NFL Trade Deadline Odds: The Live Player-Movement Board

The NFL rumor mill runs on anonymous sourcing; the prediction market runs on money, and right now the money is specific. Kalshi prices NFL player movement in two market families: a 55-contract board asking whether each named player is traded before December 1, 2026, and 13 open next-team markets that price every destination for stars like Maxx Crosby, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Together they are a live, tradeable version of the trade-deadline conversation, and they have already settled two answers: the Myles Garrett and A.J. Brown contracts on the traded-before-December board have both resolved YES. This is the permanent hub for those markets. Prices below are quote midpoints fetched from the live exchange on August 3, 2026; the page refreshes through the deadline window with the "as of" stamp carrying the evidence.

The Quick Answer

The market's deadline board today: Maxx Crosby trades at 30 cents to be moved before December 1, on the trade board's biggest active volume, while his separate next-team market prices "stays in Las Vegas or retires" at 68, the two boards agreeing almost exactly. Tyreek Hill is priced at just 41.5 cents to stay in Miami, with Kansas City the 22-cent favorite destination. Stefon Diggs is the board's most decided situation: 2 cents to stay in New England, with Washington at 60. And among fantasy-relevant names, Brian Thomas Jr. trades at 26 cents and Brandon Aiyuk at 20.5 to be dealt before December. The full board, the next-team breakdowns and the seller math are below.

New to event contracts? How to bet NFL on Kalshi covers the mechanics; this page is the player-movement layer.

Two Market Families, One Question

The traded-before-December board (55 contracts, about 81,600 contracts traded) settles on one rule, quoted from the contracts: "If [player] is traded before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." The next-team markets price where a player lines up next, destination by destination, with a "stays or retires" contract anchoring each board. Read them together, because they answer different questions: Diggs is 98 cents to leave New England on his next-team board but only 17 cents to be traded before December, a gap that says the market expects him to change teams by some route other than an in-season trade. That distinction, trade versus any move, is exactly the kind of thing a rumor tweet blurs and a settlement rule does not.

The board has also already done its first grading: Garrett and Brown both settled YES before August. Contracts here resolve on real transactions, and two of the offseason's biggest moves paid out while the rumor cycle was still arguing about them, which is why we treat this family as a data source and not a rumor aggregator.

The Traded-Before-December Board

The narrow board first: the most-traded active contracts and the two settled ones. A liquidity warning that applies to everything below: several contracts on this board quote mid-price levels on zero volume (Jonah Elliss shows 53 cents without a single contract traded), and an untraded quote is a market maker's opinion, not a verdict. The rows here are the ones with real money behind them.

Prices are quote midpoints as of August 3, 2026, 14:56 UTC, and they refresh during every news wave; the dated stamp is the evidence of the last pass.

Keep reading the deadline picture with the exchange's neighboring boards: the NFL win-total ladders price which rosters are sellers (Miami's 4.5 implied wins is the league's lowest), the NFL Draft 2027 hub prices where the tank race ends (Arizona 36 cents to pick first), and the fantasy football prediction markets hub maps every market family a fantasy manager can actually use.

Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders: The Cleanest Two-Board Read

Crosby's situation is the reference case for how to read these markets, because his two boards agree. The trade board says 30 cents to be moved before December; his next-team board, the family's biggest at about 2.8 million contracts, prices "stays with Las Vegas or retires" at 68, which implies roughly the same one-in-three chance of movement. The destination money is concentrated: Dallas at 17.5 cents, then a step down to Philadelphia at 4.5 and San Francisco at 3. When two independently settled markets land on the same probability from different directions, that number reflects real conviction rather than one thin book's quote. The seller context fits too: Las Vegas carries 6.5 implied wins on the win-total ladders, bottom-six in the league.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: The Market's Biggest Mover Bet

Hill's board runs to December 31 and prices "stays with Miami or retires" at just 41.5 cents, which makes him the most movement-priced star in the family: the market puts nearly 3-in-5 odds on him wearing a different uniform. Kansas City is the 22-cent favorite destination on the board's biggest destination volume (about 62,400 contracts), with the Chargers at 6.5, Baltimore at 6 and Las Vegas at 5.5. The macro read is coherent: Miami sits at 4.5 implied wins, the lowest number on the exchange's win-total ladders, and teams priced like that trade veterans. For fantasy managers, this is the board to watch: a Hill move to an AFC contender reprices two receiving corps at once, and the market is telling you it is closer to a coin flip than a long shot.

Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots: Priced As Already Gone

The Diggs board is what a market looks like when it has made up its mind: "stays with New England or retires" trades at 2 cents. Washington is the 60-cent favorite for his next team, Indianapolis takes 26, Buffalo 13. Note the mechanics gap flagged above: his traded-before-December contract sits at only 17 cents, so the money expects a release or an offseason move rather than an in-season deal. When a next-team board is this lopsided, the tradeable question is no longer whether he moves but which destination is mispriced, and a 26-cent second choice on a board whose favorite sits at 60 is where that argument lives.

The Rest Of The Next-Team Family

Thirteen boards are open in the family. The others worth a line: Aaron Rodgers trades at 95 cents to Pittsburgh with "retires/no team" at 6.5, so the market treats his situation as settled. T.J. Watt prices at 87 to stay in Pittsburgh, with New England the only destination above a few cents. Kayvon Thibodeaux is the quiet interesting one: 51 cents to stay with the Giants, a 29.5-cent trade-board contract, and a spread-out destination book led by San Francisco at 14.5, an honestly open situation on real volume. Joe Burrow at 98.5 to stay in Cincinnati is the family's sanity check. The remaining boards (Alec Pierce, Rashid Shaheed, Kyle Pitts, Davante Adams, Josh Allen, Brendan Sorsby) are thinner, and several quote destination prices on little or no volume; treat those mids as decoration until money shows up.

The Seller Math

Deadline trades need sellers, and the exchange prices the seller list directly. The win-total ladders put Miami at 4.5 implied wins, Arizona at 4.6, the Jets at 5.6, Cleveland at 5.9, Las Vegas at 6.5 and Tennessee at 6.6, and that bottom tier reads like a who-owns-the-movement-board index: Miami is Hill's team, Las Vegas is Crosby's, Cleveland already moved Garrett, and the Jets hold Breece Hall's 13.5-cent trade contract plus Garrett Wilson at 19. The cross-check runs through the draft-order market too: Arizona at 36 cents to pick first and Miami at 18 are the same teams the trade board expects to be open for business by November. When a team's win total sags and its stars' trade contracts firm up together, that is the market building a seller narrative out of two independent order books.

What A Deadline Move Does To Fantasy Value

This hub sits on Stokastic because player movement is a fantasy repricing event. The mechanics: a traded receiver's target share resets against a new depth chart (the market pricing Hill to Kansas City at 22 cents is implicitly pricing a usage question for every Chiefs pass catcher), a traded running back's value follows his new offensive line and game script, and the fantasy managers holding Brian Thomas Jr. (26 cents traded) or Breece Hall (13.5) are carrying deadline risk they can actually see priced now. DFS players get the sharper version: the day a deal breaks, sportsbook props and DFS salaries lag while these boards reprice in minutes, and the ownership-leverage playbook covers how to act on exactly that window.

Settlement Timeline

The in-season trade deadline falls inside the December 1 window, which is why that date anchors the family. We re-score this page when the story moves; prices above are as of August 3, 2026, and my rule for reading a mid-week jump is in the liquidity note below.

How To Read These Prices

• Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook.
• Liquidity. Volume is wildly uneven: Crosby's next-team board holds ~2.8M contracts while several boards quote destinations on zero trades. Untraded mids are decoration, and my rule for a sudden mid-week jump is to check volume first: a quote that moves on zero trades is a market maker re-quoting, not news.
• Mechanics. "Traded before December 1" and "next team" settle on different events; a player can leave without a trade. Read the pair before acting on either.
• **Not advice. Where our AI panel prices related boards, those are model estimates graded on the public model verdict scoreboard.

The Bottom Line

The trade-deadline conversation usually runs on sourcing and speculation; this one runs on order books that have already paid out twice. The market's current story is coherent from three directions: the league's worst-priced rosters (Miami, Arizona, the Jets, Las Vegas) own the movement boards, its two loudest veteran situations (Crosby, Hill) price at one-in-three and three-in-five to move, and its most decided board (Diggs) has collapsed to a destination argument. We rebuild this hub in place as boards settle and new names list, and once moves actually land, Stokastic Prop Tools is where the fantasy repricing shows up against live lines every slate.

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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the Stokastic prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.

Prices as of August 3, 2026, 14:56 UTC, fetched from the live Kalshi exchange; settled results (Garrett, Brown) read from the exchange's finalized contracts the same run. Market rules quoted verbatim from the contracts.

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