiple sacks are very much in play, which is worth calling out since the Cowboys have just four on the season.

NFL DFS Week 5 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jalon Daniels: Well this was unexpected, but salary is a thing and Daniels is currently in the “top optimal” lineup using the median Stokastic projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
2. Dak Prescott: Actually has the best fantasy point per dollar ratio of the non-scrubs on the main DFS sites, though only a tick ahead of Daniels. The top lineup with Prescott as the multiplier is within half a fantasy point of the Daniels’ construct on DraftKings and just under 0.9 fantasy points on FanDuel.
3. Javonte Williams: The “volume king” is in the two aforementioned builds on both sites and he is appealing with his opportunity projection. Where he starts to falter before the game kicks off is facing a tough Tampa front four, without two key offensive linemen.
4. CeeDee Lamb: Rightfully carries the highest salary for the single-slate contests across the industry. That means he needs 6-7 catches, 100+ yards and a touchdown to breakeven.
5. Bucky Irving: By default he is going to get a lot of attention in the DFS world and from the Dallas defense. This is going to be a fun slate filled with more top-end decision points than usual. Giggity!
6. George Pickens: The +133 anytime touchdown on NoVig is very appealing and considering his talent and downfield ability, he rounds out the best six multiplier options and could easily break the slate.
7. Brandon Aubrey: We need salary savers and it is fun getting a kicker with 15+ fantasy point potential.
8. Chase McLaughlin: He does not have the same cache as Aubrey, though his offense is more likely to stall out before reaching the redzone and he has a similar fantasy point per dollar ratio.
9. Cade Otton: Six targets last week was right on par with his first three games and while he needs to score in order to really move the needle, the salary savings is very helpful tonight.
10. Dallas DST: Homefield advantage and a rookie quarterback making his second start. Just to reiterate, the unit has no interceptions and just four sacks and if Mayfield was starting, they would be in the Lottery Ticket section below.

Secondary Targets

• Chris Godwin Jr.: Hard to see him overwhelmed with targets, but he should vie for the team lead.
• Ryan Flournoy: Shaky secondary that is likely to be consumed with containing two top notch wideouts, leaving Flournoy in single coverage most of the night.
• Kenny Gainwell: Cheap, should have a handful of opportunities as a minimum expectation, plus contingent value if anything happens to Irving.
• Ted Hurst III: Viable semi-punt, particularly on DraftKings ($2,800).
• Tyler Goodson: Intriguing punt option below the kickers and DSTs, who could see extended fourth quarter run if the game is well under control.

Lottery Tickets

• Emeka Egbuka: Would be in the top-10 if Mayfield was under center, but salary is an impediment tonight when. This should have him on around 15% of all tournament rosters, which does bring its own appeal.
• Tez Johnson: Expect a target or two, keeping him above the rest of the unpredictable options below.
• Tampa Bay DST: Scoop-and-score, pick-six or a kick return is always in play.
• KaVontae Turpin: Main kick returner, less involved this year with everyone healthy on offense.
• Sean Tucker: Needs another fortuitous redzone conversion or mop up duty.
• Brevyn Spann-Ford, Hunter Luepke, Luke Schoonmaker and Jonathan Mingo: Each should at least see the field, though Mingo may be inactive with an injury. Combined this motley crew projects for 3.5 offensive opportunities.
• Kameron Johnson, Payne Durham, Ko Kieft and Bauer Sharp: Sharp was a sixth-round selection in April who has yet to be active, Kieft (elbow) is no longer on the injury report. Only one will be active and Kieft plays special teams.

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