Seahawks vs. Broncos Polymarket Parlay: A 16¢ TNF Combo That Hits in 21% of Sims

My Seahawks vs. Broncos Polymarket parlay is three legs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores, Seattle wins by 4+, and Sam Darnold throws 2+ touchdown passes. It hits in 21.2% of our 10,000 Sims. Expect a quote around 16¢ (about +525), and I'm buying at 19¢ or less.

Combos on Polymarket get one quote for the whole ticket, not the legs multiplied. On the Sims' number this one is worth about 21¢, so 19¢ still clears the fee.

One catch: this ticket needs Smith-Njigba, and he's questionable with an ankle injury. Got a backup plan? Punch it in below for the hit rate and the price to pay. Free:

Why the Three Legs Stack

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A $10 ticket at 16¢ returns about $62 if all three hit.

Multiply the three leg prices (44¢, 42¢, 43¢) and you get about 8¢. Don't expect that, because these legs move together. Smith-Njigba scores in 62% of the Sims where Seattle wins by 4+, and 44% of the rest. When both happen, Darnold has his 2+ touchdown passes 75% of the time.

It helps that Denver's top two corners, Pat Surtain II (doubtful) and Riley Moss (questionable), may not be there to cover him.

Tweak it: [Broncos fan? Flip it to a Denver win](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs and Broncos win) [Emanuel Wilson instead of Smith-Njigba?](ask:Emanuel Wilson scores a TD and Seahawks win by 4+ and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs)

The Long Shot Adds the Over

Add Over 42.5 points and it hits in 12.8% of the Sims. The expected quote is 9.0¢ (about +1000), so $10 returns about $111. I'd buy it at 11¢ or less.

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On its own the over is a coin flip. With the other three legs in, it clears 60% of the time.

Tweak it: [Bo Nix 150+ passing yards instead of the over?](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Seahawks win by 4+ and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs and Bo Nix 150+ passing yards) [Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards instead?](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Seahawks win by 4+ and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards)

The Nix Leg I Skipped

Earlier today, the simulator's best parlays all carried Bo Nix 15+ rushing yards. The latest Sims have him at 56%, and the only seller on Polymarket wants 52¢ with no real bid. He cleared 15 yards in 21 of 34 games over 2024 and 2025, and that's the runner the Sims seem to price.

This year he's run for 2, 6, 7, 10 and 10. Five straight games under 15 is enough for me to leave it out. Think the Sims have it right? [See the Nix combo](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Bo Nix 15+ rushing yards)

Build Your Own

Don't like a leg? Swap it in the Polymarket Parlay Simulator, or start here:

• Game script: [best parlay if Seattle wins by 10+](ask:best parlay if Seahawks win by 10+)
• Long shot: [best TD scorer parlay](ask:best TD parlay)
• Higher hit rate: [Seattle just wins, not by 4+](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Seahawks win and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs)

If Smith-Njigba is ruled out, we re-run the Sims. For his touchdown on its own, see Seahawks vs. Broncos Polymarket props.

Polymarket prices read Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 4:56 p.m. CT. The Sims are 10,000 runs of the game from 4:40 p.m. CT. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday on Prime Video.