Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's MNF Week 1 Top-10 And The Rest

Eric MacPherson's showdown card for Monday Night Football, the Broncos at the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Take his Top-10 into the Stokastic NFL Sims and build from there.

Denver Broncos Overview

We last saw the Broncos when they fell just short of the Super Bowl, losing a 10-7 game to the New England Patriots, despite Jarrett Stidham starting for an injured Bo Nix and Marvin Mims Jr. leading the team in receiving yards.

Tonight Nix will be under center, J.K. Dobbins is healthy and the receiving corps is completely remade with the addition of Jaylen Waddle. The first two seasons for Nix have seen him post nearly carbon copy stat lines, so it will be interesting to see if he takes a step forward or just settles into a role as an enhanced game manager with rushing upside.

The Kansas City defense is solid, though in his four regular season games against the Chiefs, Nix has a 7-to-1 TD:Int ratio and a rushing touchdown, with three victories. Again, not sexy, but perfectly acceptable for real world results.

We know that Dobbins will be the early down rusher, giving way to R.J. Harvey on clear passing downs. In his 10 games last year, Dobbins had 14 targets, with 11 receptions for 37 yards. Harvey is a capable runner, putting up 540 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his rookie campaign, along with 58 targets for 47 receptions, 356 yards and five scores. He is dynamic, though at 5’8” 205lbs he is not much of a short-yardage threat or between the tackles.

Rookie Jonah Coleman was a fourth-round selection who was a lead back for Arizona as a sophomore, then transferring to the University of Washington, where he had 25 rushing and two receiving touchdowns in his last two seasons He can contribute in all facets of the game, with 1,100+ combined yards in each of his final three college seasons. We will probably see him for a handful of snaps tonight, but it would likely take an in-game injury to one of his backfield mates for him to have much DFS relevance. Going forward, it would not be a surprise to see him chip away at Dobbins’ role, since they are similarly built and Coleman can actually catch passes and produce.

Cortland Sutton is the nominal WR1, having fallen by the wayside last year as coach Sean Payton auditioned both Pat Bryant and Nix’s former college teammate Troy Franklin as featured targets. It did not go so well for Franklin, who is back in a WR4 role, though Bryant showed flashes in the late season and playoffs, but suffered a pair of early game injuries that kept him off the field.

Marvin Mims Jr. will be on the field as a kick returner, having earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro accolades in his first two seasons, falling short last year. He is likely to get a couple targets, but there is no path to volume, so he would need to teleport his way into the endzone from long range.

Waddle and Sutton will likely draw most of the opportunities, with Bryant as a third-wheel, who likely will overtake Sutton at some point this season. Fortunately the Broncos do not scheme much for the tight end position, averaging just shy of half a dozen targets per game last year, including the playoffs. Two-thirds of the opportunities went to Evan Engram, but the 10-year veteran has only two touchdowns in the last two seasons and outside of name recognition, does not offer much.

Wil Lutz is a solid kicker, who transitioned from six years with the Saints in the climate controlled Superdome, to Mile High Field. There are no weather concerns for tonight’s game in Kansas City.

The Denver defense is loaded again and the team allowed the second-fewest yards and the third-fewest points in the league last year.

Kansas City Chiefs Overview

Patrick Mahomes II tore his left ACL and LCL last December, though he has no injury designation tonight. Expectations are that he will not make many forays downfield as he protects his knee, though he should still have mobility in the pocket, giving him an extra second or two against a fierce pass rush tonight. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out and indications are that it will be undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson drawing the spot start.

Though his string of six-consecutive Pro Bowls ended two seasons ago, Mahomes is still a magician behind a leaky offensive line with marginal and or aging receiving talent.

Kenneth Walker III got the bag this offseason with a 3-year, $43 million deal to leave Seattle. It has been a minute since coach Andy Reid had a “bell cow” back, so this should be fun. Keep in mind that while Walker tended to cede passing down and red zone work to Zach Charbonnet as a Seahawk, he is a capable receiver, just not the best in pass protection.

Rookie Emmett Johnson has the pass-catching role, though if he is not able to pick up blitzers, he will likely cede opportunities to Brashard Smith and of course Walker.

