Rams vs Broncos Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 3 SNF Top-10

Los Angeles Rams Overview

This will be the third week we have Los Angeles under the prime-time lights and they will be on Monday Night Football in Week 5. The team is without Myles Garrett who went on the IR after having arthroscopic knee surgery, though Aaron Donald did buoy the spirits of the defense and the fans coming out of retirement.

Puka Nacua (hip/groin) missed Monday’s game and he is doubtful, along with safety Kamren Kitchens (hamstring) and Ronnie Rivers landed on the IR as well, with the offensive line already taking a hit with Justin Dedich and Keagen Trost being placed there late in the preseason. Colby Parkinson (knee) had not practiced through Friday, though at least fellow tight end Terrance Ferguson did practice in full the last two session.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford rallied the Rams to a 28-6 victory over the Giants, though sadly New York lost Jaxson Dart for the season early in the first period. The reigning NFL MVP looked much sharper than he did during the sprint to Australia and back, tossing four tuddies and 327 yards with one sack and one interception. We know he can move around the pocket a little to avoid pressure, but he is otherwise a statue in the box score with only 108 rushing yards on 89 attempts in his last 52 games, with no touchdowns. Keep in mind kneel-downs do count as carries for quarterbacks.

Last year the now 38-year-old led the league in passing yards, touchdowns, TD%, first downs and passing yards per game. He is the rare immobile field general who is still a viable option for the multiplier-slot for the single-game format.

It will be a tough matchup in Denver tonight, with the Broncos having kept Trevor Lawrence out of the end zone last week, after Patrick Mahomes carved them up for two aerial strikes and another rushing score.

Running Backs

The new baseline is that while Kyren Williams will handle the passing down work as the far better blocker and get first crack in the redzone, between the 20s it is going to be a more even split for snap-share with Blake Corum. Williams has five targets to the one for Corum and he wins the redzone battle seven to none.

Missing Rivers is not that big of a deal as he was the only other running back to see the field last year, logging only 19 regular season snaps. Through two weeks, Denver is in the bottom-five of the league against running backs from a fantasy perspective, with Bhayshul Tuten putting up 13/65/1 as the lead back after Kenneth Walker III went nuclear in the opener.

The two backs have also traded off drives, though we know what should play out in the high-leverage situations. Factoring in salaries, Corum brings a $2,000 savings of around DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel which is around a 25% discount. However, Williams still has the better fantasy point per dollar ratio on both sites, so the analysis needs to also account for the 2v2, 3v3, etc. and how the salary cap cushion is reallocated.

To be clear, both backs can be used in the same lineup, though it is most likely each reaches his maximum upside if something befalls the other in-game.

Pass Catchers

Combining the tight ends and wideouts makes sense, particularly since it appears Parkinson may miss this game. Tyler Higbee will likely step into any vacated running game snaps as the best remaining blocker, though it would be a surprise to see more than a couple of targets go his way. That is enough to keep him in the single-slate mix, though not a priority for anyone crafting less than 20 lineups.

Davante Adams had a throwback game as he was fed early and often, though the Patrick Surtain II led Denver secondary is far superior to New York’s defensive backfield. The former Fresno State Bulldog had 10 of the 31 targets, hauling in eight for 195 yards and two scores. The rest of the wideouts combining for just five, with two going to Tutu Atwell, who will likely be pushed back to irrelevance with the return of Jordan Whittington (quad) who missed Week 2, but is not carrying an injury designation after practicing in full. One last note on Adams, he had a hefty 198 air yards, which was nearly 60% of the team’s total.

Whittington’s availability should relegate Konata Mumpfield and Xavier Smith back to a 25%-to-30% snap-share, with the trio likely splitting somewhere between half a dozen and a dozen targets, depending on how Surtain is deployed.

Terrance Ferguson was second on the team with nine targets on Monday, catching six for 54 yards and a score. He is likely to be schemed into a more dynamic role once again by coach Sean Payton who is running out of playmakers in the passing game. If he becomes too successful, it would not be a surprise if he sees Surtain keeping tabs on him, since he is not much of an in-line tight end.

Davis Allen will be lurking and filling in as needed, likely continuing his games-targeted streak to three. Rookie Max Klare could be active tonight, though he is still awaiting his first offensive action.

Kicker and DST

Harrison Mevis aka the Thiccer Kicker missed his only field goal attempt of the season on Monday, a 43-yard effort towards the end of the first half. Last year after taking over the job midseason, he was a solid 12-of-13 down the stretch and he also converted all six playoff opportunities.

The defense sacked Jameis Winston twice and had a pick, heading into Week 3 with two of each. Denver has allowed four sacks this season, with two picks and no fumbles lost.

Denver Broncos Overview

J.K. Dobbins (hip) and RJ Harvey (hamstring) are not on the injury report, though rookie Jonah Coleman who filled in admirably against Jacksonville has been placed on the IR with an ankle issue. Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) is questionable after being limited in practice and reserve offensive linemen Frank Crum, Nick Gargiulo and Michael Deiter were already out, the rest of the two-deep is okay. On the defensive side, linebacker Jonathon Cooper remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List for off-field issues.

Quarterback

Bo Nix more than doubled his passing yards from the opener and avoided being sacked, ceding one interception against the Jaguars. He has a paltry eight rushing yards on as many attempts, though considering he averaged just over 22 rushing yards per game through is first two seasons, this is a skill that has not been lost, more likely subjected to a small sample size. He also has nine rushing touchdowns in the regular season.

