NFL Week 3 DFS Picks: Stack Rio While The Field Buys Gibbs

Updated Friday, September 25, 8:14 a.m. ET; every projection and ownership number is the Stokastic Sims run published Thursday night; salaries, lines and injury tags as of Friday morning.

The field is buying Gibbs and Walker. The best game on the board has Lamar Jackson at 4.5%. That game is Ravens vs Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, the highest total of the week at 53.5, and the bring-back, Javonte Williams, sits at 3.9%. Three DraftKings slates lock Sunday, the 13-game Main, the Early Only with the nine 1 p.m. ET games and the Afternoon Only with the four 4:05 and 4:25 games, and each one below gets its own stack table, value board, chalk read and legal $50,000 build.

The market's read on the two games this article leans on hardest is on the Ravens vs Cowboys scripts page and the Chargers vs Bills scripts page; the stacks below start from those prices.

The Quick Answer

• Main: stack Ravens vs Cowboys; the richest game DraftKings priced ($43,300 across its six top skill salaries) has Lamar Jackson at 4.5% owned.
• Early Only: pay for Josh Allen; he ties Jahmyr Gibbs for the slate's top projection at 25.6 points, at 15.1% owned to Gibbs' 44.0%.
• Afternoon Only: carry none of the three 40% running backs; McCaffrey, Henry and Jeanty hold 121.5 ownership points between them, and Lamar at 14.0% is the leverage.

Week 3 offer. Every projection and ownership number in this article comes from the Stokastic NFL Sims, and code WEEK3 takes 10% off your first payment on any weekly or monthly Stokastic NFL or All Access package: Get the Sims.

Main: Rio Is Cheap At Quarterback

The field is treating the Rio game as a running back game. Derrick Henry carries 13.4% and CeeDee Lamb 11.1%, while the two quarterbacks, who project 22.4 and 19.8 points, sit under 5% each. These are the Rio pieces as the Sims price them.

Javonte Williams is the piece that makes the stack cheap: 16.6 points, and the Sims' optimal lineups use him at nearly twice the rate the field does. Zay Flowers' $6,900 is the sixth salary in the game, but he did not practice Thursday with a hamstring and projects at zero, which hands the second Ravens receiver slot to Bateman. Here is the whole board, ranked by how much salary DraftKings put in each game.

Combined ownership adds the Sims' projected ownership of every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end in the game, defenses excluded; across the whole slate, defenses included, ownership sums to 900% because a lineup has nine slots.

Jets-Lions and Chiefs-Dolphins are where the money went: Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.1%), Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III, Travis Kelce (15.5%) and Patrick Mahomes (11.2%) push those two games to 99% and 100% combined on cheaper salary totals than Rio. Josh Allen is the quiet third read: the slate's top projection at 25.6 points in a 50.5-total game, 8.9% owned, with Dalton Kincaid at 4.9% and Khalil Shakir at 4.3% behind him. DJ Moore sat out Thursday with a shoulder and is questionable, which is why the Bills pieces here are Kincaid and Shakir.

Main: Salary Relief Under $5,000

A $43,300 game does not fit in a lineup unless the rest of the roster is cheap, and the cheap part of this board is tight ends again. Quarterbacks are excluded because none of the builds below punt the position; our DFS punt plays guide draws the line between a punt and a value.

Andrews is the best salary on the board, 14.0 points at $4,400, 3.2 points per $1,000, and the second-highest projected tight end on the slate behind Trey McBride ($6,700, 17.6). The field knows it, 17.4% is the top tight end ownership on the slate, and he still belongs in a Ravens stack because the optimals use him at the same rate. Dalton Schultz is the same story one tier down, 13.0 points at $4,200 with Nico Collins questionable after missing Thursday's practice and projecting at zero. Bateman is the second Ravens receiver by default now, and 8.1% is cheap for a $4,700 slot in a 53.5-total game. Kelce and Worthy are how a Walker fade still gets exposure to a 10.5-point favorite. Fannin at 4.1% is the tight end the field forgot, 10.3 points at $4,000.

