Seahawks vs. Broncos Polymarket Props: Smith-Njigba TD at 44.7¢

Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores in 51.4% of our Sims, and his touchdown costs 44.7¢ on Polymarket. That's the biggest gap on the Seahawks-Broncos board, and my top buy.

On Polymarket you buy YES at the price shown and collect $1 if it hits, so 44.7¢ is about +124 on a touchdown he scores more often than not in the Sims. But he's questionable with an ankle injury, and YES loses if he doesn't play.

Ask the Sims your own Thursday night question. It's free:

Single-bet prices are Polymarket asks with the taker fee in, Wed. 4:43 p.m. CT · 10,000 Sims run at 2:59 p.m. CT · Kickoff Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Smith-Njigba Scores Win or Lose

He has seven touchdowns in five games, and Denver's top two corners may not play: Pat Surtain II is doubtful and Riley Moss is questionable.

He was limited in both estimated practices this week, and Wednesday's report wasn't out when I wrote this. The best bid is 3¢ right now, so if he's scratched, there's no getting out whole.

He scores in 59% of the Sims where Seattle wins and 42% where Seattle loses, so you don't need Seattle to win. I picked the same bet at +110 on DraftKings in my Seahawks vs. Broncos props page, and 44.7¢ pays more. I'm buying YES now with a limit at 46¢, since good ankle news would push the price up. If he's active when inactives post at 6:45 p.m. ET Thursday, I'd pay up to 48¢.

See it on Polymarket in the Sims → Tweak it: [Does he score if Seattle loses?](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD if Seahawks lose) [What about 2+ TDs?](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores 2+ TDs)

Seattle by 4+ Beats the Moneyline

Seattle wins 57.6% of the Sims at a 57.7¢ moneyline, so that's priced right. The spread ladder isn't:

Going from 3+ to 4+ saves 9¢ and only gives up the games Seattle wins by exactly three, about 6% of the Sims. Buy YES on Seahawks -3.5 at 42.7¢, up to 45¢.

See it on Polymarket in the Sims → Tweak it: [SEA by 7+ instead?](ask:Seahawks win by 7+) [Best 3-leg combo with it?](ask:Best 3-leg combo with Seahawks win by 4+)

One Ticket for Both

Smith-Njigba scores and Seattle wins by 4+ in 28.0% of the Sims. The simulator expects Polymarket to quote that combo around 22.8¢, and I'd pay up to 25¢.

See it on Polymarket in the Sims → Tweak it: [Swap in Darnold 2+ TD passes?](ask:Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD and Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs)

Build Your Own

Three starters for the Polymarket simulator:

• [Does Bo Nix throw for 200+ if Denver wins?](ask:Bo Nix 200+ passing yards and Broncos win)
• [Under 42.5 total points](ask:Under 42.5 total points)
• [Emanuel Wilson 60+ rushing yards](ask:Emanuel Wilson 60+ rushing yards)