NFL Week 3 DFS Picks: Stack Rio While The Field Buys Gibbs

Updated Sunday, September 27, 8:05 a.m. ET; every projection and ownership number is the Stokastic Sims run published overnight, ownership at 1:37 a.m. ET Sunday; salaries, lines and injury tags as of Sunday morning.

The field is buying Gibbs and Walker. The best game on the board has Lamar Jackson at 5.4%. That game is Ravens vs Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, the highest total of the week at 53.5, and the bring-back, Javonte Williams, sits at 4.2%. Three DraftKings slates lock Sunday, the 13-game Main, the Early Only with the nine 1 p.m. ET games and the Afternoon Only with the four 4:05 and 4:25 games, and each one below gets its own stack table, value board, chalk read and legal $50,000 build.

The market's read on the two games this article leans on hardest is on the Ravens vs Cowboys scripts page and the Chargers vs Bills scripts page; the stacks below start from those prices.

The Quick Answer

• Main: stack Ravens vs Cowboys; the richest game DraftKings priced ($43,300 across its six top skill salaries) has Lamar Jackson at 5.4% owned.
• Early Only: pay for Josh Allen; he projects 24.0 points, second on the slate to Jahmyr Gibbs' 26.2, at 12.2% owned to Gibbs' 46.5%.
• Afternoon Only: carry none of the three 40% running backs; McCaffrey, Jeanty and Henry hold 126.5 ownership points between them, and Lamar at 15.1% is the leverage.

Week 3 offer. Every projection and ownership number in this article comes from the Stokastic NFL Sims, and code WEEK3 takes 10% off your first payment on any weekly or monthly Stokastic NFL or All Access package: Get the Sims.

Main: Rio Is Cheap At Quarterback

The field is treating the Rio game as a running back game. Derrick Henry carries 12.2% and CeeDee Lamb 12.7%, while the two quarterbacks, who project 22.5 and 20.4 points, sit at 5.4% and 4.8%. These are the Rio pieces as the Sims price them.

Javonte Williams is the piece that makes the stack cheap: 16.3 points, and the Sims' optimal lineups use him half again as often as the field does, 6.3% to 4.2%. Zay Flowers' $6,900 is the sixth salary in the game, but his hamstring goes to a pregame workout in Rio and he projects at zero, which hands the second Ravens receiver slot to Bateman. Here is the whole board, ranked by how much salary DraftKings put in each game.

Combined ownership adds the Sims' projected ownership of every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end in the game, defenses excluded; across the whole slate, defenses included, ownership sums to 900% because a lineup has nine slots.

Jets-Lions and Chiefs-Dolphins are where the money went: Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.8%), Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III, Travis Kelce (14.7%) and Patrick Mahomes (7.8%) push those two games to 115% and 90% combined on cheaper salary totals than Rio. Josh Allen is the quiet third read: the slate's top quarterback projection at 24.0 points in a 50.5-total game, 6.5% owned, with Dalton Kincaid at 4.9% and Khalil Shakir at 4.7% behind him. DJ Moore is a game-time decision with his shoulder, per head coach Joe Brady, and projects 11.5 points at 2.6%, which is why the Bills pieces here are Kincaid and Shakir.

Main: Salary Relief Under $5,000

A $43,300 game does not fit in a lineup unless the rest of the roster is cheap, and the cheap part of this board is tight ends again. Quarterbacks are excluded because none of the builds below punt the position; our DFS punt plays guide draws the line between a punt and a value.

Andrews is the best salary on the board, 13.6 points at $4,400, 3.1 points per $1,000, and the second-highest projected tight end on the slate behind Trey McBride ($6,700, 17.0). The field has cooled on him, 12.9% now sits behind Kelce and Schultz at 14.7% each, while the optimals use him at 14.3%, above the field, so he still belongs in a Ravens stack. Dalton Schultz is the same story one tier down, 12.8 points at $4,200 with Nico Collins out a second straight week with his hamstring. Bateman is the second Ravens receiver by default now, and the field has found him at 13.0%, still fair for a 13.3-point $4,700 slot in a 53.5-total game. Kelce and Worthy are how a Walker fade still gets exposure to a 10.5-point favorite. Fannin at 4.5% is the tight end the field forgot, 9.9 points at $4,000.