Main: Where The Field Over-Clusters

Two players are chalk: Walker and Gibbs. Walker at $7,400 projects 22.2 points for a 10.5-point favorite and the field has him at 34.4%; Gibbs at $8,800 projects 25.6 and sits at 33.5%; the Sims' optimals use both less than the field does, Walker especially. The third cluster is Parker Washington at $6,000, 16.2 points at 23.3% owned, the widest gap between field and optimals at receiver on the slate. Quarterback is flat, Tyler Shough leading at 11.4%, Mahomes 11.2%, Allen 8.9%, Joe Burrow at 1.6%, and Deshaun Watson at $4,700 is the one the Sims like more than the field does, 17.5 points at 2.1% owned. The read, with how to win DFS tournaments as the 101: own the Rio game and the Bills quarterback the field is not paying for, and let Walker and Gibbs carry their 67.9 combined ownership points without you.

Main: One $50,000 Build

A legal DraftKings roster (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, FLEX, DST) built only from salaries on this board, with Thursday night's projected ownership next to each slot. It is illustrative, not optimal; the Sims will produce hundreds of better-optimized versions before lock.

Five of the nine slots come from Rio: Jackson double-stacked with Bateman and Andrews, Lamb and Javonte Williams as the two-piece bring-back. That is a tournament shape, all ceiling; size it to your contest, not to cash games. Breece Hall at $6,400 is the Jets back the field skips while it buys Gibbs on the other sideline, 16.5 points at 5.9% owned, and the optimals use him more than the field does. Jaylen Warren at $5,700 is the roster's one questionable tag, limited Thursday with a shoulder while Rico Dowdle did not practice with a toe and projects at zero; if Warren sits, Quinshon Judkins ($5,500, 3.9%) drops in for $200 less. Worthy is the Chiefs exposure without Walker. The Titans are cap math: the Giants ($3,400, 3.0%) project 0.3 points more for $1,000 more, and that $1,000 is most of what pays for Lamb over George Pickens. The nine slots project to 136.2 Sims points, add up to 90.5 cumulative ownership points, and no slot is above 18%.

Early: Allen Over Gibbs

Same salaries, nine games, thicker chalk: Gibbs climbs to 44.0% on this slate and Walker to 36.5%.

Chargers at Bills is the early slate's lead read because it is the highest total on the slate at 50.5 and the field is building the Lions game instead. Jets-Lions carries 138% combined ownership, Gibbs at 44.0%, St. Brown at 25.4% and Garrett Wilson at 13.4%, with Jared Goff at 7.9% for the quarterback of a 47.5-total game. Chargers-Bills carries 94%, a third of it Allen at 15.1% and James Cook III at 16.0%; Kincaid at 9.7%, Shakir at 5.8%, Ladd McConkey at 10.0% and Justin Herbert at 5.0% are a stack the field has not finished building, and the optimals use Allen more than the field does, rare for an $8,000 quarterback. Bengals-Steelers is the other quiet game: Burrow at 3.9%, Ja'Marr Chase at 13.2% and Chase Brown at 16.1%. Two low rows are low for a reason. Jayden Daniels is out with his elbow, so the Commanders belong to Marcus Mariota, and Jaxson Dart's meniscus put him on injured reserve, which makes Jameis Winston the Giants' quarterback against a Titans defense the field owns at 14.5%.

Early: Cheap Bills And Browns

The cheap tight ends carry the early slate too, joined by two Browns receivers.

Shakir is the row that matters. At $4,800 he is the cheapest way into the slate's highest total, 10.9 points at 5.8% owned, and with Moore questionable and Keon Coleman questionable with an ankle, the Bills' receiver targets narrow to him and Kincaid. Kelce at 20.0% is the most-owned tight end on the slate, and the field is right about the projection, 13.8 points at $4,500, but a Chiefs stack without Walker does not need him; Worthy gives the same game at half the ownership. Malik Washington at $4,200 is the Dolphins bring-back, 10.8 points at 7.3%. Boston and Concepcion are the low-owned way into a game the field has at 79%; Jalen Coker did not practice Thursday with an ankle and carries 14.0% anyway. Gadsden at $3,500 is the only healthy tight end on the Chargers' roster and the cheap Chargers piece in an Allen build.

