Buccaneers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay: Dak Under 275 in a +312 Ticket

Prices as of Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026, 3:05 p.m. ET. Kalshi prices including the taker fee.

Dallas wins this game a lot more often than it runs away with it. That gap is the parlay.

Tampa Bay comes to Arlington 0-4, fresh off a 17-14 loss in Green Bay, with Jalon Daniels starting while Baker Mayfield's hand heals and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. out. Dallas is 2-2 and trades as a big favorite on Kalshi. The Stokastic Sims have the Cowboys winning 74.9% of the time, but winning by 15 or more far less.

Buccaneers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay

I typed Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20 into Pick Your Game Script in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator, and it built and priced the parlays that fit that game.

Dallas Wins Without a Blowout

Three legs the Sims hit together 32.0% of the time (+213). Priced alone, they multiply to 24.3¢ (+312) on Kalshi.

The three legs are one story. Dallas stays in front but inside 15 points, which happens in 68.0% of the Sims. The game stays at 50 points or fewer, 58.6% of the Sims. And with no shootout, Dak Prescott finishes under 275 passing yards, 61.9% of the Sims.

How to bet it

My read

A Dallas win that stays inside two scores keeps the total down and keeps Dak from piling up late yards. That's why the Sims hit all three together far more often than the separate prices imply.

Irving's Touchdown Is Cheap

Bucky Irving scores a TD · 34.5¢ (+190) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 41.9%.

With Mayfield out, Tampa Bay's offense runs through Irving. He gets 14 or more carries in 49.2% of the Sims, and he catches passes too. Daniels takes some of the goal-line work himself, scoring in 25.6% of the Sims, and Irving's price still sits well under his chance.

How to bet it

My read

He's the best single bet on Tampa Bay's side, and the touchdown is priced like he's a part-time back.

Dak Stays Under 275

NO on Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards · 56.7¢ (-131) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 61.9%.

When Dallas gets ahead, it runs: Javonte Williams goes over 70 rushing yards in 58.0% of the Sims. The Cowboys average about 63.5 plays a game in the Sims, nowhere near shootout volume, and a Tampa Bay offense led by Daniels rarely forces them to throw late.

How to bet it

My read

If you only want one leg from the parlay, take this one.

The Upset Script

NO on DAL wins · 22.2¢ (+350) on Kalshi. The Sims have Tampa Bay at 25.1%, ties included.

Tampa Bay wins by 3 or more in 21.7% of the Sims. That script needs Daniels to throw a touchdown, which he does in 67.3% of the Sims, and a game under 54 points, which happens 67.5% of the time.

How to bet it

My read

I typed Buccaneers 23, Cowboys 20 to see how Tampa Bay wins. It's a real script, and the moneyline is priced like it isn't.

My Take

Buy the three-leg ticket: NO on DAL wins by 15+, NO on Over 50.5 total points and NO on Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards. The Sims hit all three 32.0% of the time; priced alone, the legs come to 24.3¢ (+312). Kalshi quotes a combo as one price, so check it there: anything under 32¢ has room.

Second-best: YES on Bucky Irving scores a TD at 34.5¢ (+190), which needs 34.5% and gets 41.9% in the Sims.

Ask the Sims your own question in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator, like "How often does CeeDee Lamb score a TD?"

Hero illustration: comic drawing from a Dak Prescott photo by All-Pro Reels (CC BY-SA 2.0), on an Action background. Prices: Kalshi, Oct. 6, 2026.