Falcons vs Packers Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 3 TNF Top-10

Atlanta Falcons Overview

Quarterback

It has been a rough start to the season for Atlanta, with the Falcons forced to start Cooper Rush for the first two games after “winner by default” of the offseason quarterback competition when Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in the days leading up to the opener.

Tagovailoa was brought in to compete for the starting role with Michael Penix, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 10 last year, the third of his career, with the first two being his right knee during his college career at Indiana. That was where he also had a fractured right clavicle and then in his final year with the Hoosiers, he had an AC joint sprain in his left (throwing shoulder). Shockingly he was healthy in his two seasons at the University of Washington, where he led the team to the National Championship game, before being the 8th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft by Atlanta, shocking most of the pundits.

Neither southpaw signal-caller has an injury designation heading into tonight’s action and from all the signs, this is now Penix’s job to lose. On a positive note, Penix had a strong 1.1 INT% rate, though he averaged only 220.2 passing yards per game with a 60.1% completion rate that put him among the likes of Cam Ward, Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, etc. He also adds nothing with his legs, averaging 2.8 yards per game, with a pair of touchdowns to his credit.

Of course, being able to start someone other than Rush should at least help the offense work outside of the first zone, which made things far too conservative and predictable, with the team putting up 13 points @PIT in the opener, while falling to one lonely field goal last Sunday against Carolina.

In these games, Rush had 229 total passing yards, with Jack Strand getting a chance in last Sunday, going 8-of-15 for 59 yards and a pick. Overall the team has managed just 33 first downs.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson has one-third of Atlanta’s first downs, even receiving the maximum focus of the defense and getting no help from anyone else. Having a competent field general will help involve the pass catchers and while it is likely to lead to a few less targets for Robinson, he should have more room to operate and it will make play action more effective. Robinson ranks 15th overall with his 11 receptions, tying Bucky Irving for first among running backs.

Brian Robinson Jr. has been solid with 20 carries for 82 yards, bringing in both targets for 16 more. He is not a threat to Bijan’s prioritization across the board, though if games get out of hand, expect new head coach Kevin Stefanski to give BRJ more opportunities between the 20s and in the second-half to save the face of the franchise from too much wear and tear. No other running backs have stepped between the lines on offense for the Falcons thus far.

Pass Catchers

Drake London is like the cheese standing alone, with little help from his position-mates. It simply has to boost his DFS prospects by having an above replacement-level quarterback in the mix. NFL nomads Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus are splitting the WR2 role. Dotson was the 16th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. His first two seasons in the league he was a WR3 for Washington, at least scoring some touchdowns (11), though the team was thrilled to flip him to Philadelphia in a deal that essentially netted them a third-round pick.

Dotson had just one touchdown in his two campaigns with the Eagles and the team happily declined his fifth-year option, leading to the once-time prospect signing with the Falcons. He has played on nearly 70% of the snaps, while Zaccheaus has seen the field 37% of the time.

For those that have not been paying attention, it has been three seasons since Zaccheaus was in Atlanta, so he has no familiarity with Penix and of course the new coaching staff. This is his eighth season in the league, having spent one campaign with Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago over the last three years.

Rookie Zachariah Branch has been on the field for 30% and 20% of the offensive action thus far, with both of his targets coming last week. Do not get excited by Chris Blair, who saw three targets last week. He was a UDFA from Alcorn State, having played his first two seasons in community college. Shout out to his perseverance having bounced around a few training camps/practice squads, along with one season in the XFL.

Austin Hooper is tied with Kyle Pitts Sr. for the tight end lead with four targets, with Charlie Woerner seeing one. Pitts was solid last year, after being a perennial disappointment, but we need to be aware that more than half of his production including 4-of-5 touchdowns were in Kirk Cousins starts.

Kickers and DST

Green Bay has suffered seven sacks, two fumbles and an interception through two weeks, while the Falcons have one fumble recovery and four quarterback takedowns. A.J. Terrell Jr. is out, which weakens an already sketchy secondary and first-round rookie James Pearce Jr. remains suspended through Week 8.

Nick Folk is in his 18th season in the NFL and 19th in professional football, having spent a minute with the Arizona Hotshots of the Alliance of American Football (AAF). That league of course folded after a few weeks, but not before Folk set a record for the longest field goal at 55-yards in the brief 2019 stretch of spring football. He is now 42-years old and while he led the league in accuracy over the last three seasons with a 96.3% success rate on his field goals, he has missed three of his six attempts thus far, two from beyond 50 yards.

Green Bay Packers Overview

Quarterback

Jordan Love and the Packers will be making their home debut, having lost in Minnesota to the Vikings 39-22 and barely beating the Jets 20-17. Love has tossed two tuddies in each game, though he is usually only a factor for the single-game format or other short-slates as he adds very little via his legs. In his last 33 regular season starts, he has one rushing score with 3.7 rushing yards per game and only 23 first downs.

Running Back

The Green Bay running game has not been any threat at all and the team ranks last with 64.5 yards per game, a long of 14 yards and no touchdowns with a 3.3 yards per carry rate that is the fourth lowest this season. It is interesting that Atlanta has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game with 63.0 and no touchdowns.