Early: Two Backs Are The Chalk

Gibbs at 44.0% is the most over-owned player on any slate this week, and Walker at 36.5% is next. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and St. Brown at 25.4% each, Parker Washington at 24.4%, Jonathan Taylor at 24.1% and Kelce at 20.0% round out the players at 20% or higher, and Smith-Njigba's number is the one the Daniels news made, Seattle a 7.5-point favorite against a backup. Taylor is the mirror of Walker, 20.6 points at $7,600 with the optimals close to the field, a fair price rather than a fade. Quarterback thins out fast, Allen and Mahomes at 15.1% each, Trevor Lawrence at 12.1%, then a cliff: Drake Maye 4.9%, Watson 4.6%, Burrow 3.9%. Brown, Hall and Chuba Hubbard replace Gibbs and Walker: they project within 6 points of Walker for $800 to $1,300 less and sit at 16.1%, 10.1% and 11.5%.

Early: One $49,900 Build

Same rules: illustrative, tournament-shaped, early-slate salaries only.

Four slots come from Chargers at Bills: Allen with Kincaid and Shakir, McConkey as the bring-back. The three running backs are the Gibbs and Walker replacement: Brown, Hall and Hubbard project 17.8, 16.5 and 16.7 points and none is higher than 16.1% owned, while Gibbs and Walker, whom this roster does not carry, hold 80.5 ownership points between them. Hall is the Jets piece in the game the field stacks from the Lions side. Washington is the last receiver because he is the highest receiver projection under $4,300 that is not a Chiefs player, and this build has no Chiefs by design. The Giants at $3,400 and 6.5% project 0.3 points more than the Titans, and the $1,000 would come out of McConkey, which breaks the bring-back. The roster spends $49,900, leaves $100 on the table, projects to 133.1 Sims points and adds up to 100.1 cumulative ownership points.

Afternoon: None Of The 40% Backs

Four games, 900 ownership points, and every game carries more than 175% combined ownership. The read is not which game to stack but which players inside the stacked games the field is skipping.

Rio is the most-built game on the slate and still the lead read, because the field is building it from the wrong slots. Henry carries 40.3%, Lamb 31.9%, Andrews 29.9%, George Pickens 24.6% and Bateman 22.4%; Lamar Jackson, who projects 22.4 points, the top quarterback number on the slate, sits at 14.0%, and the optimals use him more than the field does. Dak Prescott is 12.8% and Javonte Williams 21.3% on the Dallas side. Raiders at Saints is a Saints game: Tyler Shough is the most-owned quarterback on the slate at 23.1%, Chris Olave is 37.3% and Devaughn Vele 23.9%; Travis Etienne Jr. was limited Thursday with a hamstring, and Brock Bowers, practicing on his knee, is questionable at 14.0%. Cardinals at 49ers is McCaffrey at 41.5% and Trey McBride at 27.8%, with Mike Evans questionable after missing Thursday's practice with a hip, which pushes the 49ers' receiver ownership to Deebo Samuel Sr. at 18.1% and George Kittle at 16.6%. Vikings at Buccaneers is the least-built game at 177%, and Kyler Murray, cleared from concussion protocol, is the cheapest quarterback path at $5,100 and 13.8%.

Afternoon: The Cowboys Are The Cheap Side

Every sub-$5,000 row the Sims project at 8 points or more fits in one table here, and the column to read is the gap between the projection and the field.

Andrews at 29.9% is the most-owned tight end on any slate this week and still the right tight end for a Ravens stack; the field is only slightly ahead of the number. Bateman at 22.4% is the same shape at receiver, the Flowers replacement the whole slate has found. The two Cowboys are the leverage inside the same game: Jake Ferguson at $4,100 projects 8.3 points at 7.7% owned, the lowest ownership of any tight end here with a projection above 8, and Ryan Flournoy at $3,800 is the cheap Dallas receiver at 13.0%. Kamara at $4,800 and 4.1% pays if Etienne's hamstring keeps him out; the Sims have him at 9.6 points with Etienne playing. Hockenson at $3,200 is the cheapest tight end path into the least-built game.

