Kalshi NBA Free Agency Odds: The Player-Movement Hub
By Jake Hari
August 7, 2026
Kalshi NBA Free Agency Odds: The Player-Movement Hub
NBA player movement is the league's year-round second season, and Kalshi prices it in two live market families: 27 open next-team boards, one per star whose future is in play, and a 56-player traded-before-the-deadline market that has already settled ten contracts YES this cycle, including Jaylen Brown, Ja Morant, LaMelo Ball and Paul George. This is the permanent hub for that family, the NBA answer to our NFL trade-deadline hub. Prices below are quote midpoints fetched from the live exchange on August 3, 2026; the page rebuilds in place through opening night and the February deadline, with the "as of" stamp carrying the evidence.
The Quick Answer
The market's player-movement map today: Kawhi Leonard is the loudest call on the board, 72 cents to land in Toronto against just 26.5 to stay with the Clippers, on nearly a million contracts. Steph Curry's board is the family's biggest at about 3.28 million contracts, and it prices "stays with Golden State or retires" at 87.5, money piling into a drama the market says will not happen. Jonathan Kuminga is the most open race: Lakers 42.5, Cleveland 36, Minnesota 17.5. And the trade board's active leaders are Domantas Sabonis at 70.5 and Kawhi at 61.5 to be dealt before February 12. Every board, the two settlement windows that explain the weird-looking prices, and the fantasy translation are below.
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New to event contracts? How to bet NBA on Kalshi covers the mechanics; this page is the player-movement layer.
Two Board Shapes, Two Settlement Windows
Before reading a single price, know the two structures. Roster players get a board anchored by a "Stays with [team] or Retires" contract (Curry, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum), so the stay price is the headline. Free agents get a board where every team is a destination, incumbent included, which is why Jalen Duren's top row reads "Detroit 81" rather than "stays." And the windows differ: most next-team boards carry an October 21, 2026 listed expiration (rosters locked for opening night), while the trade market runs to February 12, 2027. That gap explains the board's strangest-looking pair: Sabonis prices at 73.5 to be in Sacramento next AND 70.5 to be traded before February, which is not a contradiction, it is the market saying he likely opens the season a King and moves at the deadline. Settlement windows are the first thing to check before calling any two prices inconsistent.
The Board: Every Live Next-Team Market
The headline table, ordered by volume. Stay% reads the "stays or retires" anchor where one exists; for free-agent boards the favorite IS the destination call.
| Player | Board favorite | Price | Implied probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steph Curry | Stays with Golden State | 87.5¢ | 87.5% | ~3,282,000 |
| Bronny James | Los Angeles Lakers | 83.5¢ | 83.5% | ~995,000 |
| Kawhi Leonard | Toronto | 72¢ | 72% | ~982,000 |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit | 81¢ | 81% | ~498,000 |
| Draymond Green | Stays with Golden State | 99¢ | 99% | ~311,000 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | Los Angeles Lakers | 42.5¢ | 42.5% | ~304,000 |
| Trey Murphy III | Stays with New Orleans | 84¢ | 84% | ~280,000 |
| DeMar DeRozan | Miami | 48¢ | 48% | ~244,000 |
| James Harden | Stays with Cleveland | 91.5¢ | 91.5% | ~177,000 |
| Kyrie Irving | Stays with Dallas | 92¢ | 92% | ~164,000 |
| Kevin Durant | Stays with Houston | 86¢ | 86% | ~139,000 |
| Anthony Davis | Washington | 87.5¢ | 87.5% | ~107,000 |
| Bradley Beal | Miami | 28¢ | 28% | ~25,000 |
Prices are quote midpoints as of August 3, 2026, 14:56 UTC, and they refresh during every rumor wave; the dated stamp is the evidence of the last pass.
Keep the movement picture connected: the Kalshi NBA playoffs hub prices what these rosters are worth once they lock (Oklahoma City leads the championship board at 21.5¢), the NFL trade-deadline hub runs the same two-family read on football (Maxx Crosby 30¢ to be dealt), and using DFS ownership leverage on event contracts is the playbook for acting on boards like these while the crowd chases headlines.
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers: The Market's Loudest Call
One board on this page has actually made up its mind about a superstar: Kawhi trades at 72 cents to land in Toronto, with "stays with the Clippers or retires" at 26.5 and no other destination above 2. The trade market corroborates the route: his traded-before-February contract sits at 61.5 cents on the board's second-biggest active volume, so the money expects a deal rather than a buyout-and-sign. Read the pair as one position: the market believes Kawhi is a Raptor by the deadline, and it has believed it with real volume, about 982,000 contracts. When a next-team board concentrates 72 percent on one destination while the stay contract collapses under 27, the tradeable question stops being whether he moves and becomes whether the remaining 28 cents of doubt is too cheap or too dear.
