Raves vs Falcons Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 5 SNF Top-10

Baltimore Raves Overview

The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson (ankle) and newly acquired center Cam Jurgens (concussion), with offensive guard Andrew Vorhees (foot) questionable after getting in two limited practices. Additionally, center Ethan Pocic and his back up Jovaughn Gwyn are already on the IR.

On the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Trey Hendrickson (finger) is out for a second game and cornerback Marlon Humphry (calf/hamstring) is to be a last-minute decision, though he has not practiced. Defensive backs T.J. Tampa and Jahquez Robinson are on the IR.

Quarterback

Tyler “Snoop” Huntley is no stranger to having been pressed into duty as a starter for Baltimore, with four in both 2021 and 2022, one in 2023 and two last year, while making five in 2024 during a one-year sojourn to South Beach. Oh, he also was named to the Pro Bowl in 2022, which is front and center as to why the league is done with that exhibition game since so many players opt out due to “injuries” and such.

Huntley led the Pac-12 as a senior with a 73.1% completion rate, 10.3 yards per attempt and 10.94 air yards per attempt for the Utah Utes. He has a 66.6% completion rate in the league, with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while rushing for 881 yards with a 4.8 yards per attempt average and five touchdowns.

Atlanta has put forth one of the best rushing defenses though the first month of the season, which has had teams finding more success through the air. It has not exactly been a who’s who of the best backs in the league, though credit to the Falcons for holding Pittsburgh, Carolina, Green Bay and New Orleans to an average of 48.3 rushing yards per tilt, with 2.7 yards per carry and no touchdowns until Alvin Kamara put up two on Monday Night Football, though with only 23 yards on seven totes.

On the flipside, Atlanta has allowed the third most passing yards with 264.8 per matchup, though the team has been in the middle of the pack with an 87.9 passer rating, ceding seven scores, while collecting one interception and seven sacks.

Huntley has only three games of more than 17 DraftKings points for his career, with two of those games occurring all the way back in December of 2021.

Looking at OddsShopper/Portfolio EV we can see that most books have Huntley’s rushing line around 29.5 yards, with 27.5 passing attempts and around 175 passing yards.

Running Back

Derrick Henry started the season off on a high note, with a 24/144/3 line in Indianapolis, though in the three subsequent games he has averaged a respectable 76.7 yards per game with four scores, but it took 65 carries to get there with an average of 3.5 per tote. He has converted on all seven of his targets this season for another 44 yards.

King Henry is always among the rushing touchdown leaders and he is atop that category this season with seven, on a league-high 89 carries. This will be a good test of the Atlanta front four and we could see the Falcons load the box if Huntley does not keep them honest.

Henry typically has a 55%-to-65% snap share, with all of the other opportunities this season landing on Justice Hill, who has six targets and 14 carries. Rasheen Ali is the RB3, who is still awaiting his first offensive sighting.

Pass Catchers

Zay Flowers tweaked his hamstring in the opener, playing just 29% of the snaps, missing the next game and then returning with a 33% snap share. He is also managing a sore foot, though he was on the field for 73% of the offensive action against Tennessee Sunday.

Even with the limited playing time, he leads the team with 352 yards and two touchdowns, while his 18 receptions match Mark Andrews and his 22 targets just two short of the venerable tight end.

Durham Smythe (two targets) was lost to injury on Sunday, so it will be fourth-round rookie Matt Hibner (five targets) and fifth-round rookie Josh Cuevas (one target) rounding things out at the position.

Turning back to the wideouts, veteran Rashod Bateman is running routes, seeing nine of his 15 targets n Week 2, when Flowers was out. Rookie Elijah Sarratt had two targets in his first NFL action Sunday, though promising rookie Ja’Kobi Lane remains on the IR.

That leaves Devontez Walker (five targets) as the WR3, with LaJohntay Wester making an occasional appearance, though his four targets were all during the first two tilts of the season.

Kickers and DST

Tyler Loop is the proud owner of the longest field goal through four weeks, converting a 64-yarder last Sunday. Last year as a sixth-round selection he was solid with an 88.2% conversion rate on 34 efforts, though he was only 1-of-4 (25%) from 50-plus yards.

In the last two games with their true QB1, Atlanta has allowed one sack and one interception. Baltimore has seven quarterback takedowns with three fumble recoveries and two picks, putting them in the merely average bucket for DFS purposes.

Atlanta Falcons Overview

This is our third consecutive dalliance with the Falcons in primetime and for those feeling frisky, they are also the Week 9 early game in Spain against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Linebacker Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) and defensive end Za’Darius Smith (concussion) are out, with cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr., defensive lineman Da’Shawn Hand and offensive lineman Cameron Williams placed on the IR in September.

Offensive tackle Jake Matthews (groin) is expected to play after practicing in full on Friday, while linebacker Divine Deablo and defensive end Samson Ebukam are questionable with hamstring issues, though they did play on Monday with the same maladies.

Quarterback

The return of Michael Penix Jr. has been massive, enabling the passing game to take some of the pressure away from The Robinsons. Though he does not post gaudy stats himself, the former Indiana Hoosier/Washington Husky is the straw that stirs the drink.

Penix suffered a torn left ACL last year, after tearing his right twice during his time with Indiana. He was healthy in his two seasons with Washington, leading the team to the National Championship game in his final campaign, where they lost to the Michigan Wolverines.

While he is mobile, his coaches at his last two stops have implored him to not run the ball unless absolutely necessary, though he does limit sacks and extend plays.

In his last 10 outings, Penix has topped 15.1 DKFPs only twice, with three games of eight or less. This makes him a less than enthralling multiplier-slot candidate, though he is someone we can consider being over the field on as a flex play.