Main: Where The Field Over-Clusters

Two players are chalk: Gibbs and Walker. Gibbs at $8,800 projects 26.2 points, the top number on the slate, and the field has him at 39.1%; Walker at $7,400 projects 22.1 for a 10.5-point favorite and sits at 32.7%; the Sims' optimals use both 5 to 6 points less than the field does. The third cluster is new since Friday: Jaylen Warren at $5,700, 17.3 points at 24.4% owned with Rico Dowdle out, and the optimals sit 7 points under the field on him, the widest gap on the slate. Parker Washington at $6,000, 16.1 points at 17.0%, is the receiver the field is 3 points ahead of the optimals on. Quarterback is flat, Tyler Shough leading at 13.6%, Mahomes 7.8%, Allen 6.5%, Joe Burrow at 1.6%, and Deshaun Watson at $4,700 is the one the Sims like more than the field does, 16.6 points at 3.1% owned. The read, with how to win DFS tournaments as the 101: own the Rio game and the Bills quarterback the field is not paying for, and let Walker and Gibbs carry their 71.8 combined ownership points without you.

Main: One $50,000 Build

A legal DraftKings roster (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, FLEX, DST) built only from salaries on this board, with Sunday morning's projected ownership next to each slot. It is illustrative, not optimal; the Sims will produce hundreds of better-optimized versions before lock.

Five of the nine slots come from Rio: Jackson double-stacked with Bateman and Andrews, Lamb and Javonte Williams as the two-piece bring-back. That is a tournament shape, all ceiling; size it to your contest, not to cash games. Breece Hall at $6,400 is the Jets back the field skips while it buys Gibbs on the other sideline, 16.4 points at 8.9% owned, priced where the optimals use him. Jaylen Warren at $5,700 is the roster's one questionable tag, a shoulder, and Adam Schefter reports he is expected to play; with Rico Dowdle out with his toe the field has moved to Warren at 24.4%, so if he sits, Quinshon Judkins ($5,500, 3.5%) drops in for $200 less. Worthy is the Chiefs exposure without Walker. The Titans are cap math: the Giants ($3,400, 2.5%) project the same 7.8 points for $1,000 more, and that $1,000 is most of what pays for Lamb over George Pickens. The nine slots project to 136.8 Sims points, add up to 103.4 cumulative ownership points, and Warren is the only slot above 15%.

The Main slate build in the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator, 250-entry contest, 20% to first.

Run through the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator against a 250-entry DraftKings contest paying 20% of the field, this build carries a Sim ROI of 28.1%. It cashes 36.4% of the time, finishes in the top 10% in 7.3% of simulations and wins the contest outright in 0.7%, on an average of 136.8 points. Total ownership is 97.6%, and the simulator found no duplicate of it in the field. The ROI comes from the Rio pieces: a three-man Baltimore stack with the Javonte Williams bring-back that almost nobody else is rostering, wrapped around Hall and Andrews at fair prices; Warren's 24.4% is the one slot the field now shares.

Early: Allen Over Gibbs

Same salaries, nine games, thicker chalk: Gibbs climbs to 46.5% on this slate and Walker to 36.0%.

Chargers at Bills is the early slate's lead read because it is the highest total on the slate at 50.5 and the field is building the Lions game instead. Jets-Lions carries 156% combined ownership, Gibbs at 46.5%, St. Brown at 28.6% and Garrett Wilson at 18.3%, with Jared Goff at 7.9% for the quarterback of a 47.5-total game. Chargers-Bills carries 89%, a third of it Allen at 12.2% and James Cook III at 14.3%; Kincaid at 8.7%, Shakir at 6.6%, Ladd McConkey at 12.4% and Justin Herbert at 5.7% are a stack the field has not finished building, and the optimals use Allen slightly more than the field does, rare for an $8,000 quarterback. Bengals-Steelers has filled in on the Pittsburgh side, Warren at 25.3%, while Burrow at 4.2%, Ja'Marr Chase at 15.1% and Chase Brown at 16.3% stay quiet. Two low rows are low for a reason. Jayden Daniels is out with his elbow, so the Commanders belong to Marcus Mariota, and Jaxson Dart's meniscus put him on injured reserve, which makes Jameis Winston the Giants' quarterback against a Titans defense the field owns at 13.5%.

Early: Cheap Bills And Browns

The cheap tight ends carry the early slate too, joined by two Browns receivers.

Shakir is the row that matters. At $4,800 he is the cheapest way into the slate's highest total, 11.0 points at 6.6% owned, and with Moore a game-time decision and Keon Coleman questionable with an ankle, the Bills' receiver targets narrow to him and Kincaid. Kelce at 20.2% is the most-owned tight end on the slate, and the field is right about the projection, 13.4 points at $4,500, but a Chiefs stack without Walker does not need him; Worthy gives the same game at less than half the ownership. Malik Washington at $4,200 is the Dolphins bring-back, 11.1 points at 9.0%. Boston and Concepcion are the low-owned way into a game the field has at 77%; Jalen Coker is questionable with an ankle, in line to play per Ian Rapoport, and carries 11.3%. Gadsden at $3,500 is the only healthy tight end on the Chargers' roster and the cheap Chargers piece in an Allen build.

