Ask The Sims Wins: A 5.3% Daniels Ticket Hit on the Nose
By Jake Hari
October 20, 2026
On Monday afternoon, a reader asked Ask The Sims how often Jayden Daniels throws for 300 yards and the Commanders still lose. The Sims said 5.3%, or +1798.
Daniels threw for exactly 300 yards, and Washington lost 23-17.
That was the longest shot to cash all weekend. Across Sunday and Monday's 13 games, 366 readers built 1,213 different parlays through Ask The Sims (1,842 asks once you count the repeats), and 231 hit. Here are ten of the winners, longest odds first, with the play exactly as each reader asked it.
| Ticket | Chance | How it hit |
|---|---|---|
| Daniels 300+ passing yards, Commanders don't win | 5.3% (+1798), Kalshi 7.1¢ | 300 yards, 49ers 23-17 |
| Rachaad White TD, Stefon Diggs TD | 6.5% (+1438), no Kalshi market | Both scored |
| Purdy 5+ carries, Purdy under 31 attempts, Kaelon Black 25+ rushing yards, Daniels under 7 carries | 7.9% (+1163), DraftKings +1194 | 5 carries, 29 attempts, 34 yards, 4 carries |
| Black 30+ rushing yards, White under 46 rushing yards, McCaffrey 2+ TDs | 7.9% (+1171), FanDuel +988 | 34 yards, 27 yards, 2 TDs |
| Hunter Henry 4+ catches, TD | 9.6% (+941), DraftKings +482 | 4 catches, TD |
| Commanders +7.5, McCaffrey 2+ TDs | 10.3% (+871), Kalshi 11.8¢ | 49ers by 6, 2 TDs |
| 49ers win by 1 to 7, under 51.5 | 11.8% (+745), Kalshi 13.7¢ | 49ers by 6, 40 points |
| Tre Tucker 60+ receiving yards, TD | 11.9% (+739), DraftKings +756 | 97 yards, 2 TDs |
| Javonte Williams TD, Packers win, Love 275+ passing yards | 12.1% (+724), Kalshi 15.0¢ | TD, 23-13, 276 yards |
| Chuba Hubbard 100+ rushing yards, TD | 13.6% (+637), Kalshi 17.3¢ | 120 yards, TD |
Thursday it's Patriots at Bears (8:15 PM ET), and Ask The Sims is already open for it. Ask yours right here:
Daniels 300 Yards in a Loss at +1798
The question came in Monday at 3:34 PM ET, on the Kalshi simulator: "jayden Daniels 300 yards passing and the commanders lose." The Sims read it as Daniels 300+ passing yards plus Commanders don't win, and had the pair at 5.3%. Kalshi's expected price for the two legs together was 7.1¢, so the Sims thought the ticket was overpriced.
It hit anyway, and it hit on the nose. Daniels went 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two touchdowns, and San Francisco won 23-17. One yard short and the ticket dies at 299.
White and Diggs Both Score at +1438
Twenty-six minutes before kickoff on Monday, a reader typed "which often does rachaad and diggs score a td." The Sims had Rachaad White 1+ TDs and Stefon Diggs 1+ TDs together at 6.5%, with no Kalshi market for the pair. White alone was 30.9% in the Sims against a 42.7¢ Kalshi price, and the Sims had the pair hitting together less often (6.5%) than if the two were unrelated (7.3%).
Both scored in the second half: Diggs on a 1-yard pass from Daniels with 15 seconds left in the third quarter, White on a 9-yard pass from Daniels in the fourth.
A 49ers 4-Leg at +1163
At 2:19 AM ET Monday, a reader asked the DraftKings simulator for the "Best 4-leg parlay if the 49ers win," and a second reader asked the same thing at 3:30 AM. The third ticket the Sims returned was Brock Purdy 5+ rush attempts, Purdy under 31 pass attempts, Kaelon Black 25+ rushing yards and Jayden Daniels under 7 rush attempts. Priced across every game, not just the 49ers wins, the Sims had it at 7.9%, or +1163; DraftKings' expected price was +1194.
Purdy ran it 5 times, exactly the number. He threw 29 passes, Black ran for 34 on 8 carries, and Daniels ran 4 times for 10 yards. The 49ers won, so the reader's condition held too.
Black, White, McCaffrey at +1171
Same ask, different venue. Two readers asked the FanDuel simulator for the "Best 3-leg parlay if the 49ers win" on Monday morning (9:22 and 10:28 AM ET). One of the three tickets was Kaelon Black 30+ rushing yards, Rachaad White under 46 rushing yards and Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs. The Sims had it at 7.9% across every game (+1171); FanDuel's expected price was +988, which made it the rare built ticket the Sims thought was underpriced.
Black got 34, White was held to 27 on 7 carries, and McCaffrey scored twice from the 1-yard line, both in the first half.
Hunter Henry 4 Catches and a TD at +941
Ninety minutes before the 1 PM kickoffs, a reader asked the DraftKings simulator for "hunter henry 4+ receptions & td." The Sims had Henry 4+ catches plus Henry 1+ TD at 9.6%. DraftKings' expected price was +482, about half the Sims' number, so this one was a pure long shot, not an edge.