Running Back

Brian Robinson Jr. has been on a heater, capped by a phenomenal trio of tuddies on Monday Night Football. This feat was accomplished on just 14 carries for 62 yards. He has four scores on the season and setting those aside, the NFL nomad has averaged a solid 11 carries for 48.5 yards through four games, with 50+ on the ground in his last trio of tilts.

Most running backs would be thrilled with that production, though the Atlanta RB1 is clearly Bijan Robinson (no relation), who earned Pro Bowl accolades in his second two seasons, capped by a First-Team All-NFL nod last year. He is vying for the honor of the most productive fantasy running back in the league, which is what makes his counterpart’s production so nutty.

Robinson has three games of 147+ combined yards, including 213 during Week 3’s Thursday Night Football, joining Derrick Henry, Shaun Alexander and Jerry Rice with three such primetime efforts. No other running back has seen the field for the Falcons.

Wide Receivers

Drake London has a 90% snap-share baseline and he has 16 targets from Penix, with Jahan Dotson rankings second with six. London has yet to find the endzone this season, though in his two Penix games he tallied 194 and 96 yards, so the math shows positive regression should be arriving soon.

Dotson will likely be on the field for two-thirds of the offensive action with fellow journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus getting a one-third share. Rookie Zachariah Branch is the main kick returner, though he and create-a-player Chris Blair have had similar offensive opportunities with around a dozen snaps each over the last three games.

Branch at least has two targets in each of the three most recent tilts, while all three of Blair’s were back in Week 2 with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at the helm.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts Sr. has five targets from Penix, with Austin Hooper seeing three and Charlie Woerner logging one. In 15 games with Penix starting, Pitts is averaging 5.1 targets. For perspective, in the last 22 games with Kirk Cousins as the starter, Pitts averaged 5.9 targets, though the two games we all remember were both in Tampa Bay when he racked up a combined 17 targets for 15 receptions, 237 yards and an absurd five touchdowns.

Kickers and DST

Nick Folk continues chugging along in his 19th NFL season, spending one year with the Arizona Hotshots of the AAF in 2019 when he was not able to secure a contract from any of the 32 NFL franchises. Folk led the NFL in accuracy in each of the last three seasons with a combined 96.2% success rate.

Atlanta has three takeaways, while the Ravens have one interception and one lost fumble. The Falcons have only seven sacks, though it is worth noting that Huntley has an 8.6% sack rate for his career.

NFL DFS Week 5 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Bijan Robinson: Captain, my Captain!
2. Drake London: Expect London calling for the ball in tonight’s clash (IYKYK).
3. Zay Flowers: Atlanta’s back seven has not been able to stop any above average wideouts with Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden and Chris Olave all topping 100 yards, with an honorable mention to Christian Watson who had 96.
4. Derrick Henry: Can he will his way to any sort of efficiency with a patchwork offensive line and a backup quarterback against a stingy defense leading the league with 2.7 yards per carry and 48.3 rushing yards per game allowed?
5. Tyler Huntley: Gets the nod over Penix, only because he should push towards 30 rushing yards. It should be noted that Atlanta limited Bryce Young and Tyler Shough to 11 yards on three carries.
6. Michael Penix Jr.: He has one touchdown in each of his two games, while his running backs have reached pay dirt eight times. Most books have him around +115 for o1.5 passing touchdowns.
7. Nick Folk: Veteran savvy and consistency, two of his three misses this season have been from 53 and 54 yards.
8. Tyler Loop: We need viable fantasy point per dollar options to help work in the heavy hitters above.
9. Jahan Dotson: Hard to believe he cracks the top-10, though if he converts one of his expected three targets for 30+ yards, he is intriguing on DraftKings ($3,600). Justice Hill is the FanDuel ($2,800) version of this gambit with Dotson at $5,200 on the blue site.
10. Brian Robinson Jr.: He cannot continue his torrid touchdown rate, but that does not have to end tonight. He and Bijan can be paired on the same entries.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Mark Andrews: In 24 games with Huntley, Andrews has 123 receptions for 1,378 yards and 10 touchdowns.
13. Justice Hill: Solid cheapie who should see 3-4 offensive opportunities, potentially more if the Ravens fall behind by multiple scores and the Falcons bottle up Henry.
14. Kyle Pitts Sr.: Tough click and The Masses agree enough that there is a 2% positive leverage on both sites for those rostering Pitts.
15. Atlanta DST: Homefield advantage and facing backups on the offensive line and at quarterback.
16. Baltimore DST: Will need a pick-six, scoop-and-score or a kick return for a touchdown to makes noise. Penix has a 1.6 INT% and 4.1% sack rate for his career.
17. LOTTERY TICKETS
18. Rashod Bateman: Awkward salary for a thin projection.
19. Austin Hooper: On par with Pitts from a fantasy point per dollar perspective.
20. Josh Cuevas and Nick Muse: Will play and is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings, even if they get one target for nothing, it will have been worth it. Cuevas benefits from Smythe’s injury while Muse has been on the field for 14, 17 and 17 snaps the last three games, though he has not been targeted yet.
21. Zachariah Branch: Main kick returner, likely to get a couple targets on limited snaps. On a fun note, his great uncle is Cliff Branch of the Oakland Raiders.
22. Olamide Zaccheaus: The role is dwindling, though if anything happens to Dotson, Zaccheaus will become the WR2.
23. LaJohntay Wester and Chris Moore: Both return kickoffs and Wester handles punts, each is live for an offensive opportunity, though snap-share will be in single-digits unless there is an injury to another wide receiver.
24. Matt Hibner, Devontez Walker and Elijah Sarratt: Will all see the field for Baltimore, though they project for 5.3 combined offensive opportunities.
25. Chris Blair and Charlie Woerner: The Atlanta version of the above, with 1.1 projected offensive opportunities.

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