Falcons vs Saints Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 4 MNF Top-10

Atlanta Falcons Overview

The Falcons have a mostly clean injury report, having last played during Week 3 Thursday Night Football. Linebacker Divine Deablo and defensive end Samson Ebukam are both questionable with hamstring injuries.

It is important to note that top cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. (groin), defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand (quad) and offensive lineman Cameron Williams (ankle) are all on injured reserve.

Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. looked solid last Thursday in Green Bay, posting 18-for-25 (72%) with 256 yards and a touchdown in his season debut. Falcons fans will take that over the uber conservative Cooper Rush/Jack Strand combo and hope the oft-injured field general stays healthy, keeping Tua Tagovailoa on the sidelines.

Penix was returning from a torn left ACL, having seen three of his seasons at Indiana cut short, including tearing his right ACL twice. He did have two strong seasons after transferring to the University of Washington, including leading the Huskies to the National Championship Game as a fifth-year senior, topping Division I with 555 passing attempts and 4,903 passing yards.

He is mobile enough in the pocket, though beginning with his time at Washington, his coaches have implored him to not take chances with his wild injury history. Fortunately he should be able to move the ball against the Saints, who have allowed six passing touchdowns on the season, though no opposing quarterback has cleared 250 passing yards.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson was outstanding against Green Bay, rushing for two touchdowns and 194 yards on 29 attempts, while converting both targets for 19 more yards. That marked the third time he has had 200+ combined yards in a primetime game, tying Shaun Alexander, Derrick Henry and Jerry Rice (per ESPN Research).

In the opener, New Orleans saw Jahmyr Gibbs post 186 combined yards with two scores, followed by 87 and a touchdown from Derrick Henry, then 96 and a score by Ashton Jeanty. The Saints are missing two key starting linebackers tonight and the depth has also taken a hit. That is a shame as this unit looks to be much improved from last season.

Brian Robinson Jr. had 10 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown on Thursday and he is averaging 10 carries for 44 yards per game, with a pair of receptions in Week 2 for 16 additional yards. Most of his work will come between the 20s, with Bijan getting 11 redzone looks to his one, all of which took place Thursday. Expect a 30%ish snap-share, with no other running back having yet stepped between the lines on offense.

Wide Receivers

Drake London was sublime with 10 targets for nine receptions and 194 yards, after getting 10 for 6/80/0 in the first two tilts. He has been outstanding when Penix has played and he is a priority click tonight, worthy of the multiplier slot.

Jahan Dotson has the snap-share (69%) of a WR2, though the former 16th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft has never been much of a target earner. He has 10 on the season, including three from Penix, with a 68% route participation rate and a 14% target share.

Rant time: It was annoying seeing how many content providers mentioned on Thursday that Olamide Zaccheus had familiarity with the Falcons. Yes, he did spend his first four seasons with the team, but in his final campaign back in 2022, Arthur Smith was the head coach and Penix was in his first season at Washington. Atlanta has had two head coaches since, while changing offensive play callers three times. How is that having familiarity?!

It would be better to say that Zaccheus is adaptable, since this is his fourth team (PHI, WAS, CHI) in as many seasons and he continues to provide productive veteran depth in a variety of schemes.

Rookie Zachariah Branch has snap-shares of 30%, 20% and 18% in the first three games, with two targets in Week 2 and then another pair from Penix in Green Bay. He was a third-round selection and will likely work his way into more playing time as the season progresses.

Chris Blair is a UDFA from Alcorn State, having played his first two seasons in community college. He had one year in the XFL, while also getting chances from a few teams in the preseason and on practice squads. He had all three of his targets in Week 2 and it would not be a surprise if he fades back into obscurity before Halloween.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts Sr. has played 14 games with Penix as the starter, seeing 74 targets for 55/505/2, which works out to 5.3 targets, 3.9 receptions and 36.1 yards per game. In 22 games with Kirk Cousins as the starter, Pitts was a little better with 5.9 targets, 4.1 receptions and 49.5 yards per game. Most of this production came in two games on the road against Tampa Bay, where he had a combined 17 targets for 15 catches, 257 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. It is hard to put any endorsements behind Pitts.

Charlie Woerner has a 57% snap-share with just two targets as he is mostly a blocker, while Austin Hooper has six targets, matching Pitts on 46 fewer plays, with each getting a pair from Penix last week.

Kickers and DST

New Orleans has ceded 10 sacks, while the Falcons have collected just five through the first trio of tilts. The Saints have suffered three interceptions and four lost fumbles, with Atlanta managing only two takeaways.

Nick Folk led the league in accuracy over the last three seasons with a 96.3% success rate on his field goals, he is 5-of-8 (63%), with two misses from over 50 yards. This is his 19th season, with the 42-year-old earning his lone Pro Bowl appearance as a rookie with Dallas back in 2007.

New Orleans Saints Overview

The defense will be without defensive end Carl Granderson and linebackers Kaden Ellis and Anfernee Jennings. Additionally, linebacker Pete Werner (shoulder) has not practiced and is questionable, along with tight end Noah Fant (abdomen) who was limited all week.

Tonight the team is recognizing the 20-year anniversary of the team returning to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina devastated the gulf region.

Quarterback

Tyler Shough ranked second with 305.7 passing yards per game heading into Week 4, with an elite eight aerial scores, adding 67 yards on 14 carries. He was serviceable last year when he started the final nine games, though the leap this year was not expected to be as dramatic for the 40th overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. Credit to head coach Kellen Moore, though there will likely be some rough patches ahead this season.