MarShawn Lloyd is finally healthy and while he leads the way with 19 carries and 57 yards, Chris Brooks has played more snaps and tallied 40 yards on his 11 carries, while being the better pass blocker and more of a between-the-tackles runner.

Last week Kaleb Johnson had his first eight carries for the Pack, accounting for 32 yards and looking solid on a couple plays with his power and agility. He was a third-round selection out of Iowa last year, though he landed in the Pittsburgh doghouse early after not downing a kickoff, allowing Seattle a free touchdown during a Week 2 31-17 home loss. He led the Big-10 in rushing yards (1,537) and touchdowns (21), adding two more scores on 22 receptions for 188 yards.

The Packers need some sort of spark from the running game until Josh Jacobs (off field incident) is available and savvy gamers are going to want to be early for this potential breakout, which could also be a wish-casting mirage.

Wide Receiver

Jayden Reed (neck) is out, which dramatically thins what was once a crowded wide receiver corp. There is no need to delve too deeply into this situation, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are both priority plays, with Skyy Moore and Bo Melton discount dandies.

Watson has scored in both games and already has 10 receptions for 189 yards and three touchdowns. Golden in turn has 10 receptions as well, for 153 yards, though he is still looking for his first trip to the end zone.

Moore out-snapped Melton 21-9 after Reed left in the first quarter. Melton has more time with the team, though keep in mind he did spend last year as a defensive back because he was so far down the depth chart. Moore was the 54th selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, though he never panned out with Kansas City. Last year he provided depth for the short-handed San Francisco 49ers, while also being the main kick returner. He has that special team’s role with the Packers this year and is more intriguing tonight than Dotson or Zaccheaus on the other side of the field.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft was somewhat eased back in Week 1 with a 68% snap-share, though that jumped to 90% last week as the Packers needed all their playmakers on the field. Jonnu Smith and Mark Redman are the backups, though Kraft really does not have any competition from his position-mates and now with the running game sputtering and the wide receiver group lacking depth, he should be able to make some noise.

Kickers and DST

The Pack Attack has just one interception, though the Falcons lead the league with five interceptions and two fumbles. Yes, it is going to be a “real” quarterback running the show tonight, but Penix has not had training camp or many practice reps. Green Bay has seven sacks which trails the league leaders by only one and the Falcons have suffered seven, behind only Miami and New Orleans.

NFL DFS Week 3 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Bijan Robinson: Captain my Captain!
2. Jordan Love: Will be the maestro of his offense.
3. Christian Watson: Finally healthy and making good on his talent.
4. Matthew Golden: In the top-10 for targets, trailing Watson by one. Everything is set up for him to erase the mediocrity of last season.
5. Drake London: Finally gets someone with more than a pop-gun arm.
6. Tucker Kraft: Looking like somewhat of a differentiation piece with two-thirds of the tournament field going elsewhere.
7. Michael Penix Jr: If he were fully healthy and not seeing his first action in 10 months he would be more trustworthy.
8. Kaleb Johnson: Borderline core play on DraftKings at $4,000, which is just over half the cap hit of Lloyd and $1,400 less than Brooks. The former Hawkeye is decent after the catch, he just is lacking pass protection experience after riding the pine for most of his rookie year.
9. Green Bay DST: In front of the Cheeseheads, against a porous offensive line and with Penix being thrown in the deep end.
10. Nick Folk: Veteran edge, plenty of experience kicking outdoors (the weather is fine tonight) and he has four more games at Lambeau Field than Smack and is slightly cheaper. Both are strong clicks tonight.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Trey Smack: Rookie was a sixth-round selection after starting three seasons for Florida, set the school record with nine career makes from 50-plus yards. Connected on all five attempts so far, including a long of 59-yards.
13. Chris Books and MarShawn Lloyd: The backfield trio will all get snaps, with Brooks having the edge in passing situations, while Lloyd’s salary is that of a more established lead back in a non-descript situation, without someone like Johnson chasing him down. None are bad plays and we clearly will not know which was the “best” play until the final box score is tallied up.
14. Kyle Pitts Sr.: Just when we thought we were out, here we go again.
15. Brian Robinson Jr.: Baseline expectation most weeks will be for 10-12 opportunities, though high value touches are likely to be few and far between, unlike the redzone role vacated by Tyler Allgier.
16. LOTTERY TICKETS
17. Skyy Moore: Should get a target or two and is the lead punt and kickoff returner.
18. Olamide Zaccheaus, Jahan Dotson and Zachariah Branch: The rookie is returning punts and sharing the kickoff role with Robinson Jr. and Zaccheaus, though he projects for the least offensive snaps of the trio. Zaccheaus is the more steady hand and use to new situations like tonight since he switched teams each of the last four seasons.
19. Atlanta DST: Meh.
20. Bo Melton: Fourth season with the team, back to being a wideout after he switched to defensive back last year to maintain his spot on the roster.
21. Austin Hooper, Jonnu Smith, Charlie Woerner, Josh Whyle and Nick Muse: We are still a few weeks away from National Tight End Day, though it would be a fun surprise if Jonnu has a “Remember Me?!” moment.
22. Chris Blair, J. Michael Sturdivante, Mark Redman, Matty “Ice” Ryan and Brett Favre: Wishful thinking.

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