Travis Kelce will be 37-years-old in October and while he is unlikely to break any tackles or race down the field, he still has some of the best hands in the league and will be the likely “hot route” read for Mahomes tonight. Noah Gray remains the main blocking tight end and he is likely to be on the field for around two-thirds of the action tonight helping protect Mahomes. He should be in the mix for a couple of targets, though he is unlikely to see anything in the red zone other than a flukey look having just three targets under the shadow of the goalpost last year.

Xavier Worthy hurt his shoulder in the opener last year after being run into by Kelce and even when he returned to action it was clear he was not fully healthy for almost two months. It is hard to get a good read on what his role will be, though whispers are that Rashee Rice (injuries/off-field incidences) is about out of chances. We may not see a changing of the guard tonight, but with Rice being mostly a product of favorable circumstances rather than talent, it could happen sooner rather than later.

Tyquan Thornton is the deep threat and rookie Cyrus Allen had a favorable training camp. They are live for a big play with Mahomes at quarterback, though each has a floor of zero fantasy points.

Arrowhead Stadium is one of the best home field advantages in the league and that energy helps bring an already strong defense up another level. Harrison Butker continues to be a trustworthy option for the team, though he does his best work from inside of 50 yards.

NFL DFS Week 1 MNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Kenneth Walker III: Better on FD where he has the fourth highest salary as compared to DK where he has the top slot.

2. Bo Nix: Viable multiplier click, would have clear top honors if the game was in Denver.

3. Patrick Mahomes: If there was never a knee injury, he would rank first. This is still a tightly contested top-three, so let personal preference and risk tolerance be your primary guide.

4. Jaylen Waddle: It will be fun to see how the team incorporates him and how he manages to navigate the KC secondary.

5. Rashee Rice: The winds of change are blowing, but how impactful will they be tonight is hard to know, keep in mind he spent a month in jail this summer, though he was allowed some leniency for his knee injury rehabilitation efforts.

6. Travis Kelce: Trust goes a long way.

7. R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins: The former is better on DK with the full-PPR scoring, with the latter holding sway on the blue site.

8. Harrison Butker: Homefield familiarity.

9. Cortland Sutton: He is not old and dusty just yet, but the addition of Waddle and continued improvement of Bryant complicate his workload and upside.

10. Xavier Worthy: It is better to be early than late for a breakout.

Secondary Targets

Will Lutz: Just missed the cut for the top-10 by a whisker.

Kansas City DST: These teams are very familiar with each other and both have to be thrilled with the Chargers blowing their game on Sunday. Never count out this unit at home.

Denver DST: Would be above KC if this game were in Colorado. It will be interesting to see how Patrick Surtain II shapes the choices for Mahomes.

Emmett Johnson: Price is right on DK ($2.6k) where half a dozen touches will have his backers and KC fans smiling.

Pat Bryant: Different position, but similar fantasy point per dollar upside for the Broncos.

Lottery Tickets

Evan Engram: The main tight end and he dominated the positional targets last year, but the overall volume is nothing special in coach Payton’s offense.

Troy Franklin, Tyquan Thornton and Cyrus Allen: Dart throws, but all live for a long-shot payoff.

Noah Gray: Not sexy, but he has a crucial and defined role, which keeps him on the field. In showdown, that is valuable as is having a magician at quarterback.

Jonah Coleman: Expect a couple-three touches, though he has the potential to play his way into more opportunities along with being an injury away from a real role.

Marvin Mims Jr.: Returns kicks and should see one or two downfield looks.

Adam Trautman and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey: Payton’s “guys” that keep getting chances, Trautman is at least a decent blocker.

Jalen Royals, Nate Adkins, Jared Wiley, Nikko Remigio, Jake Briningstool and Tyler Badie: Just say no!

The Stokastic Sims Board For Broncos-Chiefs

The ten highest-projected players on the DraftKings showdown slate from the Stokastic NFL Sims' Monday 1:16 PM ET run today, flex salary, with projected field ownership, as a check on EMac's card above. The Sims re-run on every roster change through lock.

More on this: NFL DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic NFL Page · Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain · DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 MNF

Build it with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Build EMac's showdown card with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Simulate the slate up to 10,000 times to find the highest-upside captain and flex builds, then use code EMAC15 for 15% off any Stokastic NFL package. Get 15% off with code EMAC15