Over the last two games, Atlanta has allowed 599 net passing yards and five touchdowns to Bryce Young and Jordan Love. Considering the mess at running back, Shough is going to have shoulder a heavy burden tonight.

Running Back

Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) is on the injured reserve, which means Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the next men up. The team was ready to move on from Kamara, who elected to take a pay cut to stay and two different coaching regimes have been less than thrilled by Miller.

Atlanta is allowing just 47.7 rushing yards per game and even more impressive, just 2.8 yards per carry. This is a massive improvement from the 126.2 and 4.6 allowed last year, though as the season progresses, we will likely see the Falcons averaging 80-to-90 rushing yards per game, which still would be a top-three mark most seasons.

Even stretching back to his age-28 season, Kamara has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per reception and while he did lead the team with 471 rushing yards, he had only one touchdown last year.

Miller’s rates are very similar across limited action in his three-plus seasons, which makes this position a true pit of despair.

Pass Catchers

On a happy note, Chris Olave leads the league with 125 receiving yards per game, though he has scored only once on his 27 receptions. He has seen double-digit targets (36) in each game and should be a core play and in contention for the multiplier slot on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format.

Devaugh Vele has an 84% snap share, trailing only the 91% of Olave and he is averaging a tick over seven targets per tilt. After this duo it is rookie Bryce Lance with eight looks on a surprisingly high 73% play participation rate, with Kevin Austin Jr. getting the only other target for the wideout position.

Olave carries quite a premium with the second highest salary on DraftKings, ranking third on FanDuel. Vele does not come with a discount either, though he is at least $1.600 cheaper than tight end Juwan Johnson on the blue site.

Johnson is an adequate blocker, but he is much better as a receiver. On the season, he has 19 targets, with Noah Fant getting 12, so it would be beneficial to his opportunities if Fant sits out with his abdomen issue.

Rookie Oscar Delp missed the opener while recovering from a hamstring issue, playing each of the next two games but seeing just one target on 23 snaps. If Fant is out, Treyton Welch (personal) will likely be active, though he has no targets this season on 22 plays during the first two games.

The Saints have seven sacks and three takeaways through three games and Penix does a decent job of avoiding quarterback takedowns (4.0%) and interceptions (1.7%).

Kickers and DST

Daniel Carlson spent the last eight seasons kicking for the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders. He was outstanding in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, being named the First and Second All-NFL teams. Since that crescendo, he has converted his field goals at a respectable 85% clip, though he has made only 14-of-24 (58%) from 50+ yards, despite playing the majority of his games indoors.

NFL DFS Week 4 MNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Bijan Robinson: Captain my Captain!
2. Tyler Shough: Needs to be the straw that stirs the drink.
3. Chris Olave: Love seeing him healthy!
4. Drake London: Has thrived in the 13 starts with Penix at the controls.
5. Michael Penix Jr: Tougher click for the multiplier since he is unlikely to add anything with his legs, but he is still someone to be heavily invested in tonight.
6. Bryce Lance: Helpful at $1,800 on DraftKings. The rookie from North Dakota State should be on the field for two-thirds of the snaps. That is all we can really ask for on a single-game slate.
7. Alvin Kamara: Scored 8+ full-PPR points only once in his last seven games, needs a touchdown to really be effective for DFS purposes and while he did find pay dirt in Week 1, it was during the 2025 season. Yikes!
8. Juwan Johnson: No issues playing him over Kamara on DraftKings.
9. Daniel Carlson: We need some more salary savers with a decent baseline level of production.
10. Nick Folk: Ibid.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Devaughn Vele: Arguably an interchangeable pivot with Kamara and Johnson on DraftKings, consider flipping him in the rankings with Johnson on FanDuel where he has the discount.
13. Brian Robinson Jr.: Cheaper than Miller across the main DFS sites and with a similar projection, even though he is the clear RB2 behind a workhorse.
14. Kendre Miller: It would not be a surprise if Kamara is ineffective or just breaks down in-game.
15. Kyle Pitts Sr.: I am out, which means he will probably make some noise just to spite me. He is projecting in the 10%-to-15% popularity range on DraftKings ($5,800) and even those of us who have trepidations need to acknowledge his value on FanDuel ($4,600 / 25%).
16. Austin Hooper: $3,000 discount on DraftKings ($2,800) has me intrigued, less appealing at $3,800 on FanDuel.
17. LOTTERY TICKETS
18. New Orleans DST: Domefield advantage!
19. Atlanta DST: Definitely leveled up since last year.
20. Olamide Zaccheaus, Jahan Dotson and Zachariah Branch: Dotson gets the playing time, Zaccheaus is the veteran who actually contributes some fantasy production and Branch is the rookie wild card who is returning punts and sharing the kickoff role with Robinson Jr. and Zaccheaus.
21. Noah Fant: Would be at the top of the section if he had practiced in full without any injury designation for the full week. Decent chance he is inactive.
22. CJ Donaldson: RB3 for New Orleans, best employed on DraftKings ($1,400).
23. Oscar Delp, Charlie Woerner, Treyton Welch and Nick Muse: The deep tight end backups for both teams. #ShowdownFormatIsWeird
24. Chris Blair, Kevin Austin Jr. and Barion Brown: Thanks, but no thanks.

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