Afternoon: Three Backs, One Cluster

McCaffrey at 41.5%, Henry at 40.3% and Jeanty at 39.7% add up to 121.5 ownership points across three roster slots, and the field is not wrong about any of them; it is just all in the same place. The tournament shape is a roster that carries zero of the three, because it separates from the field in three slots at once. Aaron Jones Sr. at 31.5% is the fourth back the field likes, and he was limited Thursday with a knee and is questionable. Bucky Irving at $6,300 and 23.1% and Javonte Williams at $6,700 and 21.3% project within 4 points of Jeanty at 44.4 combined ownership points against the big three's 121.5. At quarterback, Shough at 23.1% is the cluster and Jackson is the answer; at receiver, Olave at 37.3% and Lamb at 31.9% are the clusters and Justin Jefferson at 28.9% in the least-built game is the pivot that still projects 17.9 points, and the NFL DFS primer covers why a four-game slate punishes lineups that look like the field's.

Afternoon: One $49,800 Build

Same rules: illustrative, tournament-shaped, afternoon salaries only.

Five slots come from Rio: Jackson with Bateman and Andrews, Javonte Williams and Ferguson as the two-piece Dallas bring-back. The Cowboys tight end in the flex is the roster's lowest-owned slot at 7.7% and the reason the build can afford Jefferson, the pivot off Olave and Lamb. Irving is the Buccaneers side of the least-built game, and the roster carries none of McCaffrey, Henry, Jeanty or Jones, which is the whole point. Deebo Samuel at $5,300 is the 49ers exposure that does not cost McCaffrey money, and his 18.1% climbs if Evans sits. The Saints at $3,300 project 6.8 points at 12.9%, the same as the 49ers for $300 less. The roster spends $49,800, leaves $200 on the table, projects to 125.0 Sims points and adds up to 178.3 cumulative ownership points, which is what a four-game slate does to the arithmetic; the number that matters is that none of the three 40% backs is on it.

Two practical notes before you copy any build. Every row predates the inactives: the early lists land at 11:30 a.m. ET, the 4:05 games' at 2:35 p.m. and the 4:25 games', Rio included, at 2:55 p.m.; our NFL DFS late swap guide covers what to do once the early games start. The tagged names on this page are Warren, Etienne and Jones (limited Thursday), Flowers, Coker, Moore, Collins and Evans (did not practice), Coleman (questionable) and Bowers (practicing); Daniels is out and Dart is on injured reserve. The same names carry different salaries on FanDuel; our DraftKings vs. FanDuel NFL DFS comparison covers the difference.

What The Sims Say Now That The Data Is Live

Every number on this page is the Stokastic Sims run published Thursday night, projections at 10:57 p.m. ET and ownership at 11:21 p.m. ET, the same set that feeds NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, with floor, ceiling, optimal rate and leverage for every player on all three slates. The Sims re-run as the tags clear, so check the DataHub after the inactives; how to use NFL DFS Sims is the walkthrough and the NFL DFS hub carries the daily output.

One Game, Three Prices

The slate you enter sets the price of every read before you pick a player, and the Rio game proves it: Lamar Jackson carries the same 22.4-point projection on the Main and the Afternoon at three times the ownership on the smaller slate, while the field spends its running back money on Walker, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Henry and Jeanty depending on which slate it is looking at. The best price on the page is Javonte Williams on the Main slate, a $6,700 bring-back in the highest total of the week that fewer than one lineup in 25 is rostering. What is left is Sunday's news: Flowers' hamstring decides whether Bateman stays the second Ravens receiver, Warren's shoulder decides the Main build's second back, and the Rio inactives do not land until 2:55 p.m. ET, which leaves every Ravens and Cowboys slot open to a late swap.

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