Henry caught 4 passes for 48 yards, and the fourth-quarter 7-yard score from Drake Maye finished the ticket in New England's 26-19 win over the Jets.
Commanders +7.5, McCaffrey Twice
At 2:15 PM ET Monday, a reader asked for "Commanders +7.5 and Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns." The Sims turned the spread into 49ers margin under 7.5 points, paired it with McCaffrey 2+ TDs, and came back at 10.3%. Kalshi's expected price was 11.8¢, a hair rich.
The two legs pull against each other: McCaffrey scoring twice usually means a 49ers blowout. Monday it didn't. McCaffrey's two 1-yard runs built a 20-3 lead, Washington scored 14 in the second half, and the final margin was 6.
49ers by 1 to 7 and Under 51.5 at +745
Twelve minutes earlier, a different reader asked "In what % of sims does SF win by 7 or fewer AND the total stay under 51.5?" The Sims made it three legs, 49ers win by 1+, 49ers margin under 8 and total under 51.5, and had them together at 11.8%, against a Kalshi expected price of 13.7¢.
San Francisco won by 6 and the game landed on 40 points, 11 and a half under the number.
Tre Tucker 60 Yards and a TD at +739
On Sunday morning at 10:55 AM ET, a reader asked the DraftKings simulator for "tre tucker 60 yards and a touchdown." Tucker 60+ receiving yards plus Tucker 1+ TD came back at 11.9%; DraftKings' expected price was +756, so the Sims called it fair.
Tucker caught 5 passes for 97 yards and scored twice from Kirk Cousins, including a 44-yarder, in the Raiders' 33-30 loss to Buffalo.
Javonte, Packers, Love 275 at +724
Forty minutes before Sunday night's kickoff, two readers asked the same three legs, one on Kalshi and one on FanDuel: "Javonte Williams anytime touchdown + Packers moneyline + Jordan Love over 274.5 passing yards." The Sims had the ticket at 12.1%. Kalshi's expected price was 15.0¢; FanDuel's was +519.
Williams scored on a 1-yard run, Green Bay won 23-13, and Love threw for 276 yards, one yard over the line.
Chuba Hubbard 100 and a TD at +637
At 10:02 AM ET Sunday, a reader asked the Kalshi simulator for "chuba hubbard 100+ rushing yards and a td." The Sims had the two legs at 13.6%, and Kalshi's expected price of 17.3¢ was higher than that, so the Sims leaned against it.
Carolina ran the ball 28 times through Hubbard in a 25-14 win in Philadelphia. He finished with 120 yards and a 1-yard touchdown.
Three That Missed by One Leg
Four TD scorers at +8829. A reader asked the Kalshi simulator for the "Best 4 leg touchdown parlay" in Bills-Raiders. The top ticket was Keon Coleman, Tre Tucker, Dalton Kincaid and Ashton Jeanty all scoring, at 1.1% against a Kalshi expected price of 0.8¢. Coleman scored, Tucker scored twice and Jeanty scored. Kincaid caught 7 passes for 38 yards and never got in.
Purdy and Daniels both to 300 at +2686. Asked Monday at 3:28 PM ET, the Sims had the pair at 3.6%, with Kalshi's expected price at 3.4¢. Daniels landed on exactly 300. Purdy finished at 264.
Swift and Bijan two TDs each at +2226. Three readers asked this in Bears-Falcons, and the Sims had it at 4.3% against a Kalshi expected price of 7.0¢. D'Andre Swift scored twice. Bijan Robinson ran for 61 yards on 9 carries and never scored.
The Single-Leg Long Shot That Hit
Readers asked 128 different single-leg questions the Sims put at 5% or under. One hit.
| Leg | Chance | How it hit |
|---|---|---|
| Omar Cooper Jr. 4+ catches | 3.4% (+2876), no Kalshi market | 6 catches, 103 yards, TD |
The ask came in at 11:40 AM ET Sunday, 80 minutes before kickoff. Cooper caught 6 passes for 103 yards and a 48-yard touchdown from Geno Smith.
Chances are estimates from 10,000 Sims runs at the time of each ask, not guarantees. Prices move; check the live quote before you buy.
Your Turn: Patriots at Bears Thursday
Thursday night is Patriots at Bears, 8:15 PM ET at Soldier Field, and the Sims for it are already built. The Sims give Chicago a 57% chance to win; Kalshi has the Bears at about 60¢.
Ask the Patriots-Bears question you actually care about. A few that work:
- "Drake Maye 300+ passing yards and the Patriots lose"
- "Caleb Williams 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD"
- "Best 3-leg parlay if the Bears win"
More on this: Ask The Sims Wins: Winston's 1.7% Ticket Hit · NFL Week 6 Predictions: My Upset Pick Is the Browns · Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction & Props: Pickens TD at +160 · Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction: Collins TD at +170 in London · Simulation Betting 101: Find Value in NFL Props and Parlays
Ask The Sims any Patriots vs. Bears question in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator: it answers from 10,000 runs of Thursday's game, with the price beside it.
Get Started