The Post-LeBron East: 8 AI Models Score All 15 Conference Contenders
By Jake Hari
July 27, 2026
TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Philadelphia (31%), Miami (25%), New York (20%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our public scoreboard.
LeBron's move to Philadelphia reshaped the East board overnight: the 76ers lead at 23 cents with the Knicks at 21 and a truly open field behind them. Every model scored every team with its complete current roster fetched at generation time: which is how the panel knows exactly who surrounds LeBron, Embiid, and Maxey, and why several of the models still rank Cleveland's returning core right with them.
How The Panel Read It
Two reads separate the panel from the price. First, Miami: the roster card shows Giannis alongside Bam, and Anthropic's three Claude models put the Heat at 20-26 percent on the Giannis-Bam pairing while GLM, Kimi and DeepSeek run higher still, lifting Miami's blend to second behind Philadelphia; the market has them further back. Second, the LeBron effect: the panel's 31 on Philly is real respect, but nearly every rationale pairs it with the same caveat stack: Embiid's health, LeBron's age, fit. A superteam priced on paper, discounted for physiology.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Miami: market 8¢, AI blend 25% (17 points above the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Giannis and Bam form an elite two-way superstar duo, making Miami a top contender in a competitive Eastern Conference."
Orlando: market 4¢, AI blend 14% (10 points above the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Orlando's roster with Banchero, Bane, Wagner, and Vucevic is a strong contender, likely a top-3 East team, giving them roughly a 22% chance to win the conference."
Philadelphia: market 23¢, AI blend 31% (8 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "Adding LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to Embiid and Maxey creates an overwhelming superteam that makes them heavy Eastern Conference favorites despite injury risks."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 23¢ | 31% | 31% | 30% | 22% | 12% | 65% | 15% | 25% | 45% |
| Miami | 8¢ | 25% | 26% | 20% | 26% | 14% | 22% | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| New York | 21¢ | 20% | 18% | 22% | 22% | 11% | 23% | 28% | 16% | 18% |
| Cleveland | 7¢ | 15% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 15% | 15% |
| Orlando | 4¢ | 14% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 22% |
| Boston | 15¢ | 12% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 22% | 13% | 10% |
| Indiana | 7¢ | 10% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 9% |
| Washington | 3¢ | 9% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 18% | 5% | 10% | 2% |
| Detroit | 8¢ | 5% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 0.3% | 3% | 5% | 1.5% |
| Toronto | 9¢ | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1.8% |
| Atlanta | 4¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 0.1% |
| Milwaukee | 1¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.2% | 3% | 1.5% | 4% |
| Chicago | 1¢ | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.5% | 3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte | 3¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Brooklyn | 1¢ | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our public scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.