Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction: Dak Under 2 TD Passes at +181

Prices as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:46 p.m. ET, from an early-week Sims run. Kalshi prices include the taker fee.

Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, so Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out with a rib fracture. The Buccaneers come to Arlington 0-4, and their scoring has dropped every week: 27, 19, 16, then 14 last Sunday against Green Bay.

Dallas is 2-2 and just won a 34-30 track meet in Houston, where Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes. The Sims have Dallas winning 74.9% of the time. How Dallas wins is the bet, and the one I'm buying is Prescott held under 2 touchdown passes at 35.6¢ (+181).

Three Dallas Wins

All three scripts below are Dallas wins, and each one changes the bet. The free Kalshi Combo Simulator prices every bet in the Sims that finish near a score you pick.

Rock Fight

21.1% of Sims finish with 37 or fewer points. Under 38.5 costs 26.3¢ (+280) against 22.8% in the Sims, so the game under isn't the buy here. The Dak touchdown under is.

What has to happen

• Tampa's offense stays where it has been: 19, 16 and 14 points the last three weeks.
• Dallas leans on Javonte Williams, who ran in three touchdowns at Houston, instead of the deep ball.
• Daniels protects the ball after two interceptions against Green Bay, and the clock runs.

How to bet it

My read

The simulator's best combo at this score, NO on Over 45.5, NO on Dallas by 14+ and NO on Prescott 275+, pays +479 and hits 23.9% across all 10,000 Sims. The leg I trust most on its own is the Dak touchdown under.

Shootout In Arlington

28.6% of Sims finish with 55+ points. Over 56.5 costs 27.3¢ (+266); the Sims have it at 24.5%.

What has to happen

• The Dallas defense keeps leaking. It gave up 34 to Baltimore and 30 to Houston the last two weeks.
• Prescott and Lamb need another Houston night.
• Daniels has to throw far better than he did against Green Bay: 148 yards and two interceptions. Tampa hasn't scored 24 since Week 1.

How to bet it

My read

Outside this script, Prescott 300+ is a bad price: 24.9% at 33.5¢. You're betting the shootout happens, and Lamb's 100 is the same bet.

Dallas Runs Away

28.1% of Sims end with Dallas winning by 17+. DAL wins by 17+ costs 30.4¢ (+229); the Sims have it at 28.1%.

What has to happen

• Tampa, on Daniels and without Winfield, falls behind early.
• Dallas does what it did to Washington in Week 2, a 37-20 win.
• Williams gets the second-half carries that come with a big lead.

How to bet it

My read

If you see a blowout, Williams is the way to bet it. Up three scores, Dallas hands it to him, and the 100-yard line is still priced like a normal game.

My Take

I see a Dallas win that looks more like the rock fight than Houston. Tampa can't score, and a Cowboys team up two scores runs the ball.

Buy NO on Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs at 35.6¢ (+181). That price needs 35.6%; the Sims have it at 40.1% across every game and 58.5% in a low-scoring one. Second-best: Javonte Williams 100+ rushing yards at 27.3¢ (+266), if you think it gets out of hand.

Ask the Sims your own question in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator, like "How often does Bucky Irving score if the Cowboys win by 10?"

Hero illustration: comic drawing from a Dak Prescott photo by All-Pro Reels (CC BY-SA 2.0), on an Action background. Prices: Kalshi, Oct. 6, 2026.

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