Steph Curry, Golden State: 3.3 Million Contracts Of Nothing Happening
The family's biggest board is a lesson in volume versus probability. Curry's market has traded about 3.28 million contracts, and the price says the drama is over before it starts: stays-or-retires at 87.5, Boston the top alternative at just 7.5. Draymond Green's neighboring board says the same thing louder, 99 cents to stay, and the two together read like the market repeatedly stress-testing a Golden State breakup story and repeatedly rejecting it. The takeaway for reading any next-team market: a rumor cycle can mint enormous volume without ever moving the stay price, and the volume column measures attention, not likelihood.
Jonathan Kuminga: The Board Worth Watching Daily
Kuminga's board is the family's only real three-way race: Lakers 42.5, Cleveland 36, Minnesota 17.5, with about 304,000 contracts behind it. No other open board splits its top two destinations within seven cents. For fantasy purposes this is three different players: the same skill set walks into three completely different usage pictures depending on which contract settles YES, which is why this is the board on this page we would check most often between now and October 21. A price run in any direction here is the market processing real information about where the minutes will be.
The Trade Board: Ten Deals Already Graded
The traded-before-February market (56 contracts, about 48,400 traded) settles on one rule, quoted from the contracts: "If [player] is traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes." Ten contracts have already settled YES this cycle: Jaylen Brown, Nic Claxton, Luguentz Dort, Ja Morant, LaMelo Ball, Jerami Grant, Isaiah Joe, Miles Bridges, Grayson Allen and Paul George. The active leaders now: Sabonis 70.5, Myles Turner 69, Kawhi 61.5, Trey Murphy 59, Brandon Ingram 50.5. One honesty note before anyone trades this board: below the leaders sits a wall of contracts all quoting about 49 cents on zero volume (Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner and a dozen more), which is a market maker's blanket quote, not an opinion about any specific player. On thin boards, always check volume before reading a mid as information.
The Locks: What A Settled Situation Looks Like
The family's calibration rows, useful precisely because they are boring: Nikola Jokic prices at 96 to be in Denver, Jayson Tatum 97 to stay in Boston, Joel Embiid 95 in Philadelphia, Devin Booker 93 in Phoenix, Austin Reaves 98.5 with the Lakers, De'Aaron Fox 94 to San Antonio, and Trae Young 97 to Washington. Boards like these are what the Kawhi and Kuminga markets are measured against: the exchange can price certainty when certainty exists, which makes the boards that refuse to settle into the 90s the ones carrying actual information.
The Fantasy Translation
This hub lives on Stokastic because every contract above is a usage forecast wearing a price. The mechanics: a star's landing spot resets two teams' hierarchies at once (a Kawhi-to-Toronto settlement reprices every Raptor and every Clipper the same morning); the Kuminga three-way race is a three-outcome minutes question the market updates daily while ADP sources update weekly; and the trade board's active leaders are a deadline-risk list for anyone drafting Sabonis or Ingram in a season-long league. DFS players get the fastest version of the edge: the morning a move breaks, salaries and props lag while these boards have already repriced, the exact window our ownership-leverage playbook is built for. Once lineups actually lock, Stokastic Prop Tools carries our nightly projections against live player markets.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| October 21, 2026 | Most next-team boards hit listed expiration as opening-night rosters lock |
| October 23, 2026 | Bronny James's dated board settles |
| February 12, 2027 | The traded-before-deadline market settles; every deadline deal grades here |
| June 2027 | The rosters these boards built get graded on the playoffs boards |
We re-score this page when the story moves; prices above are as of August 3, 2026, 14:56 UTC.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, and availability varies by state as of August 2026.
- Liquidity. Volume runs from 3.28M contracts (Curry) to boards under 1,000; the 49-cent quote wall on the trade board is the cautionary example. Untraded mids are decoration.
- Mechanics. Next-team and traded-by are different events on different windows; a player can re-sign in July and still be traded in January, and both boards settle honestly.
- Not advice. Market prices are data, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Our AI panel's numbers on linked verdict boards are model estimates graded on the public model verdict scoreboard.
The Bottom Line
Twenty-seven boards, one sorting principle: most of the league's stars are priced as settled (Jokic, Tatum, Embiid, Curry in the 90s or close), a handful are priced as decided movement (Kawhi to Toronto at 72, DeRozan to Miami at 48 as the favorite), and exactly one board is a live three-way argument (Kuminga). The trade market has already proven it settles for real, ten graded deals and counting. We rebuild this hub in place through the deadline, and every price swing between now and February is a depth-chart forecast you can read before it reaches a fantasy site's update cycle.
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Prices as of August 3, 2026, 14:56 UTC, fetched from the live Kalshi exchange; settled trade results read from the exchange's finalized contracts the same run. Market rules quoted verbatim from the contracts. This page carries market data and editorial context; model estimates on linked verdict boards are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.