From a macro perspective, even though Nix led the league in pass attempts last year, his overall per game averages were similar to his first season and that trend appears to be continuing into this campaign. The assessment is that he may not be much more than a glorified “game manager” which is still valuable in the league, but definitely second fiddle to the elite and superstar tiers. Perfectly acceptable in the multiplier-slot as well as being a priority click for the flex position.

Running Backs

The combination of Dobbins and Harvey is complementary, though it also can be a tell as to what the offense is leaning towards. Dobbins is the early down back and had only 14 targets for 11 receptions and 37 yards in his 10 healthy games last year. Harvey is actually a more than passable runner, but not between the tackles. He had 540 rushing yards and seven scores in his rookie campaign, adding 47 catches, 356 yards and five touchdowns on 58 targets.

Tyler Badie had three targets last week, while fullback Adam Prentice had two, with Badie getting the lone carry for the duo. Coleman being out likely pushes 5-6 offensive opportunities towards this pair. Badie’s salary on DraftKings ($5.4k) is such that it is hard to consider him as this is more of a solo-RB2 tag. Prentice is a $400 lottery ticket, though not really needed with how the player pool is shaking out.

Badie is better on FD ($2.4k), though it would be a shock if he is on more than 1-2% of tournament rosters. The former Missouri Tiger is usually seen in the passing game, though he will see an uptick in opportunities if something happens to either of his counterparts.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton has led the position in snaps each of the first two games, ranking second with nine targets. Jaylen Waddle was nearly invisible in the opener, but he was clearly a focus of first-time play-caller Davis Webb, getting 10 targets against Jacksonville. That should be no surprise since Denver traded first and third round selections in the last draft to bring him over from Miami.

Sutton did earn Pro Bowl accolades for the second time in his career last season, though this is his ninth NFL campaign and he can no longer carry the position on his own and never really was more than a “solid first option” in his career. There is no shame in that, but it is a dog-eat-dog world these days.

Pat Bryant fell from six targets to one, even with 11 more offensive snaps. That is standard fluctuation and there is still a decent chance he overtakes Sutton in the pecking order by Thanksgiving, if not sooner.

Troy Franklin is the clear WR4 and likely will only see a target or two and Lil’Jordan Humphrey should be active if Mims does miss tonight, though aside from seeing him pop up on the telly once or twice, he should remain in the castoff bin.

Tight End

Evan Engram scored in the opener, though it was Nate Adkins who carried the torch for this position on Sunday finding pay dirt. Adam Trautman is the better blocker, so he should be on the field for at least half the snaps, but targets are inconsistent as he went from three in Week 1 to none in Week 2, flipflopping with Adkins workload. Last year, including the playoffs, the position averaged just shy of half a dozen looks per game, which is on par with this season.

Kicker and DST

Wil Lutz has an 89.3% success rate on field goals in his three-plus years with the Broncos, adapting to life in the great outdoors after six seasons in New Orleans’ climate-controlled Superdome.

Last year, Denver allowed the second-fewest yards and the third-fewest points in the league and aside from the blip in Kansas City, they should be a top-10 unit again this season.

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NFL DFS Week 3 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Davante Adams: Is going to have to work for it this week against a top defensive backfield.
2. Bo Nix: Still has rushing upside, we just have not seen it yet.
3. Jaylen Waddle: Could be the start of a beautiful relationship.
4. Matt Stafford: One rushing score in his last 132 regular season games, will need multiple touchdowns and 250+ yards to start to return profit at tonight’s salary.
5. Terrance Ferguson: If he replicates last week, his salary is 50% too low on both sites.
6. RJ Harvey: Better than Dobbins with full-PPR scoring on DraftKings, gets the FanDuel edge for the $2,800 savings.
7. Kyren Williams: Steady contributor, even without explosive plays. Needs a touchdown to make his supporters happy.
8. Cortland Sutton: In the savvy veteran phase of his career.
9. Blake Corum: The gap with Williams continues to narrow and that is not reflected in the salary for either.
10. Wil Lutz: Temps in the upper-70s, slight chance of rain in the game window, though low at 15%.
11. NFL DFS Week 3 SNF Showdown: And the Rest

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Secondary Targets

• Pat Bryant: Pecking order is changing, but he has not passed Sutton yet and there are plenty of healthy options for coach Sean Payton.
• J.K. Dobbins: I just can’t get excited about a one-dimensional back who seemingly is injured every year and they are adding up.
• Harrison Mevis: The “Thiccer Kicker” will get it going at some point.
• Denver DST: Elevation, decent pass rush and Surtain.
• Los Angeles DST: Would flip Denver if it was in SoFi or if Garrett was healthy.

Lottery Tickets

• Colby Parkinson: If active.
• Jordan Whittington: Should be a full-go and returning to lead kickoff return duties.
• Xavier Smith: Shares kickoff return role with Whittington, main punt returner and gets WR3 role to split with Mumpfield.
• Evan Engram: Touchdown dependent.
• Troy Franklin and Konata Mumpfield: Different teams, same ranking for the reserve wideouts.
• Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen: If Parkinson is out.
• Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins: Move ahead of their LA counterparts if Parkinson is active.
• Marvin Mims Jr.: Expecting him to be out, if healthy he is mainly a returner, albeit a good one.
• Tyler Baddie and Adam Prentice: Will be on the field, touches and salary are misaligned for single-slate purposes.
• Max Klare: Could see first action of the season, or be inactive again.
• Lil’Jordan Humphrey: Payton can’t quit him.
• Tutu Atwell: Return of Whittington likely renders Atwell to inactive status.
• Jarrett Stidham and Stetson Bennett IV: It really has been that sort of a prime-time season thus far.

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