Early: Two Backs Are The Chalk

Gibbs at 46.5% is the most-owned player on any slate this week, and Walker at 36.0% is next. St. Brown at 28.6%, Warren at 25.3%, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 23.3%, Parker Washington at 22.9% and Kelce at 20.2% round out the players at 20% or higher, and Smith-Njigba's number is the one the Daniels news made, Seattle a 7.5-point favorite against a backup. Jonathan Taylor is the mirror of Walker, 20.1 points at $7,600 and 17.3% with the optimals a shade above the field, a fair price rather than a fade. Quarterback thins out fast, Mahomes at 12.7%, Allen 12.2%, Trevor Lawrence 11.8%, then a cliff: Goff 7.9%, Drake Maye 7.4%, Watson 4.2%, Burrow 4.2%. Brown, Hall and Chuba Hubbard replace Gibbs and Walker: they project within 6 points of Walker for $800 to $1,300 less and sit at 16.3%, 11.9% and 13.3%.

Early: One $49,900 Build

Same rules: illustrative, tournament-shaped, early-slate salaries only.

Four slots come from Chargers at Bills: Allen with Kincaid and Shakir, McConkey as the bring-back. The three running backs are the Gibbs and Walker replacement: Brown, Hall and Hubbard project 18.1, 16.4 and 17.4 points and none is higher than 16.3% owned, while Gibbs and Walker, whom this roster does not carry, hold 82.5 ownership points between them. Hall is the Jets piece in the game the field stacks from the Lions side. Washington is the last receiver because he is the highest receiver projection under $4,300 that is not a Chiefs player, and this build has no Chiefs by design. The Giants at $3,400 and 5.7% project the same 7.8 points as the Titans, and the $1,000 would come out of McConkey, which breaks the bring-back. The roster spends $49,900, leaves $100 on the table, projects to 132.0 Sims points and adds up to 103.9 cumulative ownership points.

The Early Only build in the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator, 250-entry contest, 20% to first.

The same simulator, same 250-entry contest, gives this build a Sim ROI of 12.9%: it cashes 33.1% of the time, lands in the top 10% in 5.6% and wins 0.7%, averaging 132.0 points with 109.2% total ownership and no duplicates. Lower than the main build for a reason: paying for Allen is the right side of the chalk, but on a nine-game slate there are fewer places to hide, so the edge is smaller and the field's Gibbs and Walker builds outscore it in the sims where the chalk hits.

Afternoon: None Of The 40% Backs

Four games, 900 ownership points, and every game carries more than 165% combined ownership. The read is not which game to stack but which players inside the stacked games the field is skipping.

Rio is the most-built game on the slate and still the lead read, because the field is building it from the wrong slots. Henry carries 39.3%, Lamb 32.8%, Andrews 27.3%, George Pickens 27.1% and Bateman 26.7%; Lamar Jackson, who projects 22.5 points, the top quarterback number on the slate, sits at 15.1%, and the optimals use him at 18.3%, more than the field does. Dak Prescott is 14.3% and Javonte Williams 22.7% on the Dallas side. Raiders at Saints is a Saints game: Tyler Shough is the most-owned quarterback on the slate at 21.0%, Chris Olave is 36.3% and Devaughn Vele 22.9%; Travis Etienne Jr. came off the injury report Friday, and Brock Bowers, questionable on his knee, is expected to make his season debut at 11.5%. Cardinals at 49ers is McCaffrey at 47.7% and Trey McBride at 25.2%, with Mike Evans, questionable with a hip, intending to play at 14.7%, which leaves the 49ers' receiver ownership at George Kittle at 20.2% and Deebo Samuel Sr. at 17.0%. Vikings at Buccaneers is the least-built game at 168%, and Kyler Murray, cleared from concussion protocol, is the cheapest quarterback path at $5,100 and 14.2%.

Afternoon: The Cowboys Are The Cheap Side

Every sub-$5,000 row the Sims project at 8 points or more fits in one table here, and the column to read is the gap between the projection and the field.

Andrews at 27.3% is the most-owned tight end on any slate this week and still the right tight end for a Ravens stack; the field is only slightly ahead of the number. Bateman at 26.7% is the same shape at receiver, the Flowers replacement the whole slate has found. The two Cowboys are the leverage inside the same game: Jake Ferguson at $4,100 projects 8.5 points at 7.2% owned, the lowest ownership of any tight end here with a projection above 8, and Ryan Flournoy at $3,800 slipped to 7.8 points and off the table, still the cheap Dallas receiver at 11.6%. Kamara at $4,800 and 8.3% is the Saints back the Sims have at 10.9 points with Etienne, off the injury report, playing. Hockenson at $3,200 is the cheapest tight end path into the least-built game, and Cade Otton at $3,100 is the Buccaneers side of it at 12.5%.

Afternoon: Three Backs, One Cluster

McCaffrey at 47.7%, Jeanty at 39.5% and Henry at 39.3% add up to 126.5 ownership points across three roster slots, and the field is not wrong about any of them; it is just all in the same place. The tournament shape is a roster that carries zero of the three, because it separates from the field in three slots at once. Aaron Jones Sr. at 16.8% is the fourth back the field likes, and Kevin O'Connell said Friday his knee will not keep him out. Javonte Williams at $6,700 and 22.7% and Bucky Irving at $6,300 and 19.6% project within 4.5 points of Jeanty at 42.3 combined ownership points against the big three's 126.5. At quarterback, Shough at 21.0% is the cluster and Jackson is the answer; at receiver, Olave at 36.3% and Lamb at 32.8% are the clusters and Justin Jefferson at 30.9% in the least-built game is the pivot that still projects 18.4 points, and the NFL DFS primer covers why a four-game slate punishes lineups that look like the field's.

Afternoon: One $49,800 Build

Same rules: illustrative, tournament-shaped, afternoon salaries only.

Five slots come from Rio: Jackson with Bateman and Andrews, Javonte Williams and Ferguson as the two-piece Dallas bring-back. The Cowboys tight end in the flex is the roster's lowest-owned slot at 7.2% and the reason the build can afford Jefferson, the pivot off Olave and Lamb. Irving is the Buccaneers side of the least-built game, and the roster carries none of McCaffrey, Henry, Jeanty or Jones, which is the whole point. Deebo Samuel at $5,300 is the 49ers exposure that does not cost McCaffrey money, 17.0% with Evans intending to play. The Saints at $3,300 project 7.0 points at 12.7%, 0.2 more than the 49ers for $300 less. The roster spends $49,800, leaves $200 on the table, projects to 125.8 Sims points and adds up to 179.2 cumulative ownership points, which is what a four-game slate does to the arithmetic; the number that matters is that none of the three 40% backs is on it.

Two practical notes before you copy any build. Every row predates the inactives: the early lists land at 11:30 a.m. ET, the 4:05 games' at 2:35 p.m. and the 4:25 games', Rio included, at 2:55 p.m.; our NFL DFS late swap guide covers what to do once the early games start. The tagged names on this page are all questionable: Warren (shoulder, expected to play), Flowers (hamstring, pregame workout), Moore (shoulder, game-time decision), Coleman (ankle), Coker (ankle, in line to play), Evans (hip, intends to play) and Bowers (knee, expected to debut); Etienne and Jones came off their reports Friday; Collins and Dowdle are out, Daniels is out and Dart is on injured reserve. The same names carry different salaries on FanDuel; our DraftKings vs. FanDuel NFL DFS comparison covers the difference.

The Afternoon Only build in the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator, 250-entry contest, 20% to first.

Against a 250-entry contest paying 20% of the field, the simulator puts this build at a Sim ROI of 7.7%: it cashes 30.9% of the time, hits the top 10% in 5.4% and wins 0.7%, on 125.8 points. Total ownership is 184.8% on a four-game slate, which is the price of skipping all three 40% backs: the roster is chalkier at receiver to fund the fade, and the simulator says the fade still pays, at a thinner edge than Friday's now that the field has found Bateman and Jefferson.

What The Sims Say Now That The Data Is Live

Every number on this page is the Stokastic Sims run published overnight into Sunday, projections at 1:34 a.m. ET and ownership at 1:37 a.m. ET, the same set that feeds NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, with floor, ceiling, optimal rate and leverage for every player on all three slates. The Sims re-run as the tags clear, so check the DataHub after the inactives; how to use NFL DFS Sims is the walkthrough and the NFL DFS hub carries the daily output.

One Game, Three Prices

The slate you enter sets the price of every read before you pick a player, and the Rio game proves it: Lamar Jackson carries the same 22.5-point projection on the Main and the Afternoon at nearly three times the ownership on the smaller slate, while the field spends its running back money on Walker, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Henry and Jeanty depending on which slate it is looking at. The best price on the page is Javonte Williams on the Main slate, a $6,700 bring-back in the highest total of the week that fewer than one lineup in 20 is rostering. What is left is Sunday's news: Flowers' pregame workout decides whether Bateman stays the second Ravens receiver, Warren's shoulder decides the Main build's second back, and the Rio inactives do not land until 2:55 p.m. ET, which leaves every Ravens and Cowboys slot open to a late swap.

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