Steelers vs Browns Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 4 TNF Top-10

Pittsburgh Steelers Overview

Running back Rico Dowdle will miss his second game with a toe injury and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Brandin Echols (concussion) are both questionable. Joey Porter Jr. was moved to Dallas in a Wednesday night trade, though he had not played this season as he was unhappy with contract negotiations and a “back issue” kept him on the injury report. Rookie guard Gennings Dunker (knee) joined tackle Jack Driscoll on the injured reserve after suffering a sprained MCL in practice.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers has indicated that this will be his final season, though we will likely still get some hemming and hawing near training camp next year, just so he can stay in the news cycle. It is still crazy to think that he won his third and fourth NFL MVP Awards in his age-37 and 38 seasons, back in 2020 and 2021.

We know he hates getting hit at this point in his career as the most sacked quarterback in history and his eight sacks this season rank 8th overall, though his 6.6% sack-rate is around his career average, though the 77 yards lost are the most in the league.

Interceptions of course are never his fault, though he should get hosannas for his 1.4 INT% which is the best in league history. He does not throw downfield and his 8.58 ADoT is 16th among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts and his 6.2 yards per attempt ranks 26th, with 7.1 being league average.

In the last three seasons, Rodgers has 180 rushing yards and one touchdown on 50 attempts, with kneel-downs counting as carries. Across Rodgers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs, he has posted single-digit efforts on six occasions.

Running Backs

Jaylen Warren is coming off a career-high 176 yards, colleting 127 on 16 carries and adding 49 more on three receptions. This was his first game where he was not in a split backfield with either Dowdle or Najee Harris. Cleveland is allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry, both of which rank 10th in the league.

Warren was on the field for 56 (90%) snaps Sunday, with Travis Homer and Lew Nichols III logging three each, while Eli Heidenreich was a healthy scratch. Homer has been in the league for eight seasons, splitting his first seven between Seattle and Chicago as an RB4/special teamer. He had one carry for zero yards on Sunday, with two for 16 yards in Week 2, with zero targets on the season.

Nichols is in his second year after being selected in the seventh-round of the 2023 NFL Draft from Central Michigan by Green Bay where he ended up on the injured reserve without seeing action, ultimately being released at the start of the season. He then was with Philadelphia on the practice squad, before the Steelers signed him during the 2025 preseason. Sunday was his first offensive action in the league and he had one carry for no gain.

Wideouts

DK Metcalf leads the team with 24 targets, followed by Roman Wilson at 18, getting six in each of the first three tilts. Rookie Germie Bernard had eight of his nine in Week 2 when Michael Pittman Jr. was out, while Pittman has eight, seeing five on Sunday.

It is very hard to have confidence in Bernard and Wilson, each of whom have made mistakes that saw them banished in-game to the shadow realm

Tight Ends

Now that Jonnu Smith is in Green Bay, the snap-share has really consolidated with Pat Freiermuth (67%) and Darnell Washington (64%), with cameos from Riley Nowakowski (7%) and Robert Tonyan (4%).

Last year the playing time was nearly even among the trio of tight ends, with some in-game fluctuation and Washington missing the last two games. Freiermuth and Smith led the way with 54 targets each, with Washington seeing a solid 43. The position saw 8.4 targets per game and we are seeing a similar proportion this season, though without the third wheel.

Washington signed a 4-year, $42 million extension in June, while Freiermuth saw a 4-year, $48.4 million extension back in 2024.

Through three games Freiermuth has a 62% route-rate, while Washington is at 35%. Both are in play and Washington’s $2,000 savings on DraftKings and $1,800 discount on FanDuel is appealing.

Kicker and DST

Chris Boswell is three-seasons removed from his First-Team All-Pro campaign, though the 36-year-old has a stellar 89.6% conversion rate on his field goals over the last 54 games, with the majority of his appearances being at outdoor venues. This year he is 6-of-8 with misses from 56 and 57 yards.

Blitzburgh has a solid eight sacks thus far, ranking seventh, while six takeaways ranks third overall. Cleveland has ceded the third most sacks with nine, accompanied by one turnover per tilt.

Cleveland Browns Overview

Starting center Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and guard Teven Jenkins (back) are both out tonight, along with wideout Tylan Wallace (knee).

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson has led the team to a pair of victories in the last two weeks, giving him a little cushion before Shedeur Sanders gets his chance under center. The last time the Browns won three straight games was at the end of the 2023 season, when the team secured four consecutive victories, with three of the games taking place in the “Factory of Sadness” as Joe Flacco was at the helm for his improbable return to relevance.

The Steelers held firm against Cooper Rush in a Week 1 spot-start and then the discombobulated Drake Maye did nothing in Week 2. On Sunday, Joe Burrow put up 282 yards and a trio of tuddies and tonight Waston gets a crack against the short-handed secondary.

In his current form, Watson is better than Rush or Maye, ranking 15th in QBR and 14th in the more traditional passer rating category. Tonight will be the 23rd start for Watson since being acquired by the Browns in 2021.

One other interesting stat is that Watson is fourth among quarterbacks with 105 rushing yards, trailing Lamar Jackson (124), Josh Allen (14) and Caleb Williams (107).

At best, Watson is a game-manager these days, relying on an incredibly young passing corps. At worst, he is susceptible to an in-game benching, though likely not tonight.

Running Backs

Quinshon Judkins had his snap-share fall to 51% on Sunday after 65% and 67% the first two weeks. Dylan Sampson is out, so it has been Raheim Sanders who has filled in on passing downs, with journeyman Michael Burton and former Denver reserve Jaleel McLaughlin making some guest appearances.

Judkins and Sanders each have nine targets, with McLaughlin getting one carry and one target. The team does not have a rushing touchdown this season and Judkins needs one to validate even his mediocre salary cap across the various DFS sites. Considering that the Browns are missing two starters on the offensive line, they may struggle in the facet of the game, especially if Watson is not able to keep things moving against the injury riddled Pittsburg secondary.

Wide Receivers

Rookies Denzel Boston (91%) and KC Concepcion Jr. (74%) have dominated the playing time over veteran Jerry Jeudy (57%). Conception was the 24th overall selection from Texas A&M, where he was First-Team All-SEC as a wideout and kick returner, having spent his first two seasons at North Carolina State. He leads the team with 20 targets, while Boston has 15, which is the third-most on the Browns.

Boston was a four-year player at the University of Washington, well behind Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk his first two seasons. In his last two years, he tallied 20 touchdown receptions in 25 games and flashed enough that Cleveland was willing to pick him early in the second-round.

The youngsters will be up and down this season, but it is clear that their time is now at the expense of Jeudy. Isaiah Bond has logged 16 snaps with only one target as the WR4.

Tight End

Harold Fannin Jr. has been outstanding and he is dominating the tight end position with an 84.9% snap-share in his second season, seeing 18 targets including nine on Sunday. Lake Whiteheart has been on the field for 41.3% of the offensive action, with three targets this season.

Kicker and DST

Andre Szmyt won the Lou Groza Award as a freshman at Syracuse, also earning unanimous First-Team All-American accolades. The rest of his college career was mostly mediocre, though it also included the messy pandemic shortened season in 2020. He went undrafted, getting a chance with Chicago though he was waived during the 2023 preseason. He tried out for the UFL next, then was signed to the Cleveland practice squad late in 2024. The Browns chose him to be the kicker for 2025 and he was decent with an 88.9% conversion rate on 27 field goals, including 5-of-6 from 50-plus yards.

NFL DFS Week 4 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jaylen Warren: It isn’t even close.
2. Harold Fannin Jr.: Both of his redzone looks came last week and he has a fair salary cap hit.
3. Deshaun Watson: Oh what a tangled web we weave.
4. Quinshon Judkins: Tonight he ends his seven-game touchdown drought, hopefully.
5. DK Metcalf: Just 11 receptions on 24 targets and one redzone look. He is better than this and only two of the 13 misses were drops.
6. KC Conception Jr.: Gets the nod over his fellow rookie for the $1,600 discount on DraftKings and $2,400 savings on the blue site. Returns punts for Cleveland.
7. Aaron Rodgers: Coming off a three touchdown performance, though he had as many in the six preceding games.
8. Chris Boswell: Excellent the last few seasons and no stranger to kicking outdoors. Rain is not expected until after the game concludes.
9. Denzel Boston: Putting to rest concerns that he was not worthy of a second-round selection.
10. Andre Szmyt: Kickers always profile well from a fantasy point per dollar perspective.
11. NFL DFS Week 4 TNF Showdown: And the Rest

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Secondary Targets

• Pat Freiermuth and Denzell Washington: It is only a matter of time before Washington rumbles down the field for a 30+ yard touchdown and his salary keeps him on par with Freiermuth. Both can be played on the same entry as Pittsburgh runs enough two-tight end formations and this duo has the position on lockdown.
• Pittsburgh DST: The secondary is shaky, but the Browns are missing two starting linemen and Watson is barely a top-20 quarterback, who may lose his starting job before Halloween.
• Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard: Things even out when accounting for salaries. Pittman is the most established, but this is his first season with Rodgers and he missed time in the offseason with injuries. Wilson had just 12 receptions in his first two seasons, despite being a third-round selection, so we could be dealing with fool’s gold. Bernard was a second-round selection this year, but he has already drawn the ire of Rodgers in two of the three games. Caveat Emptor.

Lottery Tickets

• Raheim Sanders: Has not done much yet, but at least he is the clear RB2 and passing down back, also returns kickoffs with Corley.
• Cleveland DST: The fans may actually be happy for a brief moment, before getting sucked back into the proverbial pit of despair.
• Jerry Jeudy: Meh.
• Blake Whiteheart and Robert Tonjan: Backup tight ends, woo hoo!
• Travis Homer: It will be quite the odessey for him to achieve fantasy relevance during tonight’s voyage.
• Ben Skowronek: Could sneak in with a catch or two, though he needs one of the youngsters to be banished to the doghouse, or Pittman to get dinged up.
• Lew Nichols, Jaleel McLaughlin, Isaiah Bond, Malachi Corley, Michael Burton, Kaden Wetjen and Eli Heidenreich: Should at least be active, though they project collectively for under four fantasy points. Corley shares kickoff return duties with Sanders. Wetjen returns punts for Pittsburgh and is joined by Heidenreich on kickoffs.

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