NHL DFS Strategy: Opening Night Chalk And The Pivots

Stokastic's NHL DFS Strategy Show opened its sixth season Tuesday with Josh Harris and Michael "Cliffy" Clifford on a four-game DraftKings main slate (7 p.m. ET lock: Canadiens at Maple Leafs, Rangers at Bruins, Canucks at Oilers, Blackhawks at Golden Knights; the 5 p.m. Panthers at Hurricanes game is off the main slate). The biggest number on the board: the Sims put Connor McDavid (EDM) at 45% projected ownership at $8,500, and both hosts want him anyway, because that unit will not cost this little past mid-October.

In Summary

• The Play: the Edmonton power play. McDavid (45% owned), Leon Draisaitl (40%) and Evan Bouchard (31%) are the chalk, and the show says pay it: the Sims have the McDavid-Draisaitl line as the top-two stack in 50% of lineups against 41% ownership.
• The Pivots: the Vegas top line at $18,600 (21% top-two stack, 13% ownership share) and Montreal's power play trio of Juraj Slafkovsky, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki at $19,700.
• The Fades: Gavin McKenna (TOR) at $6,500 for a 5.46 projection, and Boston's top line with Elias Lindholm, at negative leverage.
• The Filler: Vancouver's second line at $11,700 and 7% owned beside an Edmonton stack; Chicago's third line at 1% in large fields only.
• Check Before Lock: Nugent-Hopkins is out per the show and the projections predate it; the show also expects Kirill Marchenko on Toronto's top line while the file has him on the second. Confirm the lines before you build.
• Defense And Goalies: Bouchard first, Darren Raddysh second; Igor Shesterkin at $7,400 is the goalie both hosts landed on.

Watch The Video

Josh and Cliffy run the slate game by game, then defense and goalies: Watch on YouTube.

The Edmonton Power Play Is The Chalk, And The Show Still Wants It

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is out tonight, per the show, and the beat writers expect McDavid and Draisaitl split at even strength. The projections were published before that news and still count him, so the Edmonton stack numbers below are the pre-news numbers. The show's answer: stack the power play, which does not change, against a Vancouver penalty kill Josh called "godawful" late last season. The prices are the argument. McDavid is $8,500 and, as Cliffy put it, clears $10,000 every year; Zach Hyman ($6,700, 13% owned) is the quiet name on the unit.

The Sims agree: the McDavid-Draisaitl-Vasily Podkolzin line is the top-two stack in 50% of simulated lineups against 41% ownership, and Podkolzin at $4,000 is 37% owned himself. Josh's point about the chalk: a five-man Edmonton power play stack carries less cumulative ownership than a McDavid-Draisaitl-Bouchard three-man, so the more Oilers you add, the less you look like the field.

The Pivots: Vegas And Montreal Power Plays

Vegas. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev cost $18,600, down from the $21,000 range Josh remembers from last season. The Sims have it as the top-two stack in 21% of lineups against 13% ownership. The story is Stone: when he plays, the Vegas power play is a different unit, and Chicago's penalty kill "fell off a cliff." Shea Theodore ($5,400, 6%) is on the top unit, so bump him up in your own Sims runs.

Montreal. Slafkovsky, Caufield and Suzuki cost $19,700 combined, and Caufield ($7,100, 17% owned) carries the third-highest projection on the slate. Suzuki has assisted on 60% of Caufield's power play goals over two years. Skip Chris Kreider, take Slafkovsky. The cheap version is Ivan Demidov at $4,400 and 3% ownership, who Cliffy said "should swap salaries" with McKenna.

Build against the same ownership numbers the show used. The same Sims that put McDavid at 45% ownership and the Vegas top line at 13% are open for tonight's slate, with the top stacks and goalie data. Code OPENER takes 10% off your first NHL package.

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Toronto, Boston And The Rangers: Where The Hosts Split

Toronto comes down to Kirill Marchenko, acquired Monday and waiting on a visa. If he plays, both hosts go to the top line with Auston Matthews ($8,200, 13% owned) and Jack Roslovic ($4,600). The Sims file at show time still had Marchenko on the second line, so check the lines before lock. What neither host will do is pay McKenna: $6,500 for a 5.46 projection is "such a bad value," per Cliffy.

Boston is the opposite problem. David Pastrnak ($7,800, 22% owned) and JJ Peterka ($4,100, 21%) are both worth it; Peterka on the top line and top power play is "$1,500 too cheap," per Cliffy. The issue is Lindholm ($4,000, 21% owned) at top-line center, a fit Josh called unworkable; the Sims agree, a 16% top-two stack against 21% ownership. Stack the Boston power play without him, or drop to Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie and Casey Mittelstadt at $12,700 and 9% owned.

The Rangers split the hosts. Josh takes the top line around Mika Zibanejad ($6,200, 5% owned), his top-leverage Ranger "by a wide margin." Cliffy takes J.T. Miller, Pavel Dorofeyev ($5,400, 13% owned) and Oliver Bjorkstrand at $14,600, betting Miller bounces back with Charlie McAvoy suspended.

Vancouver And Chicago: The Cheap Road Dogs

Josh fades the Canucks outright: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk and Jonathan Lekkerimaki are $12,200 with a 7% top-two stack rate against 14% ownership. Cliffy's Sims run said the opposite, 33% DeBrusk and 28% Pettersson across his top 300 lineups, because DeBrusk at $4,800 matches McDavid's 2.15 value score. Both agree the cheap two-man beside an Edmonton stack is Vancouver's second line of Brock Boeser, Marco Rossi and Liam Ohgren at $11,700 and 7% owned.

Chicago is a large-field play only. Without Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks' power play scoring drops 40%, and Vegas rarely takes penalties. The Frank Nazar, Ryan Donato and Nick Lardis third line is 1% owned at $11,100. Josh's pricing rule: he would rather play Anton Frondell at $5,800 than McKenna at $6,500.

Defense And Goalies: Bouchard, Then Shesterkin On The Cheap

Bouchard projects for 13.81 DraftKings points, 2.33 more than any other defenseman, at a 2.06 points-per-thousand value Cliffy said "you almost never see" at $6,700. He is 31% owned. Play him anyway. Then Raddysh ($5,700, 16%), a shooter on Toronto's top power play; Lane Hutson ($5,300, 13%) inside a Canadiens stack; Noah Dobson ($5,000, 17%) as the one-off with a shot-block floor. Under $5,000 it is Filip Hronek (VAN, $4,400, 12% owned), Cliffy's favorite in the range.

Neither host wants Tristan Jarry ($8,400, 18% owned); if you pay up, it is Hart ($8,300, 20%). But both landed on Shesterkin ($7,400, 16%) against a Bruins team Cliffy expects to be worse than last year, a cheap-win spot that "sticks out like a sore thumb." Buy the win, not the saves: 35-save games fell from 349 to 182 last year after the NHL changed how it tracks shots.

Putting It Together

Build around the Edmonton power play while it costs this little, buy leverage with Vegas or Montreal at the same salary, and fill with Vancouver or Chicago depth. Check Marchenko's visa and the Edmonton lines before 7 p.m. ET.

New to Stokastic? Build your own opening night lineups with the same ownership projections, top stacks and goalie data from this show. Use code OPENER at checkout and the first NHL package is 10% off.

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Nothing